NORTH ATLANTIC COUNCIL READOUT JUNE 25, 2008

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 USNATO 000224

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2018
TAGS: NATO PREL AF
SUBJECT: NORTH ATLANTIC COUNCIL READOUT JUNE 25, 2008

Classified By: CDA Richard G. Olson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (S) SUMMARY:

-- Afghanistan: SHAPE briefed on recent events in Kandahar
and Arghandab, emphasizing the role of the ANA and the fact
that Arghandab was clearly a tactical and logistical win for
the ANA. Responding to the briefing, Charge Olson emphasized
the importance of the ANA and suggested the need for a
larger, stronger ANA. Acting NATO Senior Civilian
Representative (SCR) in Kabul Jochems relayed a conversation
in which NSA Rassoul and MOD Wardak expressed a loss of faith
in the ability of the Pakistani government and military to
address its border challenges, and urged NATO to demonstrate
to Pakistan it was in Afghanistan "to win." Charge Olson and
the Secretary General (SYG) stressed the need for ISAF and
the NAC to address proactively the security needs for the
Afghan elections now that an August start for voter
registration had been agreed in Kabul. The oft-briefed issue
of rising violence in RC-East drew particular focus and
questions from PermReps. The Danish PermRep asked what NATO
could do to dispute spurious charges of civilian casualties
leveled at international forces by UN Special Rapporteur
Alston. SHAPE briefed on immediate plans for the 24th Marine
Expeditionary Unit in Garmsir and current ISAF planning to
backfill when they leave in October. The German PermRep
announced plans to increase Germany,s Afghan deployment cap
by 1,000 forces, to remain focused on the North, and Denmark
noted it intends to deploy an OMLT, double development aid,
and do more as part of its Afghanistan Strategy for 2008-2012.

-- Balkans: The CMC reported that meetings between KFOR and
Serbian military authorities continue despite the Serbian
CHOD,s cancellation of his meeting last week with COMKFOR.
General Wright from SHAPE reported on heightened tensions
between Kosovo Albanians and Kosovo Serbs. General Wright
also reported that UNMIK had increased the number of its
police by approximately 135 in Mitrovica.

-- Africa: Spanish PermRep expressed his view that the NAC
needs to be more engaged on Africa issues and asked for a
briefing on Somalia.

-- Iraq: Nothing discussed.

-- Response To Terrorism: Director of the NATO Office of
Security (NOS) Mike Evanoff and Assistant Director of the
International Military Staff (IMS) for Intelligence Karen
Laino, briefed the NAC on the activities of the Terrorist
Threat Intelligence Unit (TTIU) in 2007 and the Work
Programme for 2008.

-- Statements on Political Subjects: The Slovenian PermRep
provided a readout of NATO-relevant outcomes of last week,s
European Council meeting.

-- AOB: PE Review: The Chairman of the Military Committee
(CMC) informed the NAC that the Military Committee would not
finalize its work on phase 2 of the Peacetime Establishment
Review by the end of June and proposed setting a new
September 2008 timeline. The SYG noted that the underlying
reasons for the delay have a "strong political dimension,"
and cautioned that Defense Ministers should have the final MC
report in advance of the October Budapest.

-- Farewell to Chairman of the Military Committee: The SYG
bid farewell to Chairman of the Military Committee General
Henault, noting his three years as a driving force behind
NATO,s evolution and expansion, and commending him for his
efforts in operations, expanding partnerships and initiating
the Comprehensive Approach.

END SUMMARY

--------------
AFGHANISTAN
--------------


2. (C) KANDAHAR PRISON BREAK/ANA CAPABILITIES: SHAPE DCOS for

USNATO 00000224 002 OF 005


Operations MG Wright briefed that COMISAF,s main priority
for the past week has been supporting Afghan National
Security Forces (ANSF) in their response to the June 13
attack on Kandahar,s Sarpoza prison in which several hundred
Taliban fighters were freed. Noting that media reports of
OMF fighters massing in Kandahar,s Arghandab district were
greatly exaggerated, he acknowledged the negative impact the
prison break had initially on Afghans, confidence in their
government, but said that the Afghan army,s quick response
had done a lot reassure the population. In a logistical move
"that would have been good for any of our armies, in any
circumstance," ISAF and the ANA Air Corps moved three ANA
kandaks, (roughly battalion-equivalent),a brigade HQ, and a
120-strong French embedded training team (OMLT) from Kabul to
Kandahar, where they immediately began operations in an
unfamiliar environment. CMC General Henault and the SYG
commended ISAF,s strategic communications effort, citing
that BBC, CNN, and other major outlets had all aired combat
camera footage of ISAF and ANA in action following the prison
break, thanks to the new "NATO TV" capability in theater.


3. (C) The Canadian PermRep praised the ISAF and ANA response
to the prison break, but noted that given ISAF and ANA force
shortfalls, troops had to be pulled from other tasks and
operations and sent to Kandahar. He pointed to a familiar
dilemma: how would ISAF and ANSF hold this ground in
Arghandab that had been efficiently cleared? Charge Olson
agreed the excellent performance of the ANA had been key, and
noted its increasing prominence and importance in operations
throughout Afghanistan. He asked MG Wright if there were
enough ANA forces at present, and how their op tempo was
affecting their capability. MG Wright responded that ANA op
tempo was "extreme" as a result of limited numbers, and cited
the growing problem that as CSTC-A graduates more kandaks
from basic training, many are without embedded trainers (U.S.
ETTs or ISAF OMLTs).


4. (S) NATO/PAKISTAN: CMC Henault cited decreasing pressure
by the Pakistan military (Pakmil) on militants in the border
region resulting from Pakistani government negotiations and
deals with militants. He and MG Wright pointed to the
existence of a known, active Taliban training facility in
Torkham, Pakistan as an indication of the freedom of
operation OMF enjoy in Pakistan. Acting Senior Civilian
Representative Jochems, who participated in the NAC via DVC,
gave the Council a readout of a discussion he and visiting
NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General Pardew had recently
with NSA Rassoul and MOD Wardak, in advance of Pardew,s June
25 travel to Islamabad. He conveyed that the two Afghan
leaders realize the need for good relations with Pakistan,
but had lost confidence in the ability of both the civilian
government and Army Chief of Staff Kayani to take effective
action in the border regions. Jochems said that he and
Ambassador Pardew had asked about what, if any, leverage NATO
had on Pakistan and the messages Pardew should deliver.
Rassoul and Wardak highlighted: the Pakmil would likely be
more responsive to arguments from their Arab financiers and
China rather than the West; international pressure on
Afghan-Pakistani interactions, such as the jirga process,
Tripartite Commission, and Border Coordination Centers, can
be useful; NATO must show Pakistan it is serious about
Afghanistan and is in Afghanistan "to win;" public rhetoric
by officials of the two countries should be ratcheted down;
Pakistan,s civilian government needs to raise the priority
of its engagement in the border regions and realize its
importance to Pakistan,s national interest.


5. (C) The UK, Italian, and Turkish PermReps commented on a
workshop they had attended on June 21 in Rome, in which
Pakistan,s United Nations PermRep had participated. UK
PermRep Eldon commented that the Pakistani had made almost
every argument that Rassoul and Wardak had, except in
reverse, and predictably defended his government,s
negotiations with militants. Italy urged the SYG to go to
Islamabad soon and stated that the Pakistani UN PermRep
seemed to be in a state of denial. Turkey argued for
continued engagement, despite frustrations with the current
Pakistani government. Spain pointed out the danger of the
SYG traveling during the uncertain political environment in

USNATO 00000224 003 OF 005


Islamabad, asking "who is running Pakistan?" In response to
a Dutch question, MG Wright noted that ISAF,s supply lines
from Karachi remain fully open, despite recent threats by
Pakistani militants to kill truck drivers who deliver
supplies to international forces in Afghanistan. The
Canadian PermRep stated that NATO needs a "structured
relationship with the civilian side in Pakistan" in order to
complement the military Tripartite Commission relationship,
and asked that COMISAF brief the NAC prior to August on his
efforts to revive the high-level TPC dialogue. The SYG
reiterated his intent to have an in-depth discussion among
PermReps, in order to develop the message he will give to
Pakistani officials when he travels, at a
yet-to-be-determined date following DASG Pardew's return from
Islamabad.


6. (C) ELECTIONS: Charge Olson highlighted A/SCR Jochems,
June 24 report to the NAC that the Afghan government had
finally reached an agreement that would allow security
planning for voter registration to advance, starting perhaps
as soon as August 2008. He stated that the Council should
closely follow this, and examine, with appropriate military
input, whether ISAF would need additional resources to play
its part, and whether the ANA had enough resources to fulfill
its role. SYG de Hoop Scheffer strongly supported this
intervention, concluding that the NAC should begin
proactively mapping out the run-up to 2009 elections, and
identifying questions and challenges.


7. (C) VIOLENCE IN RC-EAST: The issue of increasing violence
in RC-East has become a prominent topic in NAC discussions
over the past weeks. CMC Henault briefed that the level of
OMF activity in RC-East at present was double the level of
this time one year ago. He stated that Kunar and Paktika
provinces were most active due to their presence on the
border near main OMF support bases in Pakistan, but MG Wright
also briefed on an increase in attacks in RC-East,s "inner"
provinces. In response to a UK question, MG Wright stated
that the majority of incidents were OMF-initiated, but noted
SHAPE was working to standardize various reporting databases
in order to get a more accurate picture of this in the
future. Bulgaria expressed concern at mounting violence in
the east, stating that irrespective of how one parsed it, OMF
activity in RC-East was on the rise and there was a need "to
act more efficiently." COMISAF will meet with Pakistan Army
Chief Kayani later this week, Wright reported, to discuss the
border region and seek to revive high-level TPC talks.


8. (C) CIVILIAN CASUALTIES: The Danish PermRep cited the
recent report that UN Special Rapporteur on Extrajudicial
Executions Philip Alston delivered to the UN Human Rights
Council, in which he charged that international forces in
Afghanistan had killed 200 civilians in the first four months
of 2008. He asked if NATO could release estimates of
civilian casualties caused by ISAF, versus those caused by
OMF. The SYG stated that according to NATO statistics, the
OMF had killed 300 civilians so far this year, and ISAF had
killed 20. Without addressing the issue of public
releasability, he assured the NAC that NATO is actively
engaging Alston on this issue.


9. (C) OPERATIONS UPDATE: In his operational overview, MG
Wright noted that the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit has
changed plans to establish FOB Rhino on the Kandahar/Helmand
border given its success in Garmsir, and will instead seek to
consolidate gains and prepare the ANSF to establish an
enduring presence in southern Kandahar. ISAF is presently
planning to backfill the MEU when it leaves in October with
an ANA kandak, and elements of UK Task Force Helmand. MG
Wright noted increased OMF activity in Farah and parts of
Nimroz province, as OMF maneuver around the MEU in Garmsir en
route to northern Helmand.


10. (C) OTHER INTERVENTIONS: The German PermRep told the NAC
the German government intends to increase its troop ceiling
by 1,000 up to a total of 4,500 when the ISAF mandate is
debated in the Bundestag in mid-October. He stated this
increase is due to the German takeover of the RC-North QRF,
the withdrawal of forces from RC-North by other nations,

USNATO 00000224 004 OF 005


German intentions to increase ANA training, and the need for
flexibility in the run-up to 2009 elections in Afghanistan.
He was careful to note that German planners do not
necessarily intend to plus up to the full 4,500. He was
clear: the German focus will remain on RC-North. The Danish
PermRep informed the NAC that his government had recently
approved an Afghanistan Strategy for 2008-2012, which will
double Danish development aid, strengthen efforts for ANA
capacity building (Denmark plans to deploy a garrison OMLT by
2009),increase troop levels to 750 from the current 665, and
also deploy a field hospital and commo equipment.

--------------
BALKANS
--------------


11. (C) The CMC reported that despite the Serbian CHOD,s
cancellation of his meeting with COMKFOR last week, the
meeting of the Joint Implementation Committee was still held
on June 19. General Wright said that tensions between Kosovo
Albanians and Serbs had increased since the June 15 entry
into force of the Kosovo Constitution, but had not resulted
in any outbreak of violence. Wright noted that the upcoming
K-Serb celebrations and marches to mark the anniversary of
the Battle of Kosovo Polje on June 28 and the intention of
the Serbs to convene a parallel assembly on the same day
would also contribute to tensions. As a result, KFOR has
raised its security posture and will continue to conduct an
increased operational tempo to ensure the safe and secure
environment. Lastly, General Wright informed the Council
that UNMIK had increased the number of its police with the
deployment of a formed police unit of approximately 135
personnel in Mitrovica. In response to a Dutch question
regarding the willingness of UNMIK police to deal with the
tense security situation, Wright said that the fact that
UNMIK has not melted away is a good sign, but that one cannot
gauge personnel readiness or willingness until they are faced
with a challenge. The SYG concluded by saying that his
discussions with COMKFOR had left him with the impression
that KFOR could be called on very quickly if there is a
complete breakdown in security.

--------------
Africa
--------------


12. (C) The Spanish PermRep said that the frequent lack of
comments on Africa during meetings of the NAC was
insufficient in light of NATO,s support to the African Union
and the "appalling" developments in Sudan and Somalia. He
requested that the NAC receive a briefing on Somalia and
Sudan. The SYG responded that A/SYG Martin Erdmann is
contacting the UN this week to discuss Africa, and proposed
organizing written reports on the situation in both countries.

--------------
Response to Terrorism
--------------


13. (C) NATO Office of Security (NOS) Director Mike Evanoff
and Assistant Director of the International Military Staff
(IMS) for Intelligence Karen Laino provided the third annual
report of the NATO Terrorist Threat Intelligence Unit (TTIU).
TTIU is jointly directed by Evanoff and Laino, and they
noted that TTIU is unique in reporting to both the civilian
and military sides of NATO. Its mission is to report on
existing and emerging threats. In 2007 it provided 44
reports, and is slated to provide 32 during 2008 (though the
number will rise due as the unit responds to requests for
specific reporting). With staffing at a premium, TTIU
welcomes its national experts (Voluntary National
Contributions) and its interns. TTIU has been a tool for
outreach to Partners and now has programs with MD, ICI, and
PfP formats as well as Australia and New Zealand. Six of the
seven MD countries participate, because Egypt has not yet
signed a security cooperation agreement with NATO )
something that Evanoff is working with the Egyptians to
address. In this context, Evanoff urged Allies to consider
whether more of their domestic intel products could be

USNATO 00000224 005 OF 005


released to Allies and Partners. Looking ahead, Evanoff
noted that Al Qaeda and its associated groups will continue
to be a focus of reporting, as will state-sponsored terrorist
groups such as Hezbollah. There is likely to be continued
activity by separatist/nationalist groups and by groups with
environmental/social causes. Evanoff commented that the
threat to Europe from Pakistani extremists remained a focus.


14. (C) U.S. Charg Olson welcomed the good cooperation
between IMS and IS and asked about TTIU,s resources, to
which Evanoff responded that he would like to expand the
staff. The SYG seconded Evanoff's call for more resources,
albeit for NATO as a whole. Turkish Ambassador Ildem
requested TTIU provide a follow up to its December 2007
report on the PKK and commented that, while TTIU,s products
are not formally agreed by all 26 Allies, they still should
not be written so as to be a source of contention. German
Ambassador Brandenburg requested a report on terrorist
radicalization and recruitment. Canadian Ambassador McRae
requested that analysis of ISI links to terror groups be
included in the scheduled Pakistan report.

---
AOB
---


15. (C) Review of NATO Peacetime Establishment: CMC informed
the NAC that the first draft of Phase II of the PE Review was
circulated to Allies on June 6, but it looks unlikely that
the report would be finalized by the Military Committee by
the end of June deadline set by Defense Ministers. The CMC
portrayed the draft as a significant improvement over the
status quo in NATO,s military command structure, but said
there had been extensive comments from nations ranging from
refinements to questions on affordability, civilianization,
outsourcing, and other issues. The CMC proposed setting a
new September 2008 timeline (a formal request will be
submitted to the SYG shortly) and urged bringing the review
to conclusion ASAP.


16. (C) The SYG noted that the underlying reasons for the
delay have a "strong political dimension". The SYG cautioned
that Ministers should have the final Military Committee
report in advance of the October 2008 Defense Ministerial.

-------------- -
Farewell to Chairman of the Military Committee
-------------- -


17. (U) The SYG bid farewell to Chairman of the Military
Committee (CMC) General Henault, noting the CMC,s three
years as a driving force behind NATO,s evolution and
expansion, and commending him for his efforts in operations,
expanding partnerships and implementing the Comprehensive
Approach. General Henault expressed his thanks to the SYG
and colleagues. Gen Henault will retire after leaving his
post next week and will be replaced by Italian Admiral
Giampaolo di Paola.

OLSON