PM SANADER DISCUSSES CROATIA'S NATO ACCESSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 USNATO 000022

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2018
TAGS: PREL MARR NATO PREF PINR HR
SUBJECT: PM SANADER DISCUSSES CROATIA'S NATO ACCESSION
PROSPECTS WITH PERMREPS JANUARY 16

REF: A. STATE 4239

B. NATO 11

C. ZAGREB 24

D. PO(2008)0003(CRO) E-MAILED TO EUR/RPM EUR/SCE
EMBASSY ZAGREB

Classified By: Charge Richard G. Olson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) Prime Minister Sanader discussed with NATO PermReps on
January 16 Croatia's progress in meeting NATO,s
performance-based standards. He stressed that all parties in
the governing coalition supported joining the Alliance, and
that the new government would expand its contribution to
ISAF, work closely with the U.S. and EU as a non-permanent
member of the UNSC, and continue to cooperate closely with
its neighbors to maintain stability in the Balkans. Allies
welcomed those points, while stressing the need to address
unfinished business -- broadening public support for NATO
accession, completing judicial reforms, implementing
legislation to benefit individuals in minority groups,
finalizing refugee returns, and meeting defense spending
targets. Addressing those points in turn, Sanader expressed
confidence that public support for NATO would rise further as
the government spread the message that the Alliance "is not
just about security, but about values, democracy, and human
rights." End Summary.

CROATIA'S NEW TEAM
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2. (C) Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader, accompanied by
his new Foreign Minister Gordan Jandrokovic and Defense
Minister Branko Vukelic, discussed Croatia's performance
under the sixth Membership Action Plan (MAP) cycle with the
North Atlantic Council (NAC) on January 16. Sanader pointed
out that meeting the NAC was the new team's first diplomatic
action, reflecting the consensus among coalition parties on
seeking accession to NATO.

A REGIONAL MODEL
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3. (C) Sanader cited Croatia's contributions to NATO-led
operations and other peace support activities, its accession
to a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council, support
for regional stability, and the successful conclusion of the
OSCE mission in Zagreb as demonstrating the nation's
contributions to building stability and its readiness to join
the Alliance. He pointed to good economic figures and
reaffirmed the government's commitment to allocate 2 percent
of GDP to defense by 2010. Addressing other challenges cited
in NATO's MAP Progress Report (REF D),Sanader described
progress in building public support for NATO membership and
prosecuting war crimes. He noted that all eight minority
group Members of Parliament were in the governing coaltion,
and said refugee returns were going well. The PM promised to
continue these reforms beyond NATO's April Summit in
Bucharest, taking special care to emphasize that Croatia
would not stop its reform efforts if it were to receive an
invitation to join the Alliance at Bucharest. In a show of
regional solidarity, Sanader expressed his conviction that
fellow NATO Aspirants Albania and Macedonia would do the same.

REMAINING CHALLENGES
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4. (C) Ambassador Nuland drew on guidance (REF A) to
congratulate Sanader on his re-election and welcome Croatia's
contributions to NATO-led operations. She noted its strong
performance on MAP objectives, including housing for
returning refugees and the battle against corruption. At the
same time, she stressed that broadening public support for
NATO accession (still around 50 percent) was an important
remaining challenge. She also cited the need for continued
progress on refugee returns, judicial reforms, and meeting
spending and deployability targets. She urged Sanader to
"sprint to the finish," a theme that the SYG picked up in his
closing remarks and even used in the follow-on press
conference.

NO "NO" VOTES
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5. (C) The 21 other Allied representatives who spoke were
united in their appreciation for Croatia's contributions to
peace support operations, as well as in their congratulations
to Sanader on the formation of his government. Hungary,
Italy, Norway, France, Estonia, and Spain were particularly
supportive of Croatia,s membership aspiration, clearly

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signaling their intention to support an invitation at
Bucharest. While also very supportive, the Czech Republic,
Romania, and Bulgaria cited areas from the MAP report calling
for further progress -- meeting defense spending targets,
implementing judicial reform and minorities legislation,
fighting corruption, and building public support for NATO.


6. (C) The UK, Netherlands, Germany, and Turkey put a more
critical focus on those issues and other unfinished business,
while Slovenia also criticized its establishment of a
protected ecology and fishing zone in the Adriatic. (Italy
made clear in previous discussions that it shares this
complaint, but did not raise it in the NAC.) Greece and
Norway stressed that each Aspirant would be judged on its own
merits, while Spain called for a "regional approach" to NATO
enlargement. No Ally raised any intelligence-related issues,
and none suggested that Croatia would be denied an invitation
at Bucharest.

SANADER RESPONDS: MANAGING REGIONAL, OTHER CHALLENGES
-------------- --------------

7. (C) In response to a number of Allied questions about
regional stability, Sanader said that Croatia's relations
with its neighbors were focused on that goal. While
asserting that the status quo in Kosovo was not sustainable,
he voiced his own "deep conviction that the unity of the EU
and NATO is more important" than the specifics of Kosovo's
final status arrangements. Sanader cautioned Allies against
allowing any unrest in Kosovo to spill over to Bosnia and
Herzegovina. In response to questions about relations with
Serbia, he noted that he had appointed a Croatian Serb as
Deputy PM, the first time any Serb had been represented in
the GOC since 1991, and said he had excellent personal
relations with both President Tadic and PM Kostunica. He
expressed hope that Tadic would be re-elected against a
strong challenge from the Radical Party.


8. (C) On Croatia's plans for participating in the UN
Security Council, he pledged to work closely with the U.S.
and EU. Finally, on broadening public support for NATO, he
pointed out that it had risen from a low of 30 percent to its
current 50 percent, and claimed to be "confident and
satisfied" that it would rise further as the government
spread the message that the Alliance "is not just about
security, but about values, democracy, and human rights."

BIO NOTE - NEW FOREIGN POLICY ADVISER
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9. (U) The Croatian Mission told us that Sanader has selected
Davor Ivo Stier, their DCM since July 2006, as his new
foreign policy adviser. Stier is a career diplomat who
joined the Croatian Foreign Service in 1996, serving in the
Protocol Directorate (1996-1997),the North America
Department (1997-1998),Washington (1998-2002),and the
International Security Department (2002-2003). Before
joining the MFA, Stier was a radio correspondent in Buenos
Aires, where he was born on January 6, 1972. He is married
with three children.


OLSON