IAEA/BOG: THREE, POSSIBLY FOUR, MESA SEAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L UNVIE VIENNA 000461

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR IO/T AND ISN/RA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2018
TAGS: PARM KNNP PREL AORC IAEA KZ AF SY IR
SUBJECT: IAEA/BOG: THREE, POSSIBLY FOUR, MESA SEAT
CONTENDERS

Classified By: Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte for reasons 1.4 b and d

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Summary
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1. (SBU) Summary: Iran announced its candidacy for an IAEA
Board of Governors seat 2008-2010 during a regional group
meeting August 14 that also addressed the Syrian and Afghan
candidacies. Arab members of the Middle East/South Asia
(MESA) group, nine of the current 15 members, continued to
back Syria in accordance with a March 2008 Arab League Summit
decision. In response to observations by Pakistan and others
that Syria had submitted its candidacy early, in January, the
Indian Chair clarified, at Afghanistan's request, that there
was no deadline for submission of candidacies.


2. (C) Given the composition of the group and the Indian
Chair's neutral stance, it was unsurprising that no one
backed Afghanistan. Afghanistan's Charge believes that Iran
and Syria orchestrated Iran's play. However, it is also
possible that Iran saw the contested field as an opportunity
to make an improbable run for the Board in the same way it
has recently trumpeted its improbable candidacy for the UNSC.
Indian, Kazakh and other contacts provide us conflicting
views on Kazakhstan's eligibility and viability as MESA
candidate. Afghanistan may not be able to win but its
candidacy is keeping the game open, perhaps for another state
to challenge Syria successfully. End summary

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Indian Chair Offers Advise for Afghanistan
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3. (SBU) During a conversation with Ambassador Schulte on
August 16, Indian Ambassador Kumar confirmed that Iran
submitted its candidacy for the Board at the August 14 MESA
meeting. According to Kumar, Iran argued that it had not had
the opportunity to serve on the Board in recent years. Kumar
now expects a lot of "shadow-boxing" in Vienna, demarches in
capitals, and a lot of brinksmanship before the September
General Conference that will decide Board composition.


4. (C) Kumar said he believed the MESA candidacy will go to
a vote at the General Conference, although there could be a
chance of a last-minute withdrawal by Syria if it expects a
resounding defeat. As MESA chair, Kumar does not want to
advise the Afghan Charge, who he characterizes as young and
ambitious, but he recommended that the USG advise Afghanistan
it must be hardened for a tough flight to the end, show that
its candidacy is serious and not a last-minute idea (neither
of the ambitious Charge's nor USG),demonstrate that the
candidacy has full backing in Kabul, and start demarching in
capitals and not just Vienna.

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But is There Still a Chance for Kazakhstan?
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5. (C) In a separate August 18 conversation with Ambassador
Schulte, Kazakh Ambassador Abdrakhmanov said his country's
candidacy for the MESA seat depended on Indian Ambassador
Kumar, who, the Kazakh asserted, had promised to take all
"formal and informal" steps to bring Kazakhstan into MESA.
Abdrakhmanov said he would submit a formal application to
MESA if Kumar advised him this was necessary, or he would
proceed directly to submit Kazakhstan's Board candidacy if
Kumar advised that Kazakhstan were accepted into MESA without
a formal application. Abdrakhmanov thinks MESA would welcome
Kazakhstan as a member, with the possible exception of Syria,
which might argue that Kazakhstan should be a part of the
Eastern European group. Abdrakhmanov expected Kumar to
contact him August 18 or 19 with further recommendations.


6. (C) Ambassador Kumar also noted that he found it highly
unlikely that MESA would agree to admit Kazakhstan at this
point because, he thought, the Arab League would oppose
competition for the Syrian candidacy, and Pakistan would
oppose competition for its candidacy next year. Kumar
continued that, "this (excluding Kazakhstan from MESA) is one
issue on which there would be unanimous agreement."

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Comment
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7. (C) We have succeeded in the short-term goal of

derailing Syria's intent to ride the Arab consensus to an
uncontested election to the Board. There remains confusion
over Kazakh membership in MESA. If the MESA seat comes to a
vote in the General Conference, which seems increasingly
likely, votes for Iran or Syria could potentially cancel one
another out. It is not at all clear that Afghanistan could
win in a straight-up election, but its candidacy serves for
now to keep the door open for another potential candidate to
challenge Syria for the seat either within MESA or in a GC
vote among regional candidates.
SCHULTE