IAEA/IRAN: ELBARADEI SEES PROGRESS FROM TEHRAN TRIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L UNVIE VIENNA 000020

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR IO/T AND ISN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2018
TAGS: KNPP IAEA PARM AORC IR
SUBJECT: IAEA/IRAN: ELBARADEI SEES PROGRESS FROM TEHRAN TRIP

REF: UNVIE 0006 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte for reasons 1.4 b,d, h

1.(C) Summary: DG ElBaradei told the Ambassador January 14
that his weekend discussions in Tehran resulted in progress
and agreement to resolve all outstanding issues within four
weeks. The Iranians provided information on new generation
centrifuges and allowed him to visit the P2 R&D facility. He
reported that Supreme Leader Khameni acknowledged the
importance of AP implementation (if the nuclear file is moved
back to the IAEA) but denied any military nuclear program,
past or present. ElBaradei saw no movement on suspension.
He described the Iranian leadership as open to negotiations,
even suggesting that we expand U.S.-Iran-Iraq talks to
include the nuclear issue, but also deeply suspicious of the
West. ElBaradei also observed that a UNSCR prior to the
March elections could strengthen hard-liners in Iran.
Separately, the German Ambassador told us that FM Steinmeier
is expected to meet with ElBaradei January 16-17 and will
provide his P5 1 counterparts a readout prior to next week's
meeting in Berlin. IAEA public comment on the Tehran visit
was restrained. Full text of the IAEA press statement is in
para 9. End Summary


ElBaradei Sees Progress
--------------


2. (C) In a January 14 telcon with Ambassador Schulte,
ElBaradei reported progress on outstanding issues and advised
that the contamination issue was basically done. The
Iranians agreed to address, over the next four weeks,
military-related issues, including the weaponization studies,
PHRC and Gachin mine. When asked about FM Mottaki's public
statements postulating a March finish date, the DG confirmed
the four-week timeframe, though he was very tentative in
calling it a "deadline." ElBaradei described Iran as "more
transparent" and reported that, "in a good step," he and
Safeguards DDG Heinonen were allowed access to an R&D
facility for new generation centrifuges. According to the
DG, this was a new facility, not previously visited by the
IAEA. (Note: We will confirm this with Heinonen.) It was
small-scale, containing computers, equipment and rotors, and
there was mechanical testing underway. The DG offered a
personal assessment that Iran would not undertake industrial
scale enrichment (i.e. beyond 3000 centrifuges) until new
generation centrifuges were ready.


3. (C) The DG told Ambassador Schulte that he pushed his
Iranian interlocutors on provisional implementation of the
Additional Protocol, and argued for suspension or a
"freeze-for-a-freeze." Supreme Leader Khameni accepted the
importance of the AP but said that it would only be applied
if Iran's nuclear file were returned from the UNSC to the
IAEA. ElBaradei assessed that progress on the AP was
"conceivable" but there was no indication of any movement on
suspension, which he attributed to a fundamental lack of
trust.


4. (C) Overall, ElBaradei found the Iranian leadership open
to negotiations, even offering to expand U.S.-Iran-Iraq talks
to include the nuclear issue. He described Ayatollah Khameni
as affable and well-briefed but suspicious of U.S. and
Western motivations and readiness to conduct serious
negotiations. The Supreme Leader insisted that Iran never
had a weapons program. President Ahmadinejad was not at the
meeting with Khameni, but ElBaradei saw no difference in
their positions.


5. (C) ElBaradei also observed that the March 6 election
would improve the internal situation in Iran with the
expected election of a centrist Parliament. Unnamed "highly
influential people" in Iran cautioned that a UNSC resolution
in advance of the election would only strengthen the hand of
the hard-liners. (Comment: ElBaradei continues to put much
emphasis on internal political divisions in Iran.)

Steinmeier to Vienna
--------------


6. (C) German Ambassador Gottwald advised DCM that Foreign
Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier will be in Vienna January
16-17 for meetings with ElBaradei and his team. Steinmeier
is making this visit in order to be able to report first hand
on ElBaradei's trip to P5 counterparts at the meeting the
Germans are expecting to host the week following in Berlin.


Public Line Muted
--------------


7. (SBU) IAEA public comment on Iran was limited. The DG's
only interaction with the press while in Tehran was after
meeting with AEOI Director Aghazadeh on Friday. ElBaradei
was reported as saying that they discussed accelerating the
pace of cooperation to clarify all outstanding issues before
his March report to the Board. He reportedly described the
talks as "frank and friendly" and asked for maximum
transparency and assurances to clarify past and present
issues. He hoped this would "provide an atmosphere to
overcome the standoff between the P5 1 and Iran." An IAEA
press statement issued upon the DG's return noted two
developments: agreement on the four-week timeline for work
plan implementation and information provided by Iran
regarding new generation centrifuges. The statement also
mentions discussion of AP implementation and other confidence
building measures called for by the Security Council (full
text in para 9). The Spokesperson's office indicted that
there would not be further information.



8. (C) DCM spoke January 14 with IAEA spokeswoman Melissa
Fleming, who confirmed that the Agency was working very hard
to minimize public comment beyond the January 13 statement.
Asked about the statement's reference to information on new
generation centrifuges, she indicated that Heinonen had
gotten "lots of detail" and was able to "see one of them."
She added that the Iranians had passed information in a
separate Heinonen meeting, not in discussions with ElBaradei.
She conceded that Heinonen had been skeptical (as he was
with us) about this recent trip, but noted EXPO Director
Cserveny (who also made the trip) was very upbeat about
prospects for resolving the outstanding issues.


9. (U) Text of IAEA press statement:

Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, IAEA Director General, accompanied by
Mr. Olli Heinonen, Deputy Director General for Safeguards and
Mr. Vilmos Cserveny, Director for External Relations and
Policy Coordination, visited Teheran from January 11 to 12,

2008.

During meetings with senior officials, that included meetings
with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni and President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, discussions took place on ways and means
to accelerate implementation of safeguards in Iran as well as
additional confidence building measures. While progress in
the implementation of the work plan agreed between the IAEA
Secretariat and Iran in August 2007 was noted, an agreement

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was reached on the time-line for implementation of all the
remaining verification issues specified in the work plan.
According to the agreed schedule implementation of the work
plan should be complete in the next four weeks.

During the visit discussion also took place on the importance
of the implementation of the Additional Protocol as well as
on other confidence building measures called for by the
Security Council. Furthermore, Iran also provided
information on its research and development activities on a
new generation of centrifuges.

End text.
SCHULTE