IAEA/DG SELECTION: PFIRTER JOINS AMANO IN THE RACE

S E C R E T UNVIE VIENNA 000164

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR IO, IO/T, ISN/MNSA, ISN/NESS, ISN/RA, EAP, WHA
THE HAGUE FOR CWC DEL, AMBASSADOR JAVITS
DOE FOR NA-24 SHEINMAN, MENDELSOHN, DALTON, GOODMAN,
SIEMON/O'CONNOR
NE FOR MCGINNIS, PEKO, LISANN, SYZMANSKI
NA-20 FOR CONNERY
NRC FOR OIP- DOANE, HENDERSON, SCHWARTZMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2018
TAGS: AORC IAEA KNPP JA AR
SUBJECT: IAEA/DG SELECTION: PFIRTER JOINS AMANO IN THE RACE

REF: UNVIE 739 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte for Reasons
1.4 b and d


1. (S) Summary: This cable is provided solely for the
purpose of updating the Department on the state-of-play on
IAEA DG succession. Consistent with previous instructions,
Mission is not engaging publicly or privately in this
campaign. The campaign for DG succession has coalesced
around two more or less declared candidates, Japanese
Ambassador Yukiya Amano and OPCW DG Rogelio Pfirter
(Argentina). Amano has solidified Asia group support for his
candidacy and Japan expects U.S. support, though we have not
taken a position. Argentina has also approached Ambassador
Schulte, who remained non-committal about Pfirter, and has
begun to lobby other Board members. If Pfirter wins the
support of GRULAC, two regional groups may be pitted against
one another, which could pave the way for an in-house
candidate. Both EXPO Director Vilmos Cserveny and Safeguards
DDG Olli Heinonen have been mentioned as potential DG
candidates. ElBaradei has not indicated interest in a
re-election bid, but neither has he ruled it out. He has
until the October 2008 Board meeting following the General
Conference to announce his intentions. Procedures for
selecting the DG are likely to be circulated to the Board in
September, at which time the Secretariat would expect the
Board to ratify the procedures. End Summary.

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Potential Amano-Pfirter Face-off
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2. (S) Japanese Ambassador Amano's candidacy has gained
momentum in the last few months, with the strong support of
his government. According to Australian Ambassador Shannon,
Amano has solidified Asia group support (Note: This would
indicate that former Australian FM Gareth Evans is not in the
running. End note.) Japan has pulled out all the stops for
Amano, even inviting African Board of Governors members on
all expense paid junkets to Tokyo. Japanese DCM Sumi
recently approached DCM about Amano's candidacy, possibly in
response to the prospect of an Argentine candidacy. DCM
reiterated that the U.S. is not taking a position and
reminded him that, as Ambassador Schulte had cautioned Amano,
U.S. support could be counterproductive. Sumi nevertheless
surmised that Japan expected the U.S. eventually to back
Amano.


3. (S) While some Vienna diplomats had earlier mentioned the
possibility of OPCW DG Rogelio Pfirter's candidacy, shortly
before the March 3 Board meeting, Argentina began actively
campaigning on his behalf. During the meeting, Argentine
Ambassador Curia approached Ambassador Schulte saying that
Argentina was exploring Pfirter's candidacy with Board
members and "traditional" allies in the region. Pfirter's
former Chief of Staff Rafael Mariano Grossi of the MFA
accompanied Curia, who explained that Pfirter had all the
right qualities and was well-respected for his record of
managerial accomplishment in The Hague. Ambassador Schulte
stipulated, per instructions, that the U.S. is not backing
any candidate for IAEA DG but noted that U.S.-OPCW Ambassador
Javitz held Pfirter in high regard. Grossi and Curia were
busy lobbying at the Board meeting, systematically pulling
aside other key Governors such as the UK and Germany. Curia
said they would approach about three-quarters of the Board.
Argentina is also working on GRULAC members. According to
Board Chair and Chilean Ambassador Skoknic, Pfirter is
well-known in Southern Cone countries but not as well in the
broader Vienna-GRULAC group.


4. (S) If Pfirter wins GRULAC support, GRULAC and the Asia
group could be pitted against one another. It is not clear
that "Asia group" support for Amano extends to the Middle
East South Asia group (MESA). Another factor to consider is
G-77 support on the Board. A successful candidate for DG
must win a two-thirds majority on the Board. The DG has not
indicated that he would seek a fourth term, but has until the
October 2008 Board meeting following the General Conference
to formally announce. A disputed election could also pave
the way for other internal candidates, and both Safeguards
DDG Heinonen and EXPO Director Cserveny have been mentioned
in this regard.

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Timeframe
--------------


5. (C) Skoknic insists on deferring the DG succession race
until the end of his tenure as Board Chair in September 2008.
It is possible that the DG selection will therefore be
overseen by Abdul Minty of South Africa, who appears to be
the leading Africa group candidate for Board Chair in
2008-2009.


6. (U) During the September Board meeting prior to the GC,
the Board Chair will circulate the procedures for appointment
of the DG, which were first adopted in 1997 and are not
expected to be controversial. The Board will also set the
deadline for applications, likely to be December 31, 2008.


7. (U) Under the procedures, the item "Appointment of the
Director General" is placed on the agenda of the Board
immediately following the 2008 General Conference. During
that Board meeting in October, the Board Chair will announce
whether the DG is or is not available for a further term of
office.


8. (U) The Board Chair will report in the March 2009 Board
meeting on his consultations regarding the candidates. The
June Board will elect the next DG, who must win two-thirds
majority support in closed session balloting.


9. (U) The September 2009 General Conference approves the
appointment, and the new DG takes office on January 1, 2010.

Comment
--------------


10. (S) As the DG race goes into full swing, it will be
increasingly difficult for the U.S. to remain on the
side-lines. The Japanese seem poised to make this a
bilateral issue. Already a well-placed South Korean diplomat
said that he had heard "from Washington" that Pfirter was the
U.S. preferred candidate. Mission denied any such rumor and
will continue to dodge the question whenever posed. As the
race tightens, however, one or the other leading candidate
will seek and expect U.S. support, even if a public
endorsement is counterproductive.
SCHULTE