Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ULAANBAATAR381
2008-08-07 10:20:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Cable title:  

DISAGREEMENT CRESTS BETWEEN MONGOLIAN PARTIES OVER

Tags:  PREL PGOV KCOR EMIN SOCI MG 
pdf how-to read a cable
R 071020Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY ULAANBAATAR
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2414
INFO AMEMBASSY BEIJING 
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 
AMEMBASSY SEOUL 
AMEMBASSY TOKYO 
NSC WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L ULAANBAATAR 000381 


STATE FOR EAP/CM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KCOR EMIN SOCI MG
SUBJECT: DISAGREEMENT CRESTS BETWEEN MONGOLIAN PARTIES OVER
OATH-TAKING

REF: ULAANBAATAR 373

Classified By: Ambassador Mark Minton, Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L ULAANBAATAR 000381


STATE FOR EAP/CM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KCOR EMIN SOCI MG
SUBJECT: DISAGREEMENT CRESTS BETWEEN MONGOLIAN PARTIES OVER
OATH-TAKING

REF: ULAANBAATAR 373

Classified By: Ambassador Mark Minton, Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) Over five weeks have passed since violent protests
left five dead and hundreds injured, landed nearly 200
protesters in detention without being charged, and burned the
HQ of the Mongolian People,s Revolutionary Party (MPRP).
The political situation has not moved far beyond allegations
stemming from each party,s behavior in the days following
the June 29 elections. The current political impasse sparked
by the Democratic Party,s (DP) refusal to allow its recently
elected MPs to take the oath of office has refused to break.
Although the DP and the MPRP have agreed in recent days on a
number of legislative and constitutional priorities to take
up once the new parliament convenes, they have come no closer
to a solution that would satisfy the electoral concerns of
the DP. Since President Enkhbayar will be at the Beijing
Olympic Games from August 7 to 11 and he is required chair
the first session of a new parliament, the DP and MPRP now
have a few days, breathing room. Whether they will use this
time to gird for more battle or to seek a face-saving
compromise remains to be seen. End Summary.

THE DP'S CONCERNS
--------------


2. (U) On August 7, POLOFF spoke with Z. Enkhbold of the DP,
who led the DP,s five-person working group that last met on
Monday to attempt to resolve the oath dispute. Enkhbold
stated that the two parties were essentially in agreement
regarding the legislative priorities they discussed in the
five meetings of the working groups. (Note: These topics
included election reform, constitutional amendment proposals,
campaign finance reform, and new laws regarding the civil
service meant to enshrine a merit-based system. End Note.)


3. (C) However, despite their progress on these matters,
Enkhbold indicated the impasse is due to the MPRP,s
rejection of the DP,s assertion that Battulga, the head of
the General Election Commission (GEC),acted without the
consent of his GEC peers when he announced amended election
results on July 14 that gave three more seats to the MPRP.

(Note: Battulga is an MPRP member. End Note.) The election
results as originally announced by the GEC on July 10 gave 36
of the 76 seats in parliament to the MPRP. Battulga,s July
14 announcement added three seats to that total and created a
majority for the MPRP. Enkhbold emphasized to POLOFF that
Battulga was not only incorrect in acting unilaterally on
July 14, but also in violation of election law (specifically,
Article 51.2) that states the GEC must present election
results to the president within fifteen days of the election.
(Comment: Although the issue has not been pressed directly
with the GEC, post suspects the GEC would view the July 14
announcement as an extension of its duly announced July 10
results that could not be fully detailed on the 10th due to
tallies in certain districts that were and still are being
resolved. End Comment.)

THE DP's FRAUD CONCERNS
--------------


4. (C) Enkhbold explained his concerns regarding voting
fraud. He cited statistics such as the registration of 5,000
voters in District 26 on the day of the election. Because
registering for the election after June 15 required extensive
paperwork to demonstrate the voter,s extraordinary need to
register later than the general deadline, Enkhbold argued the
surprisingly large number of people able to meet this onerous
demand immediately prior to or on the day of the election
smelled of fraud. He also cited similar statistics about PM
Bayar,s district, saying that fully one quarter (11,900
people) of those who voted there also managed to register in
the immediate run-up to the vote.


5. (C) Enkhbold,s strongest words were saved for last. He
stated if the DP MPs were to take the oath under the present
circumstances, this would be a validation of both the MPRP,s
assertion that the July 1 post-election violence was a
&terrorist event8 and of the &massive falsification8 that
took place at the polls.

THE MPRP'S ANGLE ON THE OATH
--------------


6. (C) POLOFF also spoke the same day with Sukh. Batbold, the
wealthy MPRP party member whose name has been mentioned by
personnel at the Mongolian Embassy in Washington as a
possible Foreign Minister candidate. Batbold said the MPRP
is &ready to start any time,8 meaning take the oath. He
made the same comments as Enhkbold with respect to the
working group negotiations that delineated topics for the new
parliament, such as the legal environment, necessary
constitutional amendments, and a mining law, saying the two
parties were &almost on the same page.8 He also clarified
that the nine-point agreement that resulted from the working
groups had been signed by all five MPRP members and forwarded
to the DP for its five signatures. He had not heard if the
DP has yet signed.

MPRP KEEPING A LOW PROFILE
--------------


7. (C) Batbold took an intentionally conciliatory tone,
saying the MPRP &does not want a monopoly over any issue.8
He also made a point of using terms like &our friends in the
DP.8 When pressed as to what he thinks the DP is hoping to
get out of the oath standoff, Batbold said the DP was perhaps
hoping for a long-shot chance at forming a coalition
government based on the July 10 election results. However,
Batbold said the more likely reason is that DP leader
Elbegdorg does not want to be seen as a complete failure and
is looking to recover some ground by taking the high road of
decrying electoral injustice. He said the DP,s standoff was
Elbegdorj,s &personal agenda8 for not wanting to lose
face.


8. (C) Batbold also noted that since this is after all summer
in Mongolia, people are generally relaxed and not in a hurry
to see their government form ) the people don,t mind if the
parliament takes its time. This contrasted with Enkhbold,s
urgency and lengthy explanation of voting irregularities.

VICTIMS, FAMILIES APPEAL TO THE DP
--------------


9. (C) According to a separate discussion with Batbayar (the
public relations chief of the DP),the families of the five
Mongolians killed during the post-election violence have
asked the DP not to take the oath of office, claiming that
the police and state are guilty in the matter and must not be
absolved by allowing the election results to produce a new
parliament.

NO PRESIDENT, NO PARLIAMENT
--------------


10. (U) Parliamentary Secretariat member Ms. Narantuya (also
a former GEC member who left that post prior to the election)
confirmed for POLOFF that President Enkhbayar must chair the
opening session of the new parliament. Since he will be in
China until August 11, no oath can be taken until then.


11. (C) Comment: Since the MPRP is well positioned to gain a
majority in parliament once all disputed districts are
tallied (regardless of whether the July 10 or July 14 results
form the basis),the DP may simply be looking to take the
apparent high road by pushing the electoral irregularities
into the public spotlight for as long as possible. Both
sides appear ready to wait this out for a few days longer
since the president will be away. The public apparently does
not yet view the DP as obstructionist, but if the DP
considers such a moment to have come, it may then back away
from the high road of indignation it is now pursuing. End
Comment.


MINTON