SCENESETTER FOR THE SECRETARY'S VISIT TO TUNISIA

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 TUNIS 000962

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR S, S/ES, NEA AND NEA/MAG FROM AMBASSADOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PMIL PHUM TS
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE SECRETARY'S VISIT TO TUNISIA

Classified By: Ambassador Robert F. Godec for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Madame Secretary, my team and I look forward to your
visit to Tunis. President Ben Ali and Foreign Minister
Abdallah are delighted you are coming and will provide a warm
welcome. They will want to hear your thoughts on regional
issues and to reaffirm strong US-Tunisian relations. For us,
your visit is an opportunity to welcome Tunisia's moderation
and its economic and social progress. We recommend you
stress the value of our excellent, long-standing ties, but
add that more is possible. If the Tunisians make progress on
US concerns, we would be ready to respond in ways that
address Tunisian interests.


2. (C) Specifically, your visit will allow you to:
-- welcome Tunisia's moderate positions on key regional
priorities while seeking greater GOT engagement;
-- commend recent progress on counterterrorism cooperation,
but urge further steps;
-- ask Ben Ali for assurances on humane treatment for past
and future detainees transferred from Guantanamo;
-- underscore the need for more political reform against the
backdrop of Tunisia's 2009 presidential and legislative
elections; and,
-- offer the GOT an additional $4.1 million in military
assistance that will help in the fight against terrorism.
End Summary.

--------------
Background
--------------


3. (C) Tunisia styles itself "a country that works". Ben Ali
and other Tunisian leaders often contrast their successes
with the problems elsewhere in the region. There is much in
what they say. While Tunisians grumble privately about
corruption by the First Lady's family, there is an abiding
appreciation for Ben Ali's success in steering his country
clear of the instability and violence that have plagued
Tunisia's neighbors. Recent events have underscored this
accomplishment and the continuing threat: Tunisian security
forces took down a terror cell in December 2006-January 2007;
we were reportedly among the group's targets. In late
February, al-Qaeda in the lands of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
kidnapped two Austrian tourists who were in the desert along
the Tunisian-Algerian border.


4. (C) Tunisians also widely recognize, and welcome, the
country's social successes. Tunisia is a model for the
region on women's rights; its 1956 Personal Status Code
abolished polygamy and required consent for marriage, among
other protections. Women today play an important role in the
public and private sectors.


5. (C) There is also real economic progress. GDP growth has
averaged five percent over the past decade, and the Tunisian
people enjoy a relatively high standard of living. About 80
percent of Tunisians are considered middle class, and live in
family-owned homes. Notwithstanding the progress,
unemployment remains very high, officially estimated at 14
percent. But it is generally acknowledged to be higher in
certain regions and much higher in the 20-30 age bracket,
particularly among university graduates. The average
Tunisian's purchasing power is under pressure due to world
commodity price increases. These strains have manifested
themselves most acutely through protests and arrests in the
southern mining basin of Gafsa province. The GOT responded
with a very heavy show of force.


6. (C) In the political arena, however, progress is barely
perceptible. Ben Ali announced recently that he would be
running for a fifth term in Tunisia's next elections, most
likely in October, 2009. There is no chance the elections
will be free or fair; freedom of expression and freedom of
association are severely constrained, and independent
opposition parties are not allowed to operate effectively.
Indeed, one authentic opposition candidate is no longer
eligible to run, due to a recent constitutional amendment.
When asked about political freedom, Ben Ali will insist the
GOT is making progress, but that it takes time. He may point
to such steps as the lifting of the prior review of books and
newspapers. While welcome, the GOT has often found ways to
limit the impact of such advances.

-------------- --
President Ben Ali and Foreign Minister Abdallah

TUNIS 00000962 002 OF 004


-------------- -


7. (C) President Ben Ali wil welcome your visit and
meeting. He wil wish to spend much time on regional issues,
including developments in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations,
Iraq, Lebanon, Iran and Mauritania. He may also emphasize,
as he has done in other recent discussions, that US-Tunisian
political ties are strong, but that we should do more to
deepen our economic links. If Ben Ali is "on his game," he
will be affable, open and engaged. Ben Ali will have just
turned 72, however. He reportedly has health problems and
they may affect the quality and tenor of the meeting.


8. (C) Foreign Minister Abdelwaheb Abdallah is delighted that
you are coming. He speks fondly of his previous
interactions with you,including during his June, 2007 visit
to Washington and at the Annapolis Conference. Abdallah can
be charming in meetings, but he rarely departs from standard
GOT talking points. He has been known to open his meetings
with lengthy soliloquies about Tunisia's political, social,
and economic successes and moderate positions on regional
issues. This is the spin that Abdallah himself crafted
during his years as Presidential Advisor responsible for
domestic media control and international media spin. During
his three-year tenure as Foreign Minister, Abdallah has
maintained significant influence -- if not control -- over
the local media.

--------------
International/Regional Issues
--------------


9. (C) Tunisia is like-minded on Iran, recognizes the
importance of restoring stability in Iraq before the
Coalition departs, and backs the Annapolis negotiations on
the Israeli-Palestinian situation. The GOT has maintained
its Embassy in Iraq with a Charge d'Affaires, and has
provided some training to GOI officials. However, the GOT
assiduously avoids getting out in front of the Arab League
consensus on most foreign policy issues. Moreover, when
other interests are at stake, the GOT is prone to waffle.
Ben Ali surprised us by attending the Arab League summit in
Damascus this spring, after telling A/S Welch that he would
not go.


10. (C) It is not clear that the GOT has a guiding principle
for its foreign policy other than to "get along with
everyone." The GOT has declined to condemn publicly the coup
d'etat in Mauritania, although it has signaled its private
objection. Likewise, it has been silent on Russia's recent
military actions in Georgia. To the extent that GOT leaders
speak in generalities about their moderate foreign policy
stance, we remind them that Tunisia's moderation does not
help us, unless its views are made public and its influence
is used actively in international fora.

--------------
Guantanamo Detainees
--------------


11. (S) Based on humane treatment and security assurances
provided by the GOT, the United States transferred two
Guantanamo detainees in June, 2007. Following the transfer,
credible allegations surfaced that one of the detainees was
mistreated while in Ministry of Interior custody (slapped and
threatened with rape as well as the rape of his wife and
daughter). In February, A/S Welch raised the return of
detainees with Ben Ali. Ben Ali provided the somewhat vague
response that they would be accepted in accordance with the
Tunisian Constitution. Your visit represents an opportunity
to confirm that past and future transferees will be treated
in accordance with Tunisia's constitutional guarantees on
human rights and humane treatment, as well as its
international commitments, notably the Convention Against
Torture.

--------------
Counterterrorism/Security Cooperation
--------------


12. (C) Tunisian officials are rightfully concerned about the
terrorism threat posed by violent extremists. As Tunisians
often tell us, they "live in a bad neighborhood". Indeed,
the core members of the terror cell the GOT took down in
January, 2007 had infiltrated from Algeria. But the cell
then recruited from the local population, mushrooming from
four to 40 people in just six weeks. The GOT's success in
taking down the group was welcome, but there is clearly some
support for extremist ideologies among Tunisians. We would
like to help the GOT deal with this, but it would require the

TUNIS 00000962 003 OF 004


GOT to admit there is a domestic problem, and to share
knowledge about its extent. That is not happening: the GOT
maintains that the threat of terrorism in Tunisia is due to
external factors, whether border infiltrations or incitement
broadcast on pan-Arab satellite TV.


13. (S/NF) Tunisian cooperation in the intelligence arena has
been uneven. On the positive side, we have some successful
programs being run through GRPO. We also have good
intelligence sharing on Tunisians who are outside the
country. On the negative side, however, intelligence sharing
on the threat inside Tunisia is thin, although it has
improved somewhat in recent months. The improvements are
probably in response to a commitment made by President Ben
Ali to A/S Welch in February to cooperate on counterterrorism
"without reservation."


14. (C) The GOT places a high value on its historic and
robust military-military relationship with us. In FY 2008,
Tunisia is receiving approximately $8 million in Foreign
Military Financing (FMF),nearly all of which is used for
maintenance of its aging of US-origin equipment, which needs
major upgrades. In addition to FMF, the Mission received
almost $10 million in Section 1206 funding in FY 2008. We
are using the funding to provide the Tunisian military with
night-vision goggles and ground surveillance radar. We also
have a robust program of military exercises and training with
the Tunisians.


15. (C) You will be able to inform the GOT that we can
provide $4.1 million in Peacekeeping Operations (PKO) funds
(originally intended for Mauritania) to meet GOT requests for
unmanned aerial vehicles, night vision equipment for
Tunisia's UH-1H helicopters, and associated training. The
Administration has proposed approximately $2 million in FMF
in FY 2009 for Tunisia. GOT leaders view FMF as a barometer
of the US commitment to Tunisia, and thus have complained
about cuts in FMF levels in recent years. We have told them
that we continue to seek ways to help their military combat
the threat of regional terrorism. We have traded texts on a
Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA),but the GOT has not
replied to our latest draft delivered over a year ago. In a
meeting with Minister of Defense Morjane in May, Secretary
Gates noted the United States would like to complete a SOFA
with Tunisia.

--------------
Economic Ties
--------------


16. (C) Ben Ali and other Tunisian officials frequently call
for greater US economic engagement, by which they mean more
investment. Today, some 70 US companies are operating in
Tunisia, with close to $1 billion in investment since 1994.
Trade between the two countries remains small, with
agricultural commodities the largest US export to Tunisia.
In March, we held a meeting of our Trade and Investment
Framework Agreement (TIFA) council and discussed intellectual
property, services, market access, and investment. One key
to improving US trade and investment is a further opening up
of Tunisia's economy. Notably, Tunisia still does not permit
most types of franchising, although they are working on a new
services law.

--------------
Bilateral Engagement
--------------


17. (C) While we enjoy a long-standing and generally positive
bilateral relationship with Tunisia, difficulties remain.
The GOT is slow to engage, often unresponsive, and
periodically takes counterproductive steps. Most recently,
the GOT rejected all nine American Fulbright Scholars
planning study here this coming year. Strong reclamas
resulted in the GOT accepting four scholars, but the process
was tough. Underlying some GOT actions is a distrust of our
motives, and specifically the Freedom Agenda. GOT leaders
bristle at public criticism. For example, Abdallah convoked
me to express his "disgust" that Tunisia was condemned for
its treatment of journalists in President Bush's May 1
statement on World Press Freedom. But the difficulties are
also the result of the controls imposed by the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs. These controls limit the Embassy's ability
to engage with other agencies, and with universities,
business organizations and even the country's labor union.
While these restrictions affect all Embassies, not just ours,
the effect is to limit the quality and depth of our
relations.


18. (C) In our contacts with Tunisian officials, they

TUNIS 00000962 004 OF 004


emphasize our strong ties of over 200 years. But they rarely
move from the general to the specific. Your visit is an
opportunity to make clear that more is possible. If Tunisia
is prepared to open up and do more on issues of concern to
the United States, e.g., regional challenges and/or political
liberalization, we are prepared to look for ways to deepen
our relationship.

Please visit Embassy Tunis' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/tunis/index.c fm
GODEC