OPPOSITION PARTIES TOSSES THEIR HATS INTO

C O N F I D E N T I A L TUNIS 001124

SIPDIS

NEA/MAG (NARDI/STEWART); DRL (JOHNSTONE/KLARMAN)
LONDON AND PARIS FOR NEA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2018
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL KDEM KPAO TS
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PARTIES TOSSES THEIR HATS INTO
ELECTIONS RING

REF: TUNIS 1092

Classified By: Ambassador Robert F. Godec for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

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Summary
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1. (C) Two Tunisian opposition parties represented in
parliament will present candidates during the 2009
presidential elections, bringing the total number of eligible
candidates to four. Of the candidates, Popular Unity Party
(PUP) head Mohamed Bouchiha and Democratic Unionist Union
(UDU) Secretary General Ahmed Inoubli are both close to the
ruling party. The quasi-independent at-Tajdid's ("Renewal"
Party) First Secretary, Ahmed Ibrahim, has also announced his
candidacy. In conversation with the Ambassador, at-Tajdid
stressed the importance of more steps toward free and fair
elections. End Summary.

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Race to a Forgone Conclusion
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2. (C) In October, both the UDU and at-Tajdid announced
that the heads of their parties, Ahmed Inoubli and Ahmed
Ibrahim respectively, will run for president in 2009. Both
parties are represented in parliament, and the announcements
were expected. UDU is considered to be extremely close to
the ruling Democratic Constitutional Rally (RCD). Indeed,
the day after he announced his candidacy Inoubli met with
President Ben Ali. Unlike UDU, at-Tajdid has attempted to
assert its independence, most notably when its
representatives in Parliament voted against the GOT-proposed
law amending the constitutional provisions on criteria for
presidential candidacy. During an October 6 meeting with the
Ambassador (reftel),Ibrahim stated that his party wanted to
participate in a truly democratic process, even if that meant
that the party would lose. Ibrahim opined that the current
electoral situation is far from free and fair, but said that
if he chose to run he would try to genuinely campaign for his
party's platform.


3. (C) So far, four of the five parties eligible to have
presidential candidates have announced they will participate
in the elections. They are the ruling RCD, UDU, et-Tajdid,
and the Popular Unity Party, which is headed by the
President's brother-in-law, Mohamed Bouchiha. The Secretary
General of the Social Democratic Movement (MDS) is prevented
from running, due to age restrictions. The heads of the
Democratic Forum for Labor and Freedom (FDTL) and the Green
Party for Progress (PVP) are unable to run because they were
appointed to their positions, not elected. The Progressive
Democratic Party (PDP) chose a candidate other than its
elected Secretary General, Maya Jribi. According to the
recently promulgated constitutional amendment, the PDP's
announced candidate, former Secretary General Nejib Chebbi,
cannot legally run for office. On November 8, the 80 members
of the PDP's Central Committee will meet to discuss the 2009
legislative and presidential elections, including the
possible substitution of Jribi's candidacy for Chebbi's.

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Comment
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4. (C/NF) There is no doubt that President Ben Ali will win
the 2009 elections by a landslide. What remains to be seen
is whether the GOT will allow even a slightly more level
playing field for opposition parties by liberalizing media
access and allowing them more freedom of maneuver to campaign
freely. We are not optimistic. Several Embassy contacts,
mostly journalists, say they have been encouraged to tone
down criticism of the RCD and President Ben Ali in the months
leading up to the elections, or face the consequences.
Parliamentary elections may offer another opportunity for
progress, although it is unclear whether the GOT will be any
more amiable to a more democratic process for the legislative
branch. While at-Tajdid's willingness to carry the banner
for free and fair elections is encouraging, it could end up
costing the party parliamentary seats. As for the PDP, a
proposal to make Secretary General Maya Jribi the party's
presidential candidate instead of Nejib Chebbi will
reportedly be on the agenda for the next Central Committee
meeting, but PDP insiders say that the party is unlikely to
switch candidates. End Comment.
GODEC