HIV INFECTION RATES IN LIBYA MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TRIPOLI 000970

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/MAG

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SOCI AMED SMIG LY
SUBJECT: HIV INFECTION RATES IN LIBYA MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED


1. (SBU) Summary: In a recent televised interview, Libya's
leading HIV/AIDS prevention official said the number of Libyans
infected with HIV could be as high as 70,000 individuals,
representing some 1.13 percent of the total population.
Previous estimates had put the number at .6 percent (about
37,000 people) to one percent (about 61,000 people).
Intravenous drug use and risky sexual behavior constitute the
most prevalent disease vectors. Given the difficulty of
obtaining reliable statistics in Libya, the estimate of 70,000
cases of HIV-positive cases is useful, although the presence of
a large migrant population from sub-Saharan Africa and lack of
clarity about the extent of intravenous drug use and risky
sexual behavior suggest that the real figure of HIV-positive
cases could be still higher. End summary.


2. (SBU) On the occasion of World AIDS Day on December 1, Dr.
Muhammad Sammud, Director of Libya's HIV/AIDS prevention program
at the National Center for Infectious Diseases was interviewed
on state-owned television about the country's efforts to track
and prevent the spread of the disease in Libya. The interview
also appeared on satellite channel al-Jazeera. Dr. Sammud said
the government had recently tested some 70,000 people for HIV in
an effort to obtain a valid statistical sample that would help
determine HIV infection rates in Libya. He said there were
10,600 known cases of Libyans infected with HIV in the country;
however, he pointed out that epidemiologists typically multiply
the number of known cases by a factor of six in developing
countries since testing protocols and concerns among infected
individuals about stigmatization often lead to a dramatic
under-representation of the actual number of cases. Using this
approach, he said the number of Libyans who are HIV-positive
could be as high as 70,000. (Note: It was not clear whether the
70,000 individuals tested included members of the Libya's large
migrant community, many of whom are from sub-Saharan Africa.
Some estimates put that population at about two million people.
End note.)


3. (SBU) In a recent meeting sponsored by the EU's HIV/AIDS
Action Plan for Benghazi, an HIV-positive rate of 0.6 percent
among Libyans was given. Using the 2007 CIA World Factbook's
total population figure of 6,173,579, that represents about
37,000 people. But some studies, including ones undertaken by
the Government of Libya (GOL),UNAIDS and the U.K., suggest that
the prevalence of HIV among Libyans engaged in risky behavior
approaches one percent (about 61,000 people out of the total
population). The figure of 70,000 individuals cited by Dr.
Sammud would represent about 1.13 percent, significantly larger
than previous estimates.


4. (SBU) The first cases of HIV infection in Libya were detected
in 1985 among hemophiliacs, who contracted HIV from Factor VIII
imported from Europe. National AIDS Programme (NAP) figures
showed that since 1998 there has been an alarming increase in
the number of HIV-positive cases, a period that coincided with
the infection of some 429 children at the Benghazi Children's
Hospital. (Note: The GOL claimed those infections had been
deliberately perpetrated by a group including five Bulgarian
nurses and a Palestinian doctor, who allegedly injected the
children with the virus. End note.) UNAIDS and NAP estimate
that 90 percent of adult infections in Libya result from
intravenous drug use. Although the NAP has promulgated a
multi-pronged awareness campaign since 2002, HIV/AIDS remains a
heavily stigmatized illness because of its associations with
drug abuse and extra-marital sexual relations. The head
administrator of a leading medical center in Tripoli told us
earlier this year that Libyan health officials were also
increasingly concerned about the large number of Libyan men,
married and unmarried, who frequent prostitutes but do not use
protection, representing another potentially significant vector
for the disease.


5. (SBU) Comment: The recent television interview of the
country's leading authority on HIV/AIDS represented a rare bit
of public candor from Libya's health officials. More typical is
a reluctance to say anything to the public, as in the case of a
recent outbreak of "bluemouth disease" among sheep. The
outbreak occurred on the eve of the Eid al-Adha holiday, which
families typically celebrate by eating mutton. This year,
rumors about the extent of the bluemouth outbreak and the impact
of the disease on humans prompted many Libyans to celebrate Eid

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al-Adha with chicken. Given the difficulty of obtaining
reliable statistics in Libya, the estimate of 70,000 cases of
HIV-positive cases is useful, although the large migrant
population and lack of clarity about the extent of intravenous
drug use and risky sexual behavior suggest that the real figure
of HIV-positive cases could be still higher. End comment.
GODFREY