LEGISLATORS EXPRESS HIGH EXPECTATIONS FOR 6PT, LEE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 000839

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KN JA
SUBJECT: LEGISLATORS EXPRESS HIGH EXPECTATIONS FOR 6PT, LEE
MYUNG-BAK IN ROUNDTABLE WITH A/S HILL


Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer per 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary. LDP elder statesmen Taku Yamasaki and Koichi
Kato discussed DPRK policy with A/S Hill during a roundtable
at the Tokyo American Center on February 21. In addition to
Yamasaki and Kato, the meeting included other leaders of a
Diet league on Korean Peninsula issues. The discussion also
covered the outlook for trilateral cooperation with Korea
under the Lee Myung-bak administration. Regardless of their
political views, participants expressed appreciation for U.S.
efforts to achieve denuclearization, and hoped that the issue
of securing a complete and correct declaration might be
settled as early as March or April. The Diet members said
they were impressed by President-elect Lee and optimistic
that the change in leadership would bring improved bilateral
and trilateral relations. End summary.


2. (SBU) Assistant Secretary for East Asia and Pacific
Affairs Christopher R. Hill held a roundtable with senior
ruling and opposition party lawmakers from a Diet league on
Korean Peninsula affairs at the Tokyo American Center on
February 21. Participants included 12-term ruling Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) members Taku Yamasaki and Koichi Kato,
LDP defense expert Gen Nakatani, LDP members Seishiro Eto and
Ryotaro Tanose, ruling coalition partner Komeito's Vice
President Junji Higashi, opposition Democratic Party of Japan
(DPJ) policy expert Yukio Edano, and DPJ Acting Secretary
General Yoshito Sengoku.

Positive Views on Lee Myung-bak
--------------


3. (C) Briefing Hill on the observations from their most
recent visit to Seoul, Yamasaki and Kato said they were
impressed by President-elect Lee Myung-bak and his
willingness to work with Japan. They had made clear to Lee
their hope that the goals of the Six-Party Talks be achieved
by the end of the year. For Japan, they told Lee, the
ultimate goal is denuclearization. They reported that Lee
agreed on the need to seek denuclearization first, and that
he called on Japan to play a larger role in the Six-Party
process. Kato described Lee's plan for dealing with the DPRK
-- denuclearization first, followed by "liberalization" and
assistance with economic growth aimed at attaining a per
capita income level of USD 3,000 in the DPRK within the next
10 years -- as much more forward-looking and constructive
than that of his predecessor, Roh Moo-hyun. A visit to
Kaesong on this most recent trip had convinced Kato of the
futility of Roh's model for bringing about real change.


4. (C) Where Roh had placed singular emphasis on relations
with the DPRK, Higashi observed, Lee looks at his northern
neighbor in the context of trilateral ties with the United
States and Japan and the Six-Party Talks. Praising this
"paradigm shift," Higashi thought that stronger trilateral
ties would be a positive factor in the Six-Party Talks. Eto
focused on the importance of strong economic relations,
conjecturing that Lee hoped to use economic growth and wider
cooperation with the United States and Japan to entice the
DPRK toward rapprochement.


5. (C) A/S Hill praised Lee's approach to the DPRK as a
"development" project, and looked forward to greater
coordination from Korea in aligning its own approach to the
North with the wider goals of the Six-Party Talks. At the
same time, he expressed caution about expecting too much of
Lee early in his administration. A/S Hill added, however,
that the new political climate in Seoul could also help to
revive the process of trilateral cooperation between the
three countries.

Opportunity, Urgency for Six-Party Talks
--------------


6. (C) Japan would be the largest beneficiary of
denuclearization, Nakatani told A/S Hill, and has already
benefited greatly from U.S. efforts at the Six-Party Talks.

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Given the DPRK's unwillingness so far to furnish a complete
and correct declaration and to respond to questions
concerning uranium enrichment and dealings with Syria,
however, Nakatani remains concerned about future progress.
The confluence of Lee's election in Seoul, the pending exit
of President Bush, and Prime Minister Fukuda's need to
produce positive results in advance of the next general
election in Japan heighten the need for progress in the
Six-Party Talks within the next 18 months, Yamasaki contended.


7. (C) Unilateral Japanese sanctions are set to expire on
April 13, Yamasaki noted, and while he agreed with lifting
some of the sanctions in the hope of greater engagement, he
said he hopes to see the declaration and disablement issues
resolved by the end of March. He and other like-minded
parliamentarians plan to push for the partial lifting of the
sanctions as soon as the DPRK is removed from the U.S. State
Sponsors of Terrorism list. Eto pointed out the importance
of achieving progress in advance of the July G8 Summit,
noting that Japan, as host, would like the leaders to issue
some sort of statement regarding the status of the Six-Party
Talks. Higashi noted that his concerns over the incomplete
declaration were fueled, in part, by the lack of information
available in Japan on the DPRK's Syria connection.


8. (C) A/S Hill described the current problems in reaching
the end of Phase II of the Six-Party process as not
insurmountable. He attributed the DPRK's reluctance to
submit a complete and correct declaration to a culture of
secrecy. A viable declaration would require a level of
transparency the North Korean regime is not used to. He went
on to caution that more difficult challenges will come in the
next phase, when talk turns to such issues as normalization,
development of a new Northeast Asia Peace and Security
Mechanism, and exploring the possibility of DPRK access to
international financial institutions, among other contentious
subjects.

Abductions Still Key, but Mood is Changing
--------------


9. (C) Japanese public opinion on the DPRK and the abductions
issue has changed subtly in recent years, Kato noted. Until
two years ago, Japanese were concerned very little with
denuclearization. In recent months, however, abductions may
have become slightly less important in people's minds
relative to the nuclear threat. He advised attaching equal
importance to both. Kato, too, said he would continue to be
a forceful advocate for engagement. Describing past run-ins
with Japanese extremists on the issue, Kato noted that the
volume of threat mail he received from those taking a hard
line on the DPRK had declined recently, a reflection of the
changing mood. He blamed the Japanese media for
self-censoring on the debate over DPRK issues. Eto said he
placed high expectation on A/S Hill and on President-elect
Lee to resolve the abductions issue.


10. (C) The United States appreciates Prime Minister Fukuda's
efforts to deal with abductions in the broader context, A/S
Hill said, adding that we must remain respectful of Japanese
sentiments and concerns about the issue. The DPRK can and
should do more to disclose the fate of the abductees, he
added. Stressing the need to proceed in a comprehensive
manner, however, A/S Hill said he hopes the Japanese media
would not focus on abductions to the detriment of progress on
denuclearization. He reiterated for the Diet members that he
continues to emphasize to the DPRK the importance of making
greater efforts to improve relations with Japan.


12. (U) This message has been cleared by A/S Hill.
SCHIEFFER