Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08TOKYO416
2008-02-16 08:02:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

CLIMATE CHANGE: JAPAN REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF U.S.

Tags:  SENV ENRG KGHG JA 
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INFO RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
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RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 000416 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR IO, G, EAP/J, EEB/ESC, AND
OES/EGC -- HWATSON, BDEROSA-JOYNT, AND
DNELSON
WHITE HOUSE FOR CEQ
DOE FOR S-3

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2018
TAGS: SENV ENRG KGHG JA
SUBJECT: CLIMATE CHANGE: JAPAN REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF U.S.
APPROACHES

TOKYO 00000416 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: EMIN Robert F. Cekuta for reasons 1.4 b, d.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 000416

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR IO, G, EAP/J, EEB/ESC, AND
OES/EGC -- HWATSON, BDEROSA-JOYNT, AND
DNELSON
WHITE HOUSE FOR CEQ
DOE FOR S-3

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2018
TAGS: SENV ENRG KGHG JA
SUBJECT: CLIMATE CHANGE: JAPAN REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF U.S.
APPROACHES

TOKYO 00000416 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: EMIN Robert F. Cekuta for reasons 1.4 b, d.


1. (C) Summary: U.S. ideas on a future climate framework and
our plan for negotiations in 2008 enjoy broad support within
the Japanese government, GOJ officials told U.S. Senior
Climate Negotiator Harlan Watson the week of February 11-15.
Successfully bringing China into an agreement is still seen
as a major obstacle, however, by all the senior officials Dr.
Watson met from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA),
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI),and Ministry
of Environment (MOE). The momentum in the GOJ is to continue
supporting U.S. priorities and the U.S.-led Major Economies
Process (MEP) all the way through the various G8-linked
meetings. However, some in the GOJ are still skeptical, and
we will need to continue engaging GOJ counterparts. End
summary.

MOFA: Supports U.S. Approach
--------------


2. (C) At dinner with Dr. Watson on February 11, MOFA Global
Affairs Director-General Koji Tsuruoka spoke emphatically
about the need to bring emerging economies into a post-2012
climate framework. Tsuruoka pointed out that after World War
II, Japan was granting overseas development assistance within
eleven years, but fifty years later the same country that
received the first yen loan in 1956 (India) is still Japan's
number one recipient of ODA. If emerging countries will not
consider themselves developed enough to accept climate
commitments now, he asked, when will they ever? "The world
has changed," he said, and must get past the
developed-vs.-developing paradigm embodied by the Kyoto
Protocol's Annex I/Annex II division. Korea joined the OECD
twelve years ago but still argues it should not be Annex I
(i.e., adopt commitments). "It's quite amazing," Tsuruoka
complained.


3. (C) Nevertheless, it will be challenging to make this case
to the public in 2008, Tsuruoka admitted. In 2007, President
Bush's announcement of the Major Economies Process brought
the U.S. back into international negotiations, Tsuruoka said,

and forced Europe to engage the U.S. Japan is optimistic
that the U.S. would be "flexible" in climate talks as long as
the U.S. economy continued to grow. But questions about this
willingness have arisen here as the subprime crisis has
developed.

Opposition Diet Member's View of Japanese Public Sentiment
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Tetsuro Fukuyama, DPJ Diet member who also attended
the dinner, shared his view of where Japan's public stands on
climate. (Note: Fukuyama is Deputy Chair of the Policy
Research Committee in the House of Councilors and is known
for advocacy on climate issues. He vocally opposed the U.S.
decision not to ratify Kyoto. End note.) Fukuyama said the
Japanese public feel "they are not contributing to the world"
right now because Japan's greenhouse gas emissions are
growing. He said while Japanese industry made great strides
in energy efficiency between 1975 and 1990, further gains
have been less impressive because the economic downturn of
the 1990s precluded further investment in energy efficiency
R&D. So as other developed countries have caught up to Japan
in efficiency, Japan's public is willing to consider more
drastic climate measures like cap-and-trade schemes or a
carbon tax. He said the public does not understand the
complexities of the issue, but politicians have to pay
attention to how they feel when a major incident comes along
such as the flooding following Hurricane Katrina.


TOKYO 00000416 002.2 OF 003


METI: Great, But How Do We Bring China on Board?
-------------- ---


5. (C) The METI Vice Minister Masakazu Toyoda praised the
sectoral approach the U.S. has promoted so well in the
Asia-Pacific Partnership, but wondered in his Feb. 13 meeting
with Dr. Watson how we could lure China away from
cap-and-trade. After all, he said, while Japanese business
complains about the costs of buying credits under the Kyoto
Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM),China and the
rest of the G77 are "turning it (the CDM) into business" and
finding it very profitable. Dr. Watson explained that we
have cause for optimism where China is concerned: it has
already embraced the sectoral approach in its own domestic
emissions reduction plan and signed on -- albeit reluctantly
-- to an endorsement of the approach at the APEC meeting in
Sydney.


6. (C) Toyoda also wondered aloud how governments will
implement the sectoral approach. Cap-and-trade is supposed
to be an inherently free market idea, he said, but the EU's
auction system for carbon permits excuses the most
energy-inefficient sectors with "very loose caps." This
situation is "very artificial government intervention,"
Toyoda said, and "I am very much scared by this." Dr. Watson
agreed, emphasizing that an economy-wide cap-and-trade system
makes it impossible to get the cleanest technology into the
sectors it needs to be in, because it creates an incentive to
pursue the cheapest emissions reductions possible.

MOE: Also Skeptical on China
--------------


7. (C) Dr. Watson met Feb. 13 with MOE Vice Minister Toshiro
Kojima who, more skeptically, questioned how U.S. efforts
could bring in China. China is "hard" to convince to take on
commitments, Kojima said. He recalled a speech Australian PM
Rudd gave in Bali, calling (Kojima claimed) for China to take
on a "legal, binding target" post-2012. Will the U.S.
negotiate "next year" to encourage China to take on targets,
he asked? Dr. Watson explained that we are trying to get a
positive statement from all the Major Economies Process
leaders in 2008, ideally before the G8 Summit this July.
Kojima said vaguely that he still wanted to know more about
the "character" of the MEP and remarked "we (MOE) are now
reviewing" the measures (i.e., cap-and-trade bills) being put
forth by members of Congress.

G8 Meetings Won't Conflict with Major Economies
-------------- --


8. (C) Kojima sought to allay U.S. worries that the MEP could
be undermined by the G8-linked Gleneagles Dialogue climate
change meeting March 14-16 in Chiba and the G8 Environmental
Ministerial May 24-26 in Kobe. The GOJ climate negotiator
Kunihiko Shimada, also at the meeting, told Dr. Watson he
understood U.S. concerns, namely that assembling the G20
major emitters in Chiba might duplicate MEP discussions and
that the Environment Ministerial's heavy emphasis on climate
change could produce an outcome hard to coordinate with the
MEP. Shimada said the Gleneagles meeting simply has to
address the three pillars of that ongoing dialogue
(financing, technology, and a post-2012 agreement) in some
way. The Ministerial will probably not produce a negotiated
statement because that would preempt the June UNFCCC meeting
in Bonn. Discussion papers are still being drafted and will
be out in a month or so. Tsuruoka confirmed Japan expects to
host a MEP side session in Chiba immediately before the
Gleneagles meeting and a possible leaders' meeting around the
Summit itself.

TOKYO 00000416 003.2 OF 003




9. (C) Comment -- Questions arose in the meetings about
possible changes in the U.S. views over the longer term.
Kojima openly expressed interest in Congressional proposals
for climate measures the USG does not support and Special
Advisor to the Cabinet on Climate Change Nishimura said
outright that he supports internationally-linked
cap-and-trade schemes at a Tokyo symposium on climate change
February 12. Still, the GOJ supports U.S. positions on
climate. The MOE, for example, has taken our concerns on
board about the upcoming climate-related meetings it is
organizing. It will be important, however, to remain engaged
with Japanese climate negotiators and to be ready with a firm
statement of our redlines, if necessary, to keep the momentum
we have generated on track. End comment.


10. (U) Dr. Watson cleared this message before his departure.
SCHIEFFER