JAPAN GETS READY FOR POZNAN -- WORKING TO KEEP

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2018
TAGS: SENV KGHG PREL ENRG KSCA JA
SUBJECT: JAPAN GETS READY FOR POZNAN -- WORKING TO KEEP
EXPECTATIONS REALISTIC FOR COP 14

REF: TOKYO 2794

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Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer for reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) SUMMARY: Top Japanese bureaucrats dealing with
environment and energy policy report unrealistic expectations
among EU and other governments in the run-up to COP 14 in
Poznan December 1-12. These officials all report trying to
convince European Commission and EU member governments not to
try to ram through agreements on targets or other points the
U.S. has traditionally opposed. They note a continued
Japanese stance that a post-Kyoto regime to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions needs to include China and India as well as the
U.S., and that China, India, and the other emerging market
economies need to commit to steps to limit greenhouse gas
emissions, although their base points, targets, and expected
levels of cuts may be different than for developed countries.
For its own part, Japan continues to advocate its sectoral
approach and to argue for a different base year than 1990,
e.g., 2000 or, more commonly mentioned, 2005. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Emboffs held meetings November 4-10 with key Japanese
officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA);
Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI); and Ministry
of Environment (MOE); as well as a Special Adviser to the
Cabinet to discuss the Japanese position going into the
Poznan COP 14.

Charges Some Looking to Take Advantage of U.S. Transition
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Senior officials at METI and MOFA noted they have
told EU officials it would be a mistake to use the transition
in the U.S. to slam positions through the Poznan COP 14, e.g.
on targets, about which the U.S. has traditionally had
concerns or reservations. Expections in some capitals for
Poznan are too lofty, Japanese officials report. METI
Director General (DG) for Natural Resources and Energy Policy
Kazuhiko Hombu and Global Environmental Affairs DG Jun Arima
told Econoffs unrealistic expectations going into Poznan
abound, as exemplified by the European Union's push for 25-40
percent emission reductions from 1990 levels by 2020, the
possible reliance on offsets to meet such goals, and
developing countries'ideas about the scope and type of
technology transfer to address climate change.


4. (C) MOFA Global Issues DG Shinsuke Sugiyama also noted
these concerns in a separate meeting and said Japan is
committed to working with all parties to make sure the Poznan
meeting is productive without alienating the U.S. (for
example by adopting unrealistic emissions reduction goals or
unacceptable technology transfer principles). Commenting on
the time required to confirm U.S. appointees and the
uncertain Japanese political situation, Sugiyama hypothesized
that even COP 15 in Copenhagen may come and go before a truly
global consensus can be formed. Similarly, Ambassador
Mutsuyoshi Nishimura, Special Adviser to the Cabinet for
international climate change policy, stated the window of
opportunity for real progress at COP 15 in Copenhagen may
already have closed. It may take another six months after
Copenhagen before a post-2012 regime for cutting greenhouse
gases can be achieved. He also thought full participation by
China, India and other emerging market countries may not
occur until 2020, even though China may come forward with

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some tangible actions in the current round of talks. Japan,
Nishimura suggested, would probably need to compromise and
accept less than full participation by China in a post-2012
climate change regime.

Realism Required, Flexibility Is Key
--------------


5. (C) Environment Ministry officials agreed EU and other
governments need to adopt a more realistic approach for
Poznan and also stressed flexibility would be the key to
achieving a breakthrough. Environment Ministry Global
Environment DG Tatsushi Terada and Councillor for Global
Environment Masaru Moriya stressed that the goals of a
post-Kyoto framework need to be ambitious, but the methods to
achieve them must be practical. METI DG Hombu and MOFA DG
Sugiyama agreed the post-2012 framework must be realistic and
pragmatic. Sugiyama and Amb. Nishimura emphasized their
efforts to scale back EU demands and temper unrealistic
expectations for the Poznan and Copenhagen COP meetings.
Nishimura also argued much of the world's public opinion
remains opposed to the U.S. on climate change.


6. (C) The MOE officials said Japan will likely support
using multiple baseline years to calculate emissions targets
and that flexibility on base years may help to involve not
only the U.S. but also China, India, and other emerging
market and developing countries. The EU is unlikely, in the
MOE's view, to abandon the 1990 baseline. Moriya asked
whether the U.S. would require the exact same commitments
from China and India as from the United States in order to
agree to a post-Kyoto framework.

Japan's Sectoral Approach
--------------


7. (C) Environment Ministry officials provided an English
translation of Japan's submission to COP 14. (Copy faxed to
EAP/J.) It includes a proposal to differentiate among
developing countries based on their capacity to take action
to address climate change (ref). Moriya asserted Japan's
proposed sectoral approach would help developing countries
realize the necessary transfer of environmental technologies.
METI DG Hombu said Japan feels the comparability of
reduction targets -- as is enabled when a sectoral approach
is used -- is fundamental to a new framework.

GOJ "Asks" and Expectations
--------------


8. (C) Consistent with Japan's longstanding position that
the U.S., India, and China must be included in the post-Kyoto
arrangement, Amb. Nishimura and MOFA DG Sugiyama each said
Japan will not accept an agreement that does not have U.S.
and Chinese support. Japan, therefore, is committed to
working with all the players to achieve consensus.


9. (C) METI DG Hombu said Japan expects commitment at COP 14
that the U.S. will be involved in setting the post-Kyoto
framework. He also said Japan prefers to set greenhouse gas
intensity targets, rather than a single gross emission
target, and is interested in hearing the new administration's
thoughts as well on this point.


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10. (C) MOE DG Terada and Moriya said Japan has encountered
strong resistance to its UNFCCC submission (ref) from
developing countries, and seeks U.S. support for its ideas.

SCHIEFFER