LDP SENSES OPPORTUNITY: YOSANO MAY CHALLENGE ASO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 002443

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2018
TAGS: PGOV ECON JA
SUBJECT: LDP SENSES OPPORTUNITY: YOSANO MAY CHALLENGE ASO

REF: TOKYO 2416

Classified By: CDA James P. Zumwalt, reasons 1.4(b),(d).


1. (C) Summary. In the aftermath of Prime Minister Fukuda's
surprise resignation, there is cautious optimism in the LDP
that their political fortunes may be improving. In contrast,
there are worries in the DPJ that the LDP will use the
September 22 LDP presidential election to cast the DPJ's
"one-man show" under Ozawa in an unfavorable light, by
highlighting the ruling party's diversity of views and
abundance of leadership talent. The LDP presidential race
will feature multiple candidates and an all-out publicity
campaign. The DPJ is struggling to find a way to stay on the
front pages when its own leadership election has already been
decided and the Diet is out of session. Two public opinion
polls published on September 4 demonstrate Taro Aso's popular
appeal, as well as a jump in support for the LDP at the
expense of the DPJ. However, an anti-Aso movement is
underway within the LDP. Kaoru Yosano, a widely respected
senior politician and economic expert, has emerged as a
credible challenger to Aso, and others are expected to join
the LDP race soon. The party election at this point remains
anybody's game. End Summary.


2. (C) "The building is full of energy," a Liberal Democratic
Party (LDP) insider with over twenty years of service at
party headquarters told the Embassy on September 4, regarding
the mood in her office just days after Prime Minister Yasuo
Fukuda's sudden announcement that he plans to step down.
Fukuda's resignation is "a ray of sunshine in the midst of a
torrential downpour" for the LDP, she added, and party
leaders know that they must make the most of this opportunity
to draw public and media attention away from the opposition
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) by playing up the LDP
presidential race scheduled for September 22. An unnamed DPJ
executive quoted in the press expressed concern that the DPJ
could be "submerged" by all the attention lavished on the LDP
if it does not find a way to get its own message out.
Numerous DPJ contacts have indicated that they are far from
optimistic about the party's chances in the next election,
the timing of which remains uncertain.


3. (C) The LDP's goal now is to contrast "democracy in
action," in the shape of the party presidential election,
with Ichiro Ozawa's uncontested "re-election" as DPJ leader,
which is expected to occur on September 8. Referring to the
possibility that there may be a number of LDP candidates
contesting the election, "It is better to have more people in
the pilothouse than to let the ship sink," an LDP contact
asserted. She stressed that the party's factions, while not
the kingmakers they have been in the past, will work
cooperatively to ensure that multiple candidates are each
able to amass the minimum number of twenty supporters
required to run.


4. (C) Several Embassy contacts have confirmed reports that
LDP Diet members will be "voting their conscience." Former
Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, who still wields considerable
influence within the LDP, has encouraged all interested
candidates to enter the race, even long-shots, such as Ichita
Yamamoto, Taro Kono, and Masazumi Gotoda. Former Defense
Minister Yuriko Koike, and former LDP policy chief Nobuteru
Ishihara have also gone public with their interest in
running. Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano
has already announced and filed his candidacy. Regardless of
who runs in the end, the LDP election continues to be about
economic and fiscal policy, as reflected by the buzzwords
that the press have associated with the major candidates,
including "pump-priming" for Aso, "fiscal discipline" for
Yosano, and "structural reform" for Koike. As a high-ranking
LDP member told the Charge recently, however, none of the
candidates is likely to get elected without compromising on
his or her policy goals.


5. (C) Press accounts, polling and some Embassy and
constituent post LDP contacts consider LDP Secretary General

TOKYO 00002443 002 OF 002


Taro Aso to be a strong candidate based on his broad
government experience and popular appeal. In a Kyodo public
opinion poll conducted September 2-3, over 35 percent of
respondents selected Aso from a group of ten LDP politicians
as the most "appropriate" choice for Prime Minister. Of the
most likely current candidates, Koike ranked third, at 9.2
percent, with Ishihara at 7.1 percent. In terms of overall
public support for the two parties, over 38 percent of the
poll's respondents said they would vote LDP in the next
general election, compared to fewer than 35 percent for the
DPJ. Respondents favored an LDP-led coalition over a DPJ-led
coalition 43.3 percent to 41.7 percent, a 15 percent
turnaround since August. In an Asahi survey that asked whom
respondents would like to see become Prime Minister, without
regard to party and without providing a multiple-choice list
of names, Aso still came out first, at 30 percent, with Ozawa
at only 8 percent and Koike barely registering 3 percent.
Support for the LDP outpaced support for the DPJ in the Asahi
poll as well, by 29 percent to 21 percent, despite wide
dissatisfaction with the party over Fukuda's resignation.


6. (C) Aso is believed to enjoy a strong lead in the LDP
prefectural chapters, which will be granted three votes each
to apportion as they please, despite recent calls from mostly
younger LDP lawmakers to include additional votes for local
rank-and-file members. Aso's appeal, particularly in areas
where the economy is struggling, is based on his advocacy for
economic revitalization through public spending, including
his flexibility in allocating public works funding based on
local conditions, according to reporting from constituent
posts. At the same time, Aso has many detractors within the
party, and concerns remain about possible money and other
scandals that have touched him in the past. An anti-Aso
campaign is underway, and a number of party heavyweights are
seeking to bolster the candidacies of Yosano and Koike. At
this point, as in September 2007, Aso's early lead could
evaporate. The LDP election remains anybody's game.


7. (C) Regarding possible general election timing, the
current thinking within the LDP is to convene the fall Diet
session right after the LDP election, pass the supplementary
budget -- which includes a healthy dose of pork-barrel
spending, contrary to previous government pledges to achieve
primary balance fiscal consolidation targets by 2011 -- and
then dissolve the Lower House immediately for an early
November general election. This scenario not only allows the
LDP to capitalize on the momentum from its leadership
election, but also meets the requirement of junior coalition
partner Komeito to avoid embarrassing Diet testimony by party
and Soka Gakkai critics by keeping the fall session short.
Some Embassy contacts have remarked, however, that if Yosano
wins on September 22, dissolution could be delayed
significantly, possibly leaving more time for the fall
session.
ZUMWALT