"FUKUDA VISION" ON CLIMATE CHANGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 001585

SIPDIS

STATE FOR G, OES/EGC
NSC FOR PAUL BROWN AND JONATHAN SHRIER
CEQ FOR LANDON VAN DYKE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2018
TAGS: SENV KGHG ENRG JA
SUBJECT: "FUKUDA VISION" ON CLIMATE CHANGE

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Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer for reasons 1.4 b, d.


1. (C) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Fukuda's speech outlining the
"Fukuda Vision" for international climate change negotiations
and domestic climate policies contained few surprises. The
PM confirmed Japan's long-term goal to reduce its emissions
60-80% by 2050, with the main new proposal being a trial
domestic emissions trading scheme to be implemented this
fall. The fact that the speech was apparently prepared
entirely within the Cabinet Office, excluding the ministries,
suggests an increasing desire for Fukuda to be seen as a
"leader" on climate change. Nevertheless the speech did push
back against EU views on emissions trading and targets. End
summary.

The Speech: No Major Surprises
--------------


2. (U) Prime Minister Fukuda unveiled his "Fukuda Vision" on
an international climate change agreement and domestic
Japanese climate measures in a speech devoted exclusively to
the subject at the Japan National Press Club at 6:00 pm
Monday, June 9. As expected, he announced a long-term
domestic goal of cutting Japan's emissions 60-80% from
current levels by 2050, saying Japan could achieve this goal
with the introduction of innovative technologies. He also
said global emissions must drop 50% by 2050, which would be a
goal "shared between the G8 and major emitting countries,"
and must peak in the next 10-20 years. However, developed
countries would have to make a larger contribution.


3. (U) As had also been hinted in the press, the PM did not
outline a mid-term domestic goal. He did say Japan has the
potential to reduce its emissions 14% from current levels by
2020 through sector-specific cuts and cleaner technology. He
also made a detailed argument for 2005 being the base year
against which future emissions reductions should be measured,
saying the world situation has changed since 1990 and Japan
was already very energy-efficient at that time. (Note:
Japan's economy, still one of the world's most
energy-efficient, made most of its gains in efficiency prior
to 1990. Money for energy efficiency R&D dried up during the
prolonged economic downturn of the 1990s. End note.)


4. (U) The PM then outlined a "comprehensive policy" to
achieve a low-carbon society with four pillars:

First: diffusion of existing technology internationally,
including through the U.S.-sponsored Clean Technology Fund
and Japan's Cool Earth Partnership, and increased investment
into innovative clean technologies.

Second: national measures to foster a low-carbon society in
Japan such as a trial domestic emissions trading scheme to
begin this fall, a "greening of the tax system," and an
effort to reclaim the world's number one position in solar
power generation from Germany by increasing solar energy
generation to ten times current levels by 2020 and forty
times by 2030.

Third: regional roles for Japanese agriculture in producing
forests and other biomass, and cities to be designated as
models of energy efficiency.

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Fourth: changes in individuals' lifestyles, such as the
possible introduction of daylight saving time. The PM also
designated July 7 as a "Cool Earth Day" for the public to
participate in low-carbon activities. (Note: This year July
7, a Monday, will be the first day of the G-8 Summit in
Hokkaido.)

Press Reaction
--------------


5. (SBU) All major news outlets covered the speech and ran
summaries. Newspaper editorials generally welcomed the
speech, but some criticized the lack of a mid-term goal,
pointing out that even a potential 14% reduction from current
levels would only bring Japan 4% below 1990 levels. (Note:
Japan's Kyoto target is to reduce emissions 6% below 1990
levels by 2012. While the PM also confirmed in the speech
that Japan would meet its Kyoto target, the country is
currently 6.5% above 1990 levels and will only be able to
meet its target by purchasing carbon credits. End note.) At
least one editorial compared the PM's plan unfavorably to the
climate bill put forward by the opposition Democratic Party
of Japan (DPJ),which would cut emissions 25% from 1990
levels by 2020 and over 60% by 2050.

Ministries out of the Loop
--------------


6. (C) While many of the speech's highlights had been leaked
in advance, the GOJ bureaucracy was out of the loop on its
production. In testimony before the Diet's Environmental
Committee on June 10, MOE Director General for Global
Environment Hideki Minamikawa said he had not seen a draft of
the speech until late afternoon on June 9. A Ministry of
Foreign Affairs (MOFA) contact also told Post on June 9 he
had not seen the text. On June 10 a senior Ministry of
Environment (MOE) official meeting incoming EAP/J Director
Russel made lengthy supportive remarks about MOE's support
for the U.S. Major Economies Meeting process, and about MOE's
relationship with the Environmental Protection Agency, but
could not offer any reaction to the speech's content even
though he was about to testify to the Diet -- except to say
that he expected to be grilled about it since the DPJ is
pushing a competing bill. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and
Industry (METI) was unable to offer any reaction to the
speech's content at all. One newspaper also reported that
officials at all three ministries were complaining about
being left out of the speech's production, and speculated
that this was deliberate on the part of the Cabinet Office so
as to give the impression that the PM is changing the
government's course on climate change himself.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) By keeping the bureaucracy out of the loop when
writing the speech, it would appear Fukuda wants to be seen
as taking personal leadership on climate change. However, it
is notable the PM did not respond to the EU's
attention-grabbing announcements of mid-term goals with one
of his own. Fukuda's insistence in the speech that "we have
no time to play political games with a mid-term target" shows

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that Japan has, at least for now, recognized that coming out
with unreachable goals for the near term would damage
negotiations on a post-Kyoto climate treaty. While trying to
maintain credibility for the GOJ, Fukuda has chosen to
distance Japan from the EU on this key point. End comment.
SCHIEFFER