SCENESETTER FOR G-8 KOBE ENVIRONMENT MINISTERS'

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TOKYO 001383

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

EPA FOR ADMINISTRATOR STEVEN JOHNSON
NSC FOR PAUL BROWN AND KURT TONG
CEQ FOR LANDON VAN DYKE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2018
TAGS: SENV KGHG PREL OECD JA
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR G-8 KOBE ENVIRONMENT MINISTERS'
MEETING MAY 24-26

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Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The agenda for the Kobe G-8
Environment Ministerial includes biodiversity and the
3Rs - reduce, reuse, recycle, but much of the public
focus will be on climate change and the steps Japan and
other economies will take. This focus seems likely to
remain despite the GOJ's strong support for the Major
Economies Process and agreement that emerging market
economies, such as China and India, need to act with the
industrialized countries if we are to meet successfully
the global challenge. Japan has been one of the United
States' best allies in post-Kyoto Protocol climate
change negotiations, but desire for a domestic political
deliverable, plus suspicions China and India might not
be ready to commit to MEP goals by July's G-8 Summit,
could lead the Fukuda government to support EU-style
targets for greenhouse gas emissions. The pro-Kyoto
Ministry of Environment's (MOE) lead role in the
ministerial could further affect Japan's decision-
making. It will be important to note, especially with
the press and in any outreach sessions with
stakeholders, biodiversity and the other issues on the
Environment Ministers' agenda as well as to reiterate
U.S. positions on climate change and energy security,
positions with which many in Japan continue to agree.
END SUMMARY.

Japan's Political Backdrop to Kobe
--------------


2. (C) Prime Minister Fukuda's approval ratings
continue to drop, and climate change -- depicted here as
a centerpiece issue for July's G-8 Summit as well as for
the Major Economies Meeting July 9 -- is an area where
the government sees some hope of a publicly demonstrable
accomplishment. With rumors of elections or cabinet
change later in the year, observers suggest the Fukuda
government seeks to leverage progress on climate to
boost its political fortunes.


3. (C) So while Japan has strongly supported the U.S.
vision on a post-Kyoto agreement in general and the
Major Economies Process in particular, over the past
months there have been signs of shifts in position. In
April, Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry
(METI),long a strong opponent of cap-and-trade or
mandatory greenhouse gas targets, announced it was
undertaking study of a possible mandatory domestic cap-
and-trade system in Japan. (Unlike MOE, METI has long
opposed Kyoto-style caps, in line with the views of the
Japanese industries whose interests METI represents.)
The sense, as one senior GOJ official in another
ministry put it, is that when Japanese institutions
undertake such a study, the likelihood is strong that
the measures under study will be implemented. One of
the factors now in play is developing a consensus with
Japan's energy, steel, and auto companies.


4. (C) Moreover, in recent weeks Chief Cabinet
Secretary Machimura said the Prime Minister will

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announce, before the G-8, a domestic goal for reducing
Japanese greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Government
officials report off the record that the Environment,
METI, and Foreign Ministers are talking with Fukuda
about the PM announcing a goal to cut domestic emissions
by perhaps 60-80% by 2050 (using 2000 as a base year).
Because PM Fukuda has moved overall responsibility for
climate from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) to
his office in the past six months, and largely left the
issue to a number of new negotiators who are also pro-
Kyoto, there is momentum in the government for this sort
of announcement.

Ministerial Arrangements
--------------


5. (C) Environment Minister Ichiro Kamoshita will
chair all sessions at the Ministers' Meeting. Kamoshita
has been among those personally calling for mandatory
climate measures and more ambitious targets in the press
and has done so since the UN Climate Summit in Bali last
December. Overall he is an engaged, diplomatic
interlocutor, though he has occasionally gone off-
message. When Environment Minister Kamoshita criticized
President Bush's April announcements on climate change
as insufficient, for example, the Chief Cabinet
Secretary and the PM issued statements that Kamoshita's
statements were not in line with GOJ policy. Hyogo
Prefectural Governor Toshizo Ido, who hosts a dinner
with you and other ministers on Sunday, May 25, is also
outspoken on environment, publicly supports the Kyoto
Protocol, and has criticized the U.S. for not ratifying
it.


6. (C) In addition to the G-8 Ministers,
representatives from Antigua and Barbuda, Australia,
Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Republic of Korea,
Slovenia (as EU president) and South Africa will
participate. The UNEP, GEF, OECD, UNFCCC, World Bank,
IUCN (International Union for the Conversation of
Nature) and Basel Convention will be present as well.
Among the stakeholders the GOJ has invited are Keidanren
(the Japanese industrial federation),Keizai Doyukai
(federation of Japanese business executives),JCCI
(Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry),World Economic
Forum, World Business Council on Sustainable
Development, Rengo (Japan's federation of labor
industries) and the International Trade Union
Confederation (ITUC). These last two organizations
raised the question of environmentally-friendly jobs at
the May 11-13 Labor Ministerial in Niigata.


7. (C) We do not foresee surprises at this point on
3Rs or biodiversity, the other issues to be taken up in
Kobe. The Environment Ministry has confirmed there will
be only three written outputs from the meeting: a
Chair's Summary, a 3Rs Action Plan, and a Biodiversity
Call to Action. Japan will draft the text of the
Chair's Summary and has indicated it will not negotiate
the details of the document, but the 3Rs and
biodiversity documents will be negotiated, and EPA and

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the State Department are finalizing the wording on these
with Japan and the other G-8 countries. On 3Rs, we have
urged Japan to include mention of our proposal in the
WTO Doha Round on reducing barriers to trade in
environmental goods and technologies, which they have so
far failed to do. (Former Prime Minister Mori, as
Japan's representative to the UN High Level Meeting on
Climate in September, also called for countries to
remove tariffs on products and technologies that cut
energy use or greenhouse gas emissions.) Japan has
called for countries to set "targets" on 3Rs but we have
resisted, referring to the milder 3Rs commitments
countries made at the 2006 G-8 Summit in St. Petersburg.
On biodiversity, Japan has agreed with us in supporting
actions towards the UNEP 2010 Biodiversity Target, but
has also called for negotiating post-2010 targets, which
we oppose.


8. (C) Japan also promised us there will be no other
last-minute initiatives before the ministerial, such as
its last-minute proposal on a "Low-Carbon Society"
consortium, which has been rejected. The Environment
Ministry suggested, however, that if topics present
themselves during discussions in Kobe, the GOJ might
propose transforming them quickly into outputs.


9. (C) In general, the U.S. and Japan work together
well in international fora on environmental issues. The
GOJ approaches most environment issues from a resource
management, rather than a conservation perspective,
which can cause some friction on issues such as CITES.


10. (C) Whaling is the most notable exception to the
generally good relationship on environment issues.
Japan has long pursued "research whaling" in which GOJ-
subsidized research vessels study, but in fact kill,
minke and other whales and process them. The whale meat
is provided to schools and other institutions as well as
stores and restaurants. Japan has sought to minimize
pressure in the International Whaling Commission through
various means, including bringing in new developing
country members that will go along with GOJ positions.
Whaling has been an especially sensitive issue, however,
between Japan and Australia and New Zealand. The USG
has frequent bilateral contact with Japan on whaling,
and has tried to keep the issue confined to the
International Whaling Commission, but recent violent
protests of Japanese research whaling in seas near
Antarctica drew sharp criticism from the Japanese press
and politicians. That an NGO with high-profile
involvement in the issue, the Sea Shepherd Conservation
Society, has its headquarters in the U.S. is frequently
reported in Japan's press and has been raised with the
USG, here and in Washington, by Japanese officials, but
so far has not complicated our relationship. The U.S.
has supported several IWC resolutions condemning violent
protests. There is always the possibility of a protest
by the anti-whaling NGO the Sea Shepherd or a similar
group.

What Japan Wants from Kobe

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--------------


11. (C) Japan wants an outcome that sounds as
ambitious as possible and gives the impression that the
country is taking leadership on climate. For some time
now, Japan has been frustrated over getting little
credit for action, particularly in comparison with the
EU, even though Japan has one of the world's most
energy-efficient economies. Since the Kyoto Protocol
measures emissions reductions against 1990 -- right
after Japan's economy soured and investment into energy
efficiency R&D dried up -- Japan now has Kyoto targets
it is unable to meet. Japan is supposed to reduce its
emissions to 6% below 1990 levels by 2012, but they are
currently 8% above 1990 levels and rising.


12. (C) Japan's chief strategy to date has been to
make proposals to draw "all major emitting countries" --
i.e., both the U.S. and emerging economies such as China
and India -- into a future framework, to address one of
Kyoto's shortcomings. They have also stressed the
utility of the sectoral approach, including with Chinese
President Hu Jintao during his May visit to Japan.


13. (C) Our challenge in Kobe is therefore to keep
focus on the broader environmental agenda and the role
the G-8 can play in worldwide efforts to address climate
change. Although the Foreign Ministry, as organizer for
the Lake Toya G-8 Summit, understands the parameters of
the G-8 process and the idea ministers should not be
seen issuing instructions to or circumscribing the
abilities of leaders to make decisions, the MOE may not
be so circumspect. Nor may it be active in countering
such misperceptions in the press, should they develop.
SCHIEFFER