DEMOCRATIC PARTY LOOKING (CAUTIOUSLY) TOWARDS LIFE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000827

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/11/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV AL
SUBJECT: DEMOCRATIC PARTY LOOKING (CAUTIOUSLY) TOWARDS LIFE
AFTER BERISHA

REF: TIRANA 812

Classified By: Ambassador John L. Withers, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Seven months before the 2009 parliamentary
elections, Prime Minister Sali Berisha maintains a tight grip
on his Democratic Party (DP). With nearly complete control
over who gets on the party lists for the upcoming elections
and no credible rivals within the party, Berisha is likely to
remain at the top of the party for the foreseeable future.
Nevertheless, many within the DP, including young, ambitious
party activists as well as potential Berisha rivals for the
party chairmanship, are beginning to chafe at Berisha's
nearly 20-year tenure as the head of the DP. Although an
open challenge to Berisha's leadership is unlikely prior to
the elections, growing numbers of DP activists are cautiously
positioning themselves for a post-Berisha DP, with some even
hoping for DP defeat in the parliamentary elections as the
only way to unseat Berisha and make way for a new generation
of DP leaders. END SUMMARY.

A Faction of One
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2. (C) Sali Berisha, despite being seen by many within his
own party as a political liability as the DP heads toward
parliamentary elections, remains firmly in control of his
party. Although numerous minor "factions" exist within the
DP, none present a credible threat to Berisha's continued
leadership. His main rivals for the party leadership,
President Bamir Topi and Speaker of Parliament Josephina
Topalli, have relatively little organized, broad support
within the party, with one observer telling PolOff "there is
no Topi faction" within the DP, while Topalli's supporters in
Parliament are relatively few and all come from her home area
of Shkoder. Former Foreign Minister and DP MP Besnik
Mustafaj has recently taken minor steps to quietly distance
himself from Berisha and boost his image, but most observers
see this as Mustafaj positioning himself to run in the
upcoming DP internal elections for the head of the Tirana
Party Organization and not part of any larger challenge to
Berisha. Barring some unforeseen disaster resulting in a
successful no-confidence motion against Berisha or his
resignation, political observers are unanimous in the belief
Berisha will continue to head the DP as it goes into next
year's elections - for better or worse.

Looking to Life Beyond Berisha
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3. (C) But Berisha's continued iron grip on the party
machinery hasn't stopped others in the party from dreaming of
a day without Berisha - even if this means the party must
lose badly in the parliamentary elections to make it so.
Gjergj Bojaxhi (Amcit, protect),General Director of the
State Electrical Distribution Company (KESH),told PolOff
that although he is a DP supporter, "intellectually" Bojaxhi
is hoping for a DP defeat next summer as this is the only way
to unseat Berisha at the top of the party and make way for a
new generation of party leaders. Bojaxhi went on to describe
the DP's election prospects as "grim," particularly in the
Tirana-Durres corridor, but said that the party has no choice
but to stick with Berisha as it heads towards the elections.
Bojaxhi predicted that a DP victory in the elections could in
the end be bad for the future of the DP, as it would only
extend Berisha's tenure at the top of the party and postpone
much-needed internal party reforms and turnover.

Dangers Ahead for the DP, Berisha
--------------


4. (C) Numerous potential dangers lurk in the next few
months for Berisha and the Democratic Party as the elections
approach. The government's widely-touted anti-corruption
efforts are generally considered a failure by voters, with
some 92 percent of Albanians now believing that corruption is
pervasive. The ongoing Gerdec investigation could yet
implicate members of Berisha's family - an outcome that would
likely be politically devastating to the PD's election
chances - while other members of the Berisha government could
still be hit with corruption charges in connection with the
Durres-Kukes road project. Finally, any economic downturn
would further badly damage Berisha's already tarnished image.


Don't Underestimate Berisha
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5. (C) COMMENT: Berisha, despite numerous recent missteps,
concerns over his health, and whispers that he is becoming a
drag on his party, remains Albania's most canny, saavy
politician. A good example of his political instincts is his
recent insistence that the only thing preventing the
hunger-striking LSI party from joining the Central Election
Commission (reftel) is opposition on the part of the
Socialist Party (SP). Berisha and SP Chair Edi Rama have
certainly cut some kind of deal to exclude LSI and other,
smaller parties from the CEC. But by putting the blame for
the impasse on the SP, Berisha drives yet another wedge into
an already disorganized and divided left. In shoring up his
own DP flanks, Berisha has total control over which
candidates will make it onto the DP party lists for the
upcoming elections, meaning any potential rivals must defer
to Berisha or risk being left off the list. Finally, Berisha
will likely postpone internal DP elections until April or
May, thereby injecting further uncertainty into the DP ranks
and preventing the emergence of any potential rival until
just before the June parliamentary elections. Berisha has
outmaneuvered his political rivals many times in the past,
and he will almost certainly remain in firm control of the DP
as it heads into next year's elections. Of bigger concern
perhaps for the DP will be whether ambitious DP figures give
less than 100 percent towards a DP victory next summer in
hopes of bringing on a defeat for the party that will clear
the way for the next generation of DP leaders.

WITHERS