SCENESETTER FOR EUR DAS STUART JONES' VISIT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TIRANA 000770

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KJUS ECON MARR AL
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR EUR DAS STUART JONES' VISIT TO
TIRANA

Classified By: Ambassador John L. Withers, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) Embassy Tirana warmly welcomes your visit to
Tirana, a city you will find unrecognizable since your last
visit to Albania 14 years ago.


2. (C) Your visit comes at a time of growing uncertainty
for the Albanian public and especially for Albania's
political class. Although the past year and a half - a
period bookended by President Bush's visit to Albania and
U.S. ratification of Albania's NATO invitation - has been
repeatedly hailed by the GOA as confirmation of Albania's
emergence into the Euroatlantic community, the visit and
invitation are now yesterday's news.
Increasingly, Albanians are focusing on next year's
parliamentary elections as well as trying to gauge (and
manage to their own advantage) the fallout from the
nearly-completed investigations into the Gerdec explosion and
into alleged corruption involving the Durres-Kukes road
project.
Although still firmly in charge
of both his Democratic Party (DP) and government, Prime
Minister Sali Berisha faces growing discontent within the
DP as potential successors maneuver for position. Under
growing pressure from the investigations, Berisha has
become increasingly erratic in recent months, lashing out
at the Prosecutor General's Office and judiciary in an
attempt to limit political and potentially criminal
damage to himself, his family and his allies.
Although still largely untouched by the world financial
crisis, many feel it is only a matter of time before
Albania too feels the pinch.


3. (C) During your bilateral meetings you will have the
opportunity to deliver the message straight from Washington
that ongoing government attempts to intimidate prosecutors,
control the judiciary, and take greater control over the
country's intelligence services as well as the free
media, are unacceptable. Such actions not only threaten
Albania's NATO
aspirations, but also risk doing long-term damage to the
bilateral relationship. You should also urge the PM,
President, FM and Defense Minister to accelerate efforts to
clean up Albania's massive, aging and
extremely dangerous stocks of communist-era munitions.
Berisha and FM Basha will spare no effort in using your
visit to prove to Albanians that all is well with the
bilateral relationship. Your public and private comments
will need to be carefully calibrated to show
in no uncertain terms that although we remain Albania's
committed friend and ally, we will not stand by silently as
the GOA tries to roll back hard-won democratic
reforms.

BERISHA: STILL ALBANIA'S "INDISPENSIBLE POLITICIAN"
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4. (C) The key meeting during your visit will be your
bilat with Prime Minister Berisha. Although many in
Berisha's own party increasingly see him as a political
liability, he remains firmly in control of both the party
and the Albanian government. A hard worker and
micromanager, no important decision within the government
is made without his approval. We have every reason to
believe that recent attempts to seize files from the
Prosecutor General's Office and threaten prosecutors with
arrest were approved by Berisha himself. As the Gerdec
investigation nears completion, it appears increasingly
likely that Berisha's son could be implicated - an outcome
that would be politically devastating to Berisha and have
potential criminal consequences for his son Shkelzen. Fear
of this outcome is what is likely driving Berisha's
increasingly anti-democratic behavior - behavior that will
likely only intensify as the investigation
continues. Berisha will need to hear from you in the most
direct terms that his ongoing attempts to undermine
independent institutions are unacceptable, and that we will
not stand aside and allow him to damage Albania's vibrant,
yet still fragile democracy. Berisha must also hear the
message that next year's elections will be a key indicator
of how serious Albania is about democracy, and that even a
technically botched election will be seen not as a simple
technical problem but as a lack of political will and
seriousness about democratic norms.

EDI RAMA: ALBANIA'S NEXT PM?
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5. (C) Your meeting with Tirana Mayor Edi Rama will give

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you an opportunity to meet the man who could be Albania's
next Prime Minister. Over the past two years Rama has
worked hard to boost his and his party's image across the
country, in hopes of winning next year's parliamentary
elections. Rama and his Socialist Party have been
enthusiastic supporters of Albania's NATO aspirations and
of a strong relationship with the U.S. However, many
within Rama's own party are growing impatient with Rama's
seeming reluctance to aggressively confront Berisha over
Gerdec.
Instead, Rama has stressed repeatedly that the SP must work
to defeat Berisha and the DP through elections, and Rama has
opposed using street demonstrations or a no-confidence motion
in Parliament to pressure Berisha. You should stress with
Rama the absolute importance of rapid passage of an
electoral code so that Albania can avoid the last minute
scramble that has plagued previous elections, as well as
his party's role in ensuring good elections next year.

PRESIDENT TOPI: WAITING IN THE WINGS?
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6. (C) Although a member of Berisha's Democratic Party and
nominated by Berisha for the post of President (the
Albanian President is selected by the Parliament, requiring
a 2/3 majority vote),Topi's dislike for Berisha is
palpable. The two remain fierce political rivals, and have
butted heads repeatedly in recent months. Topi is the
Prosecutor General's main political patron and he has
worked to defend the PG's independence against Berisha's
attacks. Although many within the DP and opposition see
Topi as the only person within the DP with the gravitas and
unifying presence to replace Berisha at the head of the
party, Topi's supporters within the DP are relatively weak
and disorganized.

DEFMIN OKETA: THANKS FOR YOUR SUPPORT, GET MOVING ON DEMIL
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7. (C) Our military-to-military relationship remains
outstanding. Albania contributes 215 troops in Iraq, plus
140 to ISAF in Afghanistan. As coalition partners prepare to
leave Iraq at the end of this year, we are working to
possibly re-hat Albanian forces to provide security for
UNAMI, contingent upon ongoing negotiations with the UN and
the Government of Iraq. Domestically,
the Ministry of Defense has undertaken commendable efforts to
modernize and reform its military. However, the armed forces
are still suffering from the aftermath of the March 15 Gerdec
explosion. The fallout from the tragedy included the sacking
of the
Defense Minister as well as most of the top flag officers of
the military,
resulting in a risk-averse general staff. Consequently,
although our Office of Defense Cooperation has close ties and
unprecedented access, reform has dragged. This is especially
true of efforts to eliminate 100,000 tons of excess,
corroding munitions inherited from its communist past which
pose a potentially deadly threat to the civilian population.
Although ODC helped the Minister develop a national
demilitarization plan early this year, to date no significant
demilitarization has taken place. DefMin Oketa is
soft-spoken and
well-respected. While you can commend him on the vast
reforms the Ministry has already undertaken, you should urge
him to continue and increase these efforts. He should hear
from you the critical need
for Albania to accelerate demilitarization efforts.
We are ready to help in any way we can and are currently
exploring additional assistance through EUCOM, but
Albania needs to show its commitment to tackling this problem
by moving forward with its demilitarization plan.

THE ECONOMY: FIRING ON ALL CYLINDERS, BUT FOR HOW LONG?
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8. (C) The Albanian economy continues to hum along at a
strong clip, with GDP growth of over 5 percent for the past
five years. Although still listed as the second poorest
country in Europe, Albania's days as an economic basket
case are long past. Nevertheless, Albania remains
dangerously dependent upon remittances from abroad to offset
its huge trade deficit, and
many fear that the construction sector - the largest single
sector of the economy in terms of GDP - is a bubble waiting
to burst. Foreign investment is very weak, primarily due to
concerns over corruption, property titling, bureaucratic
incompetence, and lack of commercial/administrative courts.
The country remains highly dependent on Italy

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and Greece for both exports and imports, and Greek and
Italian banks dominate the banking sector. Although
Albania has been largely untouched so far by the global
financial crisis, recent weeks have seen increased
withdrawals from banks by cautious depositors. You should
stress to your interlocutors the need for contingency
planning on the part of the GOA - something the Central
Bank has begun but the Finance and Economy Ministries have
not.


WITHERS