Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08TIRANA265
2008-04-07 06:04:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Tirana
Cable title:  

GERDEC: WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

Tags:  PGOV PREL PARM AL 
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PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHTI #0265/01 0980604
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 070604Z APR 08 ZDS
FM AMEMBASSY TIRANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6932
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000265 

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - MESSAGE TEXT PUNCTUATION

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EUR/SCE
DEPT OF JUSTICE FOR OPDAT, ICITQ

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PARM AL

SUBJECT: GERDEC: WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

REF: A: TIRANA 242
B: TIRANA 250

TIRANA 00000265 001.2 OF 002


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000265

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - MESSAGE TEXT PUNCTUATION

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EUR/SCE
DEPT OF JUSTICE FOR OPDAT, ICITQ

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PARM AL

SUBJECT: GERDEC: WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

REF: A: TIRANA 242
B: TIRANA 250

TIRANA 00000265 001.2 OF 002



1. (U) SUMMARY: As Albanian leaders accepted their historic NATO
invitation in Bucharest, the political fallout from the Gerdec
tragedy continues at home. Despite the quick government relief
response to the crisis and the resignation of former Defense
Minister Mediu, a feeding frenzy continues to reign in the media,
while the opposition maintains the steady drumbeat that the Berisha
government has not assumed political responsibility for the tragedy.
The Prosecutor General has launched an investigation into the blast
that could ensnare other members of Prime Minister Berisha's
government. With Bucharest pending, Socialist Party (SP) Chairman
Edi Rama has exercised unusual restraint in attacking the
government, but may no longer feel so constrained. So far, Prime
Minister Berisha is weathering the storm and will certainly feel
that the NATO invitation will strengthen his hand. More
embarrassing revelations, however, or another incident at the
unstable, still unsecured Gerdec blast site could plunge him into
yet deeper political crisis. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) In the aftermath of the March 15 Gerdec explosion, the GOA
has focused on a quick response to victims' needs and continued
assistance to distract attention from questions of culpability. The
government worked rapidly to clear approximately 4,000 residents
from the blast area in the hours following the disaster and has
organized relief assistance, including temporary shelter in some
cases, for local residents whose homes were damaged by the
explosion. It has placed a high priority on locating and
identifying victims. The GOA is managing a relief fund that will
directly compensate to local residents and victims' families, and it
has welcomed U.S. and other experts (as well as donations) for the
cleanup effort. Politically, while the Prime Minister sacrificed
former Defense Minister Mediu within 48 hours of the explosion, he
has declined to make further high-level changes in his government
other than to replace Mediu with former Deputy Prime Minister Oketa

prior to the NATO summit.


3. (SBU) The GOA's relief efforts, although rapid, have come at the
cost of safety concerns at the blast site. Albanian military
officials supervising the search for victims' remains at Gerdec have
repeatedly failed to comply with basic safety recommendations made
by U.S. military specialists from the U.S. European Command (EUCOM).
(Note: A ten-member EUCOM team arrived within a week of the
explosion to assess the situation and make recommendations regarding
site cleanup, environmental risks, and assist with victim
identification as required.) The EUCOM team and Embassy officials
have briefed both the military site commander and senior GOA
officials repeatedly on the dangers posed by unexploded ordnance
that litters the ground over a wide area and that was buried up to
three meters deep under the surface by the force of the explosion.
The GOA has been consistently told that it is unsafe for residents
to move back into their homes until the blast area has been cleared
of all ordnance, a process that could take years. However, Albanian
officials for clearly political reasons have ignored this advice and
have actually accelerated the return of Gerdec residents by
fast-tracking the restoration of power and water services to the
village. In addition to the risk posed by unexploded ordnance, the
EUCOM team and the Embassy have also cautioned senior GOA officials
that residents could be harmed by returning to live in structurally
damaged dwellings and from environmental hazards resulting from the
explosion.


4. (SBU) The government's other immediate reaction was to ask the
Prosecutor General to begin an investigation, which continues to be
followed by media outlets with great interest. Following some
initial staff reshuffling, Prosecutor General Ina Rama has assembled
a competent team within the General Prosecutor's Office. There has
been much speculation about Mediu's fate. However, Rama has not yet
requested Parliament to lift Mediu's immunity from prosecution, and
he currently remains out of reach of most investigative techniques
available to Albanian prosecutors. (Note: Mediu continues to be on
the edge of the limelight. He said publicly March 30 that he would
cooperate with any investigation, and was ready to allow the lifting
of his immunity.) Speculation that Berisha or his son Shkelzen may
have had an interest in the Albanian company that ran the Gerdec
ammunition dismantling factory has not been confirmed so far, though
it remains a popular topic of discussion in cafes and newspapers.


5. (U) The opposition has seized the opportunity to highlight the
government's failure to protect the citizens of Gerdec. Media and
opinion leaders alike have accused the government of a complete
failure by the state in allowing the ammunition dismantling facility
to be located in an inhabited area and to operate without regard to
labor, health, environmental or safety standards. The relatively
swift resignation of Defense Minister Mediu did not quell calls for

TIRANA 00000265 002.2 OF 002


further political responsibility, a drumbeat kept up by
commentators, media outlets, and civil society groups. Majority
coalition members have so far not criticized the Prime Minister as
they address other aspects of the tragedy. With the Bucharest
summit looming, opposition leader Edi Rama has consistently
criticized the government, but with more restraint than his fiery
personality usually exhibits, using his party deputies as a foil
with their more pointed attacks. Ilir Meta, chair of the
opposition's Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) and Rama's
chief opposition rival, has been the toughest and most outspoken of
Berisha's critics on Gerdec. Meta, with less of a chance to succeed
Berisha, has the least to lose by pounding on the Prime Minister and
much to gain from a thorough discrediting of his government.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: There is a strong conviction among the media,
opinion makers, and the informed public that the government, despite
its continued calls for a thorough investigation, is calculatedly
seeking to evade any responsibility for the Gerdec disaster. For
all that, Berisha is still very much on the hook politically: the
public apathy exhibited in the face of other crises, such as
electricity shortages or the 2007 local elections, is not evident on
this occasion and none of the Prime Minister's efforts to get off
the defensive appear to be working this time, no doubt because
Gerdec has come to embody all the government's past failings in
stifling corruption and putting public welfare first. The NATO
invitation will strengthen Berisha's hand for the moment and as long
as his Democratic Party stands behind him, there is little the
opposition can do to topple the government. However, more
embarrassing revelations about what his officials knew or did not
know, or another explosion of the highly unstable and still
unsecured munitions scattered about the Gerdec blast site could
radically alter the political equation with extreme prejudice to
Berisha. In any event, he will not enjoy heading into the 2009
election campaign in such a vulnerable situation.

WITHERS