THIS WEEK IN ALBANIA, MARCH 15-21, 2008

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000218

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SUBJECT: THIS WEEK IN ALBANIA, MARCH 15-21, 2008

REF: A) TIRANA 199 B) TIRANA 200

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1. (U) The following is a weekly report prepared by Embassy
Tirana's local staff to provide political and economic context and
insight into developments in Albania. This week's report is
dedicated to the victims and survivors of the disastrous explosions
at Gerdec on March 15, and focuses on the social and political
ramifications of this tragedy.

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POLITICAL AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENTS
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2. (U) AN EXPLOSION OF NUCLEAR PROPORTIONS: The tragic explosions in
an informal ammunition disassembling unit at Gerdec, a few miles
west of Tirana, have so far claimed the lives of 20 citizens and
injured over 300. The terrible footage from the scene of the
accident showed more than a thousand homes destroyed (over 350
flattened),and hundreds of businesses shattered, shocking a nation
that is still trying to come to terms with the magnitude of the
disaster. Thousands of live rounds were thrown up to three
kilometers from the blast sight, where they detonated or came to
rest on houses and fields. Propellant and gunpowder still litter
the area, which is being cleared, painstakingly and by hand, by
Albanian and international explosive ordnance experts. (For video,
go to youtube.com and type in "Gerdec.") Initial reports suggest
that substandard conditions and lack of enforcement due to corrupt
practices led directly to the tragedy.


3. (U) WHO WILL PAY THE PRICE?: In the last few days, shock and
sympathy have begun to make way for anger. The populace has made
clear that it feels the state failed them, and that justice is due.
As the government investigation continues, serious questions are
being raised regarding the location of the site, so close to major
inhabited areas and the only international airport. Following a
recent honeymoon brought on by expectations of a NATO invitation,
the political scene has since erupted into heated exchanges between
opposition leaders and the Prime Minister, with the former calling
daily for the latter's resignation. A noted political analyst said
that Gerdec demonstrated "the honeymoon was virtual and that cancer
lay beneath." Following the departure of Defense Minister Mediu,
whose resignation, he said, was a moral responsibility, criticism
turned swiftly to the PM, who has gone on the offensive to save his
political career.


4. (U) DEMOCRACY AT WORK: Notably shaken by his visits to the
disaster site, the PM continues his strenuous efforts to hold his
ground, putting disaster cleanup and victims' assistance at the top
of his agenda. However, in addition to the opposition, media and
civil society activists have loudly denounced him as responsible -
if not for the actions he has taken, certainly for what was left
undone. Investigative journalism has gone into overdrive, and fresh
news reports trickle in by the hour to reveal increasingly
compromising bits of information. The full story has not yet come
to light, but press reports fuel the public's general sentiment that
government incompetence and corrupt practices have led directly to
the depressing count of new bodies each day. With TV images
portraying the carnage 24/7, the GOA is fighting an uphill battle to
portray itself as a responsive, responsible, and uncorrupted entity.
Cornered by relentless media scrutiny, the Prime Minister briefly
lost his cool and portrayed some unspecified outlets as "mercenaries
of the mafia." Although the disaster relief fund set up by the GOA
this week may help alleviate some initial pain, the societal shock
waves of the Gerdec explosions will continue to ripple across the
political and social fabric for some time to come.


5. (U) Citizens of the area surrounding the blast site staged a
protest Monday, rallying several hundred to march. A series of
additional protests have been held or are planned, sponsored by
diverse groups including the well-known Mjaft! civil society
organization, the association of armed forces pensioners, student
groups, and the opposition Socialist Party. All peaceful (and
predicted to remain so),this democratic expression gives citizens
an outlet for their anger. How high the volume will go is yet to be
seen, but the number and frequency of scheduled protests is unusual.
Meanwhile, opposition leaders continue to make the case for the
government's resignation, hoping to take power themselves, and the
blame game escalates among government officials. The opposition's

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ability to mobilize political action will be tested this Friday in
their announced mournful silent march of protest against the
government. In the absence of real change in how Albania is
governed, Gerdec could become the threshold for how much injustice
Albanians are willing to take from their elected officials.


6. (U) THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND THE UGLY: From the ashes of this
catastrophe has risen empathy for fellow citizens. There has been
an intense outpouring of grief for those who died, followed by a
profound desire to assist the living. Along with humanitarian
assistance from local NGOs and international organizations, regular
citizens are cobbling together temporary structures of support to
provide cash donations, food, and other basic items for those who
lost everything. Others have provided emotional support such as
child care and post-trauma counseling. Blood drives have been
overwhelmed by the numbers of people arriving to donate. Restaurants
and cafeterias have offered accommodations and food for the
homeless, who are currently sheltered in privately-constructed and
government-provided facilities. Only a small number of politicians
from either coalition have volunteered their own time and money to
current assistance efforts.


7. (U) SURROUNDED BY INFORMALITY: The events in Gerdec tragically
demonstrate the extent of informality in Albanian society. It is
common for homes to be built close to military sites, breaking all
rules of security as they are built without legal building permits.
The tax office confirms that the number of factory employees varied
widely each month from just a few to over 20 (though sources now
confirm that there were more than 120 people working at the Gerdec
site). Existing labor laws were clearly breached as well. Video
confirms that children were working at the dismantling site, and
former employees say none received the required training for the
dangerous job of dismantling ammunitions. Finally, although a
strong negative effect would usually be felt by the insurance
industry following a disaster such as this, informality in the
housing sector meant the majority of homes were uninsured. To date
only 50 claims have been filed, mostly by businesses, though this is
number is expected to grow.

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PERSON OF THE WEEK
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8. (U) PROSECUTOR GENERAL INA RAMA: TRUTH, JUSTICE, AND THE
ALBANIAN WAY (OF THE FUTURE): The government investigation into the
Gerdec tragedy is the first major test for recently appointed
Prosecutor General Ina Rama. Rama has been hailed as one of the new
generation of young, western educated professionals taking
increasingly important roles in government. Her ability to conduct
a thorough, meticulous, and transparent investigation in the wake of
chaos, rumor, and political pressure will prove crucial to the
resolution of the current crisis of confidence. With all major
government players currently under immunity from prosecution, she
faces political and legal challenges to carry the investigation
effectively to its end, letting the chips fall where they may. The
hopes of the nation are riding with her to maintain her
professionalism, keep her cool, and work within or against the
political elite to bring the truth to light and administer justice
without bias. We're rooting for her as well.

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Quote of the Week
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9. (U) "According to approximate calculations, this was a very
powerful nuclear-like explosion, like an atomic bomb going off but
without the radioactivity." Excerpted from President Topi's address
to the nation March 16.

WITHERS