Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08TIRANA193
2008-03-14 10:48:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Tirana
Cable title:
ALBANIANS WILL WELCOME NATO MEMBERSHIP ... ALTHOUGH
how-toVZCZCXRO4935 OO RUEHIK RUEHPOD RUEHYG DE RUEHTI #0193/01 0741048 ZNR UUUUU ZZH O 141048Z MAR 08 FM AMEMBASSY TIRANA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6817 INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000193
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE
E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: NATO PGOV PREL AL
SUBJECT: ALBANIANS WILL WELCOME NATO MEMBERSHIP ... ALTHOUGH
REALITIES ARE BEGINNING TO SINK IN
Ref: TIRANA 102
Summary
-------
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000193
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE
E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: NATO PGOV PREL AL
SUBJECT: ALBANIANS WILL WELCOME NATO MEMBERSHIP ... ALTHOUGH
REALITIES ARE BEGINNING TO SINK IN
Ref: TIRANA 102
Summary
--------------
1. (U) NATO membership is strongly supported by the Albanian public
and officialdom -- over ninety percent favor membership, according
to the media and GOA officials. There are numerous reasons for
this. Emerging from years of isolation, Albanians want to feel and
be recognized as the Europeans they really are. NATO membership
would certainly do that. Also, Albanians want to be able to travel
like Europeans and enjoy a higher quality of life. They see NATO
membership as a way of moving toward these goals by focusing on
reforms, by attracting more foreign investment, and by moving a step
closer to membership in the EU.
2. (U) However, there seems to be a growing sentiment that the GOA
is neglecting domestic policies and concentrating too much on
courting foreign institutions. While electricity blackouts and
water shortages have ceased for the time being, they are still fresh
in the minds of citizens who realize that a whim of nature could
bring the darkness back quickly. Moreover, as prices of daily
commodities rise in response to increased energy costs, some are
beginning to question the government's priorities. Although the
whole spectrum of political parties and the public remain
steadfastly committed to NATO, a few are gradually raising the
question: is foreign recognition worth doubling the price of bread?
End Summary.
High Public Support For NATO?
--------------
3. (U) According to the GOA, popular support for NATO has never been
higher among Albanians, with some GOA estimates as high as 95% of
the population. As the Bucharest Summit approaches, Post has
attempted to identify what Albanians expect will come from a NATO
invitation that generates this kind of enthusiasm. Furthermore,
Post has taken steps to understand what the GOA is anticipating
after the Bucharest Summit assuming an invitation is extended.
4. (SBU) We should clarify that GOA estimates of high popular
support is based on "gut-feel" - there has never been a scientific
poll of any kind asking the general public for its opinion on NATO
membership. Also, while Embassy personnel have tried to explain
obligations of NATO membership to GOA interlocutors, the message has
not sunk in and certainly has not been passed on to the public.
Economic Advantages
--------------
5. (U) The GOA cites mostly economic reasons why being a member of
NATO is a positive step for the future of Albania. Foreign
investment would increase due to investors' greater confidence in
Albania's political stability, rule of law, and fight against
corruption. History reflects this with other countries' membership
in NATO, such as Romania and Bulgaria. However, all the recent NATO
inductees also became members of the European Union shortly after
NATO accession, something that will likely not happen to Albania for
many years.
6. (U) Accounts from new member states also indicate that before
new investment began to boost the economy, which took several years
in some cases, the states experienced a reduction of military
assistance from the Allies, causing an initial belt-tightening and
reduction in economic well-being. Albanians are already grumbling
loudly about soaring food prices. Producers warn that bread prices
could double by the end of this year from 2006 prices. Other food
items have also increased by 25 - 100 percent during the same
period. An electricity rate hike is planned for later this spring,
which, along with spiraling fuel costs, will add to the consumers'
economic burden (reftel). Nevertheless, many Albanians see NATO as
a driver, not an inhibitor, for the GOA to remain committed to
reforms, which, in the longer term, will mean more prosperity for
all.
"The Club"
--------------
7. (U) The real reason for NATO enthusiasm probably has more to do
with national pride and prestige. Albania was an isolated pariah
fr/lT7(kPing them relief - Europeans began to
view Albania as the cradle of organized crime, drugs, and
trafficking, and kept their doors closed.
8. (U) NATO membership, therefore, is important to Albanians because
it tells them that Europeans are beginning to see them more as
TIRANA 00000193 002 OF 002
partners and members of the family. When poloff recently visited a
remote village, he was warmly received because the villagers see the
U.S. as a country that respects them as people and wants to help
them achieve status in Europe. While they knew little of NATO, they
understood that NATO would bring them closer to becoming real
Europeans. FM Basha told USG interlocutors on a recent Washington
visit that Albania owes many of its successes in fighting
corruption, organized crime, trafficking, and a growing economy to
its foreign policy, which has made Albanians feel more respected
then ever.
Travel
--------------
9. (U) An important perceived advantage of being in "The Club" is
the ability to travel freely. Unrestricted travel is a dream for
many Albanians, who consider themselves still to be in a kind of
jail from which they cannot escape without someone's permission.
Many we have talked to seem to think that NATO membership will
suddenly give them freer travel access throughout the world,
possibly confusing NATO membership with EU membership - and
individual national visa regimes.
Comment
--------------
10. (SBU) While politicians continue to boast about high public
support for NATO, there are clearly some holes in the dike. As
mentioned in reftel, Albanians are becoming increasingly
dissatisfied with domestic policies that they blame for higher
prices and an electricity crisis that for the moment is under
control, but that could flare up again anytime. If economic
prosperity immediately following a NATO invitation does not happen,
as may well be the case, the public could become disillusioned with
the GOA quickly. Furthermore, it is a general consensus among many
Albanians that NATO brings security and stability to Albania,
furthering a vision of democracy and freedom. However, few seem to
comprehend that there is a line to toe after the Bucharest Summit.
NATO membership, and essentially the stability it can eventually
provide for Albania, is not achieved by simply accepting an
invitation, but by continuing reforms and integration of NATO
security standards.
WITHERS
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE
E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: NATO PGOV PREL AL
SUBJECT: ALBANIANS WILL WELCOME NATO MEMBERSHIP ... ALTHOUGH
REALITIES ARE BEGINNING TO SINK IN
Ref: TIRANA 102
Summary
--------------
1. (U) NATO membership is strongly supported by the Albanian public
and officialdom -- over ninety percent favor membership, according
to the media and GOA officials. There are numerous reasons for
this. Emerging from years of isolation, Albanians want to feel and
be recognized as the Europeans they really are. NATO membership
would certainly do that. Also, Albanians want to be able to travel
like Europeans and enjoy a higher quality of life. They see NATO
membership as a way of moving toward these goals by focusing on
reforms, by attracting more foreign investment, and by moving a step
closer to membership in the EU.
2. (U) However, there seems to be a growing sentiment that the GOA
is neglecting domestic policies and concentrating too much on
courting foreign institutions. While electricity blackouts and
water shortages have ceased for the time being, they are still fresh
in the minds of citizens who realize that a whim of nature could
bring the darkness back quickly. Moreover, as prices of daily
commodities rise in response to increased energy costs, some are
beginning to question the government's priorities. Although the
whole spectrum of political parties and the public remain
steadfastly committed to NATO, a few are gradually raising the
question: is foreign recognition worth doubling the price of bread?
End Summary.
High Public Support For NATO?
--------------
3. (U) According to the GOA, popular support for NATO has never been
higher among Albanians, with some GOA estimates as high as 95% of
the population. As the Bucharest Summit approaches, Post has
attempted to identify what Albanians expect will come from a NATO
invitation that generates this kind of enthusiasm. Furthermore,
Post has taken steps to understand what the GOA is anticipating
after the Bucharest Summit assuming an invitation is extended.
4. (SBU) We should clarify that GOA estimates of high popular
support is based on "gut-feel" - there has never been a scientific
poll of any kind asking the general public for its opinion on NATO
membership. Also, while Embassy personnel have tried to explain
obligations of NATO membership to GOA interlocutors, the message has
not sunk in and certainly has not been passed on to the public.
Economic Advantages
--------------
5. (U) The GOA cites mostly economic reasons why being a member of
NATO is a positive step for the future of Albania. Foreign
investment would increase due to investors' greater confidence in
Albania's political stability, rule of law, and fight against
corruption. History reflects this with other countries' membership
in NATO, such as Romania and Bulgaria. However, all the recent NATO
inductees also became members of the European Union shortly after
NATO accession, something that will likely not happen to Albania for
many years.
6. (U) Accounts from new member states also indicate that before
new investment began to boost the economy, which took several years
in some cases, the states experienced a reduction of military
assistance from the Allies, causing an initial belt-tightening and
reduction in economic well-being. Albanians are already grumbling
loudly about soaring food prices. Producers warn that bread prices
could double by the end of this year from 2006 prices. Other food
items have also increased by 25 - 100 percent during the same
period. An electricity rate hike is planned for later this spring,
which, along with spiraling fuel costs, will add to the consumers'
economic burden (reftel). Nevertheless, many Albanians see NATO as
a driver, not an inhibitor, for the GOA to remain committed to
reforms, which, in the longer term, will mean more prosperity for
all.
"The Club"
--------------
7. (U) The real reason for NATO enthusiasm probably has more to do
with national pride and prestige. Albania was an isolated pariah
fr/lT7(kPing them relief - Europeans began to
view Albania as the cradle of organized crime, drugs, and
trafficking, and kept their doors closed.
8. (U) NATO membership, therefore, is important to Albanians because
it tells them that Europeans are beginning to see them more as
TIRANA 00000193 002 OF 002
partners and members of the family. When poloff recently visited a
remote village, he was warmly received because the villagers see the
U.S. as a country that respects them as people and wants to help
them achieve status in Europe. While they knew little of NATO, they
understood that NATO would bring them closer to becoming real
Europeans. FM Basha told USG interlocutors on a recent Washington
visit that Albania owes many of its successes in fighting
corruption, organized crime, trafficking, and a growing economy to
its foreign policy, which has made Albanians feel more respected
then ever.
Travel
--------------
9. (U) An important perceived advantage of being in "The Club" is
the ability to travel freely. Unrestricted travel is a dream for
many Albanians, who consider themselves still to be in a kind of
jail from which they cannot escape without someone's permission.
Many we have talked to seem to think that NATO membership will
suddenly give them freer travel access throughout the world,
possibly confusing NATO membership with EU membership - and
individual national visa regimes.
Comment
--------------
10. (SBU) While politicians continue to boast about high public
support for NATO, there are clearly some holes in the dike. As
mentioned in reftel, Albanians are becoming increasingly
dissatisfied with domestic policies that they blame for higher
prices and an electricity crisis that for the moment is under
control, but that could flare up again anytime. If economic
prosperity immediately following a NATO invitation does not happen,
as may well be the case, the public could become disillusioned with
the GOA quickly. Furthermore, it is a general consensus among many
Albanians that NATO brings security and stability to Albania,
furthering a vision of democracy and freedom. However, few seem to
comprehend that there is a line to toe after the Bucharest Summit.
NATO membership, and essentially the stability it can eventually
provide for Albania, is not achieved by simply accepting an
invitation, but by continuing reforms and integration of NATO
security standards.
WITHERS