ELECTORAL REFORMS FOR NATO LEAD TO A "THIRD POLE"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000174

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL NATO AL
SUBJECT: ELECTORAL REFORMS FOR NATO LEAD TO A "THIRD POLE"
IN ALBANIAN POLITICS

REF: A. TIRANA 161

B. TIRANA 117

C. 07 TIRANA 659

D. 06 TIRANA 809

Classified By: DCM Stephen A. Cristina, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Albanian political spectrum changed
abruptly when Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI)
Chairman Ilir Meta declared that his party would no longer
participate in the left-wing coalition. Rather, Meta
registered a new, competing coalition, to which he hopes to
attract the remaining small parties of the left, and possibly
some from the governing coalition as well. Tensions between
Meta and Socialist Party (SP) Chairman Edi Rama had been
building, with reports that Rama was refusing to meet Meta's
power-sharing demands half-way. The fast pace of electoral
reform, spurred by Albania's NATO ambitions and the new era
of cooperation between Rama and Prime Minister Berisha (Ref
B),expedited the split. If the opposition remains divided,
it would give Berisha's Democratic Party (DP) a strong
advantage in 2009 elections, as did the rift between
opposition parties in 2005. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Since the 2005 elections, LSI Chairman Meta has
gone to great pains to prove his loyalty to the five-party
opposition coalition. Meta's withdrawal from partnership
with the SP in those elections is widely credited with
causing the failure of the left and the return of the DP-led
coalition to power. According to contacts, Meta met Rama at
his Tirana mayoral office and presented specific demands,
such as a guarantee for an increase in LSI MPs from five to
15 in 2009 elections. It is widely believed he sought an
understanding on the office of prime minister, as well. The
requests were reportedly all refused.


3. (C) Immediately upon leaving the meeting at the mayoral
office, an infuriated Meta began publicly attacking Rama's
integrity and his legitimacy as a member of the Socialist
Party or of the left. He then smoothly praised the values of
genuine socialism and the contribution of the Socialist Party
and its governments. The performance was vintage Meta, the
Meta of the 1990 student movement, the Meta who led the Youth
Socialist Party Forum (FRESH),the twice former Prime
Minister -- with his indisputable contribution to the
Socialist Party and multiple Albanian governments. (It also
had distant overtones of the Ilir Meta who came close to
physically assaulting Parliament Speaker Topalli on the floor
of the Parliament in 2006 (Ref D).) Then Meta took the
practical step of registering in the courts a new political
movement called "Coalition: The Left for Integration."


4. (C) With the onset of serious electoral reform, tension
has been brewing between Albania's two large parties (SP and
DP) on one side and its multiple small parties on the other.
Earlier this year, the small parliamentary parties of both
the governing and opposition coalitions joined in an
unofficial one-issue coalition to resist any reform of the
electoral system that would strengthen the larger parties at
the expense of their smaller brethren. Meta's new coalition
offers these parties an alternative. Shortly after its
formation, sources close to former SP Chair Fatos Nano and
Meta confirmed the two had reached a deal during a quiet
lunch. Some of the six ousted Nano SP MPs who had voted for
President Topi (Ref C) have already conveyed public support
for Meta's endeavor. (COMMENT: "Deals" with Nano are
frequently rumored and almost as frequently fail to
materialize. In this case, however, it is interesting to
note that one of LSI's most outspoken Nano critics has, since
the formation of the new "Coalition," refrained from
criticizing the former SP chair, even when baited to do so on
a television talk show. END COMMENT.) Other SP MPs, known
in political circles as "the unspoken," are considered fluid
enough in their loyalties to move to the new coalition.
Social Democracy Party's (PDS) Paskal Milo remains Meta's
loyal ally. Some small parties of the ruling coalition could
also decide to join the new umbrella.


5. (SBU) Meta is really the only small party Albanian
parliamentarian elected directly and with a relatively strong
popular identity. While neither LSI nor the new "Coalition:
The Left for Integration" can yet offer an equal prospect of
future power as SP and DP, if the new coalition attracts some
additional supporters, it stands to become a solid third pole
and king-maker. It is unclear if there is sufficient
discontent among the two major coalitions that we will see
smaller partners peeling off, even with a seemingly
inexorable push by SP and DP to move forward with electoral
reform that is highly likely to disenfranchise at least a few
of the smaller partners. SP and DP will, however, try to
lure their closest small allies, at least enough of them to
secure sufficient parliamentary votes for constitutional and

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electoral changes. (Constitutional changes require a
two-thirds parliamentary vote, or 94 favorable votes.)


6. (C) Asked if the new coalition was intended for the 2009
elections, a subdued Chairman of LSI's Executive Committee
said "it remains to be seen." Echoing Meta's public remarks,
Edmond Haxhinasto said LSI was unwilling to be part of a
"dictatorial" opposition. If this new "third pole" remains,
it is much more harmful to SP and Edi Rama then to PM Berisha
and DP. Berisha's coalition partners are generally more
disciplined and less likely to defect, at least as long as
government positions and lucre are within reach. Rama cannot
make it alone. LSI condemned the socialists to opposition
once; Meta's new umbrella can get enough votes to leave the
SP out once more. As the 2009 elections approach, Rama will
have to cope with Meta. For now, he has adopted an open,
unifying and receptive public stand, even, as he said, for
"his friend Ilir Meta." Rama's task will be to continue as
the "uniting force" of the opposition, while preventing
Berisha and Nano from pulling Meta into their corners. His
greatest challenge will be how to accommodate Meta's declared
interest in the Prime Minister's post.


7. (SBU) Pundits and opinion makers across the political
spectrum have dismissed the demands of the small parties in
the electoral reform debate, instead showing considerable
support for "getting the job done." In contrast, the SP-LSI
split, however, has been portrayed -- approvingly -- as an
"honest confrontation" on issues, rather than a battle of
personalities.
WITHERS