Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08TELAVIV738
2008-03-28 11:16:00
SECRET
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

CODEL BOEHNER'S MEETING WITH PRIME MINISTER OLMERT

Tags:  PREL PTER IR SY KWBG XG IS 
pdf how-to read a cable
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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 000738 

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H PASS TO CODEL BOEHNER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2018
TAGS: PREL PTER IR SY KWBG XG IS
SUBJECT: CODEL BOEHNER'S MEETING WITH PRIME MINISTER OLMERT

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones, Reason 1.4 (B) (D)

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 000738

SIPDIS

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H PASS TO CODEL BOEHNER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2018
TAGS: PREL PTER IR SY KWBG XG IS
SUBJECT: CODEL BOEHNER'S MEETING WITH PRIME MINISTER OLMERT

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones, Reason 1.4 (B) (D)


1. (S) Summary. CODEL Boehner met with Prime Minister Ehud
Olmert March 23. They discussed Israeli-Palestinian peace
negotiations and Olmert's concerns about Hamas-Fatah
discussions in Yemen, Vice President Cheney's visit and the
Iranian nuclear threat, the possibility of Israel negotiating
with Syria and Syria's support for terrorism, the challenges
posed by Hamas' control of Gaza, and Olmert's favorable view
of European leaders. Olmert complained about Fatah's
discussions with Hamas in Yemen, saying that the PA could not
negotiate with Israel and with Hamas at the same time. He
warned that agreement on another Palestinian National Unity
Government would mean the end of the Israeli-Palestinian
negotiations. Olmert noted that Israel has a different
assessment of Iran's nuclear program than that conveyed by
the recent NIE, and said Israeli experts would brief Vice
President Cheney later that day. Olmert said Syria's links
to Iran should be broken, either by talking to the Syrians or
by force. Olmert has sent messages to President Asad
offering to resume negotiations without preconditions. Syria
has responded rhetorically by expressing interest in
negotiations, but at the same time continues to support
terrorism and serve as Iran's ally in the region. Olmert
called for closer U.S.-Israeli coordination on Syria, noting
that if Israel starts to negotiate with Syria, there should
first be a U.S.-Israeli understanding on the approach. Asked
about Gaza, Olmert denied there was a ceasefire agreement
with Hamas, noting that even in a "quiet" week, about sixty
Qassam rockets had been fired from Gaza at Israel. Olmert
warned that Israel planned to act in Gaza militarily in a way
that would inflict serious damage on Hamas, although he added
that the GOI is still considering when and how. Olmert
praised several European leaders, including Angela Merkel and
Nicolas Sarkozy, but he stressed that Europe was no
substitute for the U.S. Congressman Boehner said the only

true friends of the U.S. in the Middle East were the Israeli
people. End summary.


2. (U) CODEL Boehner, composed of House Minority Leader John
Boehner (R, OH),Representative John Carter (R, TX),
Representative Pete Hoekstra (R, MI),Representative Jeff
Miller (R, FL),and Representative Peter Roskam (R, IL),
accompanied by Pol Couns and Congressional staffers Jen
Stewart and James Lewis, called on Prime Minister Ehud Olmert
March 23. Olmert was joined by Chief of Staff Yoram
Turbowicz, Foreign Policy Adviser Shalom Tourgeman, Military
Adviser MG Meir Klifi, Media Adviser Mark Regev, and MFA
Congressional Affairs officer Yaron Sideman.

Concern about Fatah-Hamas Dialogue
--------------


3. (C) Noting that the CODEL had met with PA Prime Minister
Fayyad the previous day, Olmert asked for their sense of
Fayyad's bottom line. Representative Boehner said Fayyad was
trying to get his hands around the entire set of messy
issues. Fayyad wants an agreement with Israel, but also
realizes that he faces big challenges. Olmert asked whether
Fayyad understands the security challenges. Boehner replied
that he thought Fayyad understands the difficulties, adding
that Fayyad is satisfied with the training that PA security
forces are receiving in Jordan.


4. (C) Olmert praised Fayyad, calling him a "decent guy."
Arafat was a terrorist, but Fayyad and President Abbas are
genuinely interested in peace. Olmert then noted that one
condition he had set for Israeli participation on the
Annapolis process was that the PA not start "flirting" with
Hamas again. The PA could not talk to Israel and to Hamas at
the same time. Olmert stated that President Bush and
Secretary Rice had agreed with him about not accepting a new

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Palestinian National Unity Government, and Abbas had promised
him that there would be no negotiations with Hamas.
Recently, however, Fatah had been conducting negotiations
with Hamas in Sanaa. This was "intolerable," Olmert
stressed, adding that Abbas had not even insisted on his own
precondition that Hamas first agree to give up control of
Gaza. Olmert said that no one had treated Palestinians more
brutally than Hamas was doing in Gaza, recalling that Hamas
gunmen had thrown wounded Fatah officials out of the fifth
floor windows of hospitals. Abbas's overtures toward Hamas
were "a risky game."

Stopping Iran's Nuclear Program
--------------


5. (S) In response to Representative Boehner's question

TEL AVIV 00000738 002 OF 003


about Vice President Cheney's visit, Olmert said their
discussions had been "enlightening and horizon-broadening."
The Vice President is an old friend who cuts to the crux of
matters. Olmert noted that most of their discussions had
been about Iran. Israel has a different assessment of Iran's
nuclear program than that presented in the U.S. National
Intelligence Estimate (NIE). The British, French and German
intelligence services were all closer to Israel's view than
to the NIE. Olmert noted that Israeli intelligence experts
would brief the Vice President in detail later that day.


6. (S) The Israeli assessment is that Iran is still working
on a weapons program. Within two years it may possess enough
fissile material to make a bomb, as well as a delivery
system. The international community must deal with the
Iranian threat. The question was whether sanctions would be
sufficient to stop it. The enforcement of sanctions required
the cooperation of Russia and China. Olmert said he thought
there was an opportunity to use the Beijing Olympic Games as
leverage to get China to adopt a tougher position on Iran.
If China did so, Russia would follow since Moscow would not
want to be isolated. Olmert praised the work done by the
U.S. Treasury Department to increase the financial pressure
on Iran, noting that Israelis were impressed by the success
of this approach. Representative Boehner said the latest UNSC
vote on a third sanctions resolution helped keep up the
pressure on Iran, and added that the U.S. should consider
Olmert's idea about China. Boehner stated that Iran was also
an obstacle to reaching an Israeli-Palestinian agreement,
which he hoped could be achieved.

How to Handle Syria?
--------------


7. (S) Representative Hoekstra mentioned a series of
developments involving Syria, including the still-mysterious
September 9 airstrike on a site in northern Syria, as well as
the assassination of Hizballah operations chief Imad Mughniya
in Damascus in February. Regarding the September 9
airstrike, Olmert responded that he had never said anything
about it publicly, but he added that fuel tanks of Israeli
jets had been found in Turkey near the Syrian border. Asked
where Israeli-Syrian relations were headed, Olmert said this
was an important subject and thanked Hoekstra for raising it.
Removing Syria from the updated Axis of Evil -- which Olmert
defined as Iran, Syria, Hizballah and Hamas -- was in the
interests of both Israel and the U.S. Syria now serves as
Iran's forward base in the Middle East, through which Iran
provides weapons and expertise to Hizballah and Hamas, as
well as Iranian weapons for Syria itself. Syria undermines
and manipulates Lebanon, and offers sanctuary and facilities
for the Hamas leadership abroad in Damascus. Syria is also
the main transit country for foreign terrorists going to
Iraq. Olmert noted that there are two ways to weaken Syria's
links to Iran, one of which is by talking to the Syrians.


8. (S) Olmert said that Israel has signalled to Syria that
it is ready to talk without preconditions. If the Syrians
respond positively, Israel and the U.S. will need to develop
an understanding about Israel's approach. Olmert noted that
the Syrians "know what I want" and realize that he is not
trying to embarrass them. So far, however, the Syrian
response has been limited to some public statements affirming
Syria's desire to negotiate, but meanwhile Syria is
continuing to provide "aggressive support" to Hizballah and
Hamas. Noting that it was the fortieth day following the
killing of Mughniya, Olmert said Hizballah had sent clear
signals about an impending "retaliation" while Syria was
stepping up its supply of weapons to Hizballah. If Hizballah
acted from Lebanon, Syria would be directly implicated.


9. (S) Olmert said Syrian behavior raised questions about
whether it might be best to confront Syria rather than try to
negotiate. Israel would prefer negotiations, but only if
Israel and the U.S. would benefit. It remained to be seen
whether it would be possible to convince Syria to change its
approach to Lebanon, Iran, terrorism and Iraq.
Representative Hoekstra asked whether Bashar Al-Asad was
firmly in charge of Syria. Olmert responded that Bashar was
in full control. "Bashar is no dummy," Olmert commented,
since he decided not to respond to the September 9 "event."
Syria's mobile missile systems were on full alert, but Bashar
had decided not to order them to fire. "That took
discipline," Olmert observed.

How to Get Hamas Out of Gaza?
--------------


TEL AVIV 00000738 003 OF 003



10. (S) Representative Hoekstra asked Olmert whether Israel
had a plan for getting Hamas out of Gaza. Olmert replied
that Israel would not tolerate the continued shooting of
rockets from Gaza. Israel will act in Gaza, in a way that
will cause "great pain" to Hamas. Israel may not be able to
destroy Hamas in Gaza, but it can hurt them badly enough that
they will be forced to reconsider their actions.
Representative Boehner asked about the basis for the relative
calm in terms of rocket fire over the past week. Olmert
responded that there was no ceasefire with Hamas; more than
60 rockets had been fired at Israel during the past "quiet"
week. He asked the CODEL to think of Dayton, Ohio, a city
about the same size as Ashkelon. Two hundred and fifty
thousand Israelis were living in the area now within Grad
rocket range of Gaza.


11. (S) Three weeks earlier, according to Olmert, the IDF
had penetrated Gaza with ground forces and killed about 120
Hamas members, so Hamas needed to recuperate. Hamas was
using the current quiet to smuggle in more Grads and to build
rocket launching sites in parts of Gaza from which they had
not previously launched rockets. This was an "old pattern"
in which Hamas signals a desire for quiet and then starts
firing the rockets again when it suits them, for example in
"retaliation" for IDF counter-terrorism operations in the
West Bank. This "old pattern" would continue until Israel
"punishes them in a more serious way." Olmert said that
"when and how" the military operation would be conducted had
not yet been decided, but he stressed that he wanted the
CODEL to understand Israel's actions when they happen.

New Era in Israel's Relations with Europe
--------------


12. (C) Representative Roskam asked about Israel's relations
with Europe. Olmert replied that Chancellor Merkel had just
visited Israel, and she was a "real friend." Merkel was
accompanied by eight cabinet ministers and they signed four
bilateral agreements. President Sarkozy now wants to visit
Israel with an even bigger delegation than Merkel's. Gordon
Brown is also a "good guy," and Berlusconi may return to
power in Italy. Israel also has good relations with Denmark,
Holland, and Austria. The current group of European leaders
is a different bunch than those President Bush had to deal
with at the time of the invasion of Iraq. Olmert then added,
"but at the end of the day, it's the U.S. that counts."
Representative Boehner responded that the Israeli people are
the only true friends of the United States in the Middle
East. Boehner said he understood the difficulties in Gaza
and the challenges of reaching an agreement with the PA. An
agreement with Syria might be easier to achieve. Olmert said
he agreed, adding that peace was always Israel's priority,
but Israel also had to be prepared for other eventualities.


13. (U) CODEL Boehner did not have the opportunity to clear
this message.





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