ISRAELI POLLSTER PROVIDES INTERESTING DATA

UNCLAS TEL AVIV 002620

C O R R E C T E D COPY -- PRIMARY TAG ADDED

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD
JERUSALEM FOR PAO MSCHWEITZER-BLUHM & ICD ADANIELS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC, KPAL, KPLS, KPAO, IS
SUBJECT:ISRAELI POLLSTER PROVIDES INTERESTING DATA

1. During a November 20 meeting with the PAO, pollster Jacob Shamir
of Hebrew University provided some interesting data:

- Only 25% of Israelis support reoccupying Gaza. 41% support ad hoc
operations in Gaza and 27% support using diplomatic means.

- When Israelis are asked about Israeli conventional wisdom on
talking with Hamas, a large majority (no figure provided) believe
that other Israelis are against it. When questioned how they feel
personally about talking to Hamas, 56% are in favor.

- An overwhelming majority (no figure provided) of Israelis support
negotiating with Hamas over Gilad Shalit's release.

- 25% of Israelis support returning the Golan Heights to Syria

- A large number of Israelis and Palestinians (no figure provided)
support the Clinton parameters for a peace agreement.

2. The conversation took place the same day that Israeli newspapers
were carrying front page stories about Netanyahu's large lead in the
polls. Shamir felt that the lead will not hold because the campaign
has not really begun and because Israelis are likely to blame the
financial reforms that Netanyahu implemented during his previous
time as Prime Minister for the growing Israeli financial crisis.

3. Comment: Israel is a heavily polled society but Shamir always
offers new ways of looking at the data. He is also the only Israeli
pollster working with a partner on the West Bank. They are
currently polling on views of the new administration and how it
should approach the peace process. Shamir has offered to share that
data when it becomes available. MORENO