TENSION ESCALATES ALONG GAZA BORDER

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002547

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2018
TAGS: PTER PGOV MOPS KPAL IS
SUBJECT: TENSION ESCALATES ALONG GAZA BORDER

REF: TEL AVIV 2469

Classified By: DCM Luis G. Moreno, reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (S) Summary: Hostilities continue to escalate along the
Gaza border despite the current ceasefire -- "tahdiyeh" --
not scheduled to expire until December 19. Following a
November 4 IDF raid into the Gaza Strip to destroy a tunnel
(reftel),Palestinian terror organizations have steadily
barraged Israeli territory with over 150 rockets and mortars.
Four Hamas operatives were killed by IDF forces on November
12, leading to further rocket and mortar attacks. IDF and
open sources indicate the IDF has been approved to operate in
a security perimeter inside Gaza, while rules of engagement
(ROE) have been expanded. The IDF postponed a change of
command ceremony on November 13 for the Gaza Division
Commander, and Defense Minister Barak has ordered that the
Gaza border crossings remain closed. The GOI and Hamas both
have stated publicly they have no desire to break the current
ceasefire; however, both accuse the other of provocations and
say they will respond to any attack, increasing the
possibility that the situation may spiral out of control.
IDF and open sources suggest the Palestinian Islamic Jihad
(PIJ) is primarily responsible for the latest rocket and
mortar attacks. However, the GOI has made clear that it
holds Hamas responsible for any rocket or mortar attack
emanating from Gaza. End summary.


2. (SBU) The most serious escalation since the beginning of
the tahdiyeh on June 19 began November 4 with an IDF raid
into Gaza to close a tunnel purportedly to be used to kidnap
Israeli soldiers deployed near the border security fence.
Since the November 4 raid, over 150 rockets and mortars have
been fired into the Negev and the coastal area north of Gaza,
with some hitting the center of Ashkelon. On November 12,
IDF forces again entered Gaza in pursuit of a Hamas terrorist
cell; four Hamas militants were killed. One long-range Grad
rocket landed south of Ashkelon on November 13. During the
morning of November 14, open sources report 11 Qassam rockets
and three mortars landing near Sderot, and four Grad rockets
landing in the vicinity of Ashkelon; seven Israelis were
treated for shock, and one woman was lightly injured.
Following this latest barrage, media reported an Israel Air
Force strike at a rocket-launching area in northern Gaza.


3. (S) IDF and open sources indicate that the IDF has been
approved to operate inside a security perimeter around Gaza,
and that ROEs have been expanded. These expanded ROEs do not
represent a significant change; long-standing IDF ROEs allow
for counter-rocket strikes inside Gaza. However, the
expanded ROEs indicate a heightened level of readiness; IDF
sources note a redoubling of efforts in preparation of a
possible collapse of the ceasefire. The state of alert in
the IDF Gaza Division has been raised, and IDF Southern
Regional Commander Maj. Gen. Galant and IDF Chief of Staff
Lt. Gen. Ashkenazi decided to postpone the change of command
ceremony for outgoing Gaza Division Commander Chico Tamir
with his successor Brig. Gen. Eyal Eisenberg five hours prior
to the scheduled start time on November 13.


4. (SBU) In response to the rocket and mortar attacks,
Minister of Defense Barak has ordered that the border
crossings with Gaza be closed. As a result, the United
Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) was unable to carry
out planned food distributions on November 13 due to a
depletion of available commodities inside Gaza. Fuel
shortages have resulted in blackouts for some 600,000 Gazans
and compromised operations in Gaza City hospitals. The GOI
had announced November 11 that it would resume fuel shipments
to Gaza, although only slightly more than half of the
expected 400,000 liters was delivered November 12, and no
fuel was delivered November 13 due to two Qassam rockets
landing near the Nahal Oz fuel terminal. Barak was quoted on
Israel Radio the evening of November 13 saying that he would
not endanger the lives of Israeli soldiers in order to keep
Gaza supplied with fuel.


5. (SBU) On November 13, media sources indicate Prime
Minister Olmert and Defense Minister Barak consulted
(presumably by phone) with Egyptian Intelligence Minister
Omar Soliman, reiterating that Israel will not be the first
to break the tahdiyeh, but will "not hesitate to act" in
response to any attack. Hamas also has publicly indicated it
does not want to break the tahdiyeh, accusing Israel of
provocations. A Hamas spokesperson told the Israeli
newspaper Haaretz that Hamas is interested in maintaining the
truce, but "not from a position of weakness."


6. (S) IDF and open sources suggest the Palestinian Islamic
Jihad (PIJ) has been primarily responsible for the latest
rocket and mortar attacks. Media outlets speculate that
earlier rockets and mortars landing in uninhabitable areas
were launched by Hamas, suggesting a desire not to break the

TEL AVIV 00002547 002 OF 002


tahdiyeh. That said, the GOI has made clear that it holds
Hamas responsible for any rocket or mortar attack emanating
from Gaza.

Comment
--------------


7. (S) The GOI and Hamas have publicly reiterated interest in
maintaining the tahdiyeh, although IDF and MOD sources have
warned that Hamas is using the period of calm to build up its
forces. However, both sides continue to test the other;
rhetoric has increased as hostilities escalate. It is
possible that the situation could spiral out of control,
leading to a collapse of the tahdiyeh. An IDF resumption of
targeted killings of Hamas officials not directly engaged in
launching rockets or mortars would likely indicate a GOI
decision to end the ceasefire.

********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv

You can also access this site through the State Department's
Classified SIPRNET website.
********************************************* ********************
CUNNINGHAM