THE AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES IRAN WITH EXPERTS AT THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 002436

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2018
TAGS: PREL KNNP MOPS IR CH RU IS
SUBJECT: THE AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES IRAN WITH EXPERTS AT THE
PRESTIGIOUS INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES

Classified By: Ambassador James B. Cunningham, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) Summary. The Ambassador met with Institute for
National Security Studies (INSS) Director Oded Eran and
members of the INSS staff October 29. INSS is the premier
security studies center, with close links to the Israeli
military and intelligence communities. The discussion
focused on Israeli thinking about how the U.S. and Israel
should deal with the Iranian challenge. The INSS
researchers, including retired Major General and former NSC
adviser Giora Eiland and several other leading Israeli
experts on strategic and nuclear issues, presented several
Israeli viewpoints that ranged from need for the U.S. to
address Russian priorites in order to gain Moscow's support
for a stronger international effort to block Iran's nuclear
program,to taking a regional approach to engaging Iran. The
principal common denominator in the Israeli views was that
the credible use of force against Iran must be a key element
if efforts to stop Iran's enrichment of uranium and to
influence Iran on regional issues are to have any chance of
success. While unanimous on the need for a credible threat,
the INSS researchers' views on the possible use of force were
nuanced, with one nuclear expert arguing that it may not be
possible to stop Iran's nuclear program by force. INSS
Director Eran predicted that the Iranian threat would "dwarf
all other issues facing Israel in 2009." INSS is preparing
recommendations for the GOI, and the need for the U.S. to
engage Russia to focus on Iran will be a key element. The
Ambassador stressed that Iran would be a top priority for the
U.S. during the remaining months of the Bush Administration
as well as for the next Administration because Iran touches
on all critical issues in the Greater Middle East. Without
prejudging the policy of the next Administration, the
Ambassador said it will be a top priority for this and the
next U.S. administration to deal with both Iran's nuclear
program and its regional activities. He concluded that the
U.S. and Israel will have to work closely together during the
course of the year. End Summary.


2. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by PAO and PolCouns,
visited the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security
Studies, an independent think tank formerly associated with
Tel Aviv University that has become Israel's preeminent
national security think tank. INSS Director Oded Eran, a
former Ambassador to the EU and to Jordan, invited the INSS
research team to engage the Ambassador in a discussion on the
challenges posed to U.S. and Israeli interests by Iran. The
INSS researchers included retired Major Generals Giora Eiland
and Aharon Zeevi Farkash, former Israel Atomic Energy
Commission nuclear expert Ephraim Askulai, academic
strategist Emily Landau, former Deputy Foreign Minister
Yehuda Ben Meir, and former Israeli military intelligence
analyst Ephraim Kam. Eran began the discussion by noting
that INSS had just completed a project for the GOI on the
Iranian threat and has been tasked with preparing policy
advice on Israel's agenda with the next U.S. Administration.
A core recommendation will be to encourage the U.S. to focus
on Russia and to engage it on Iran.

Unite the International Community
--------------


3. (C) Retired Major General Farkash noted that Iran has had
a nuclear program since the 1960s; the Shah also had
ambitions for Iran to be a regional superpower. Since the
2003 invasion of Iraq, the Iranian regime has wanted a bomb
to prevent a U.S. attempt at regime change. Iran's nuclear
program enjoys a consensus among Iran's leadership. Israel
is not the primary target of the program. As noted in the
NIE, Iran demonstrated its pragmatism by halting its weapons
program from 2003 to 2005. The only way to affect Iran's
plans is through a united international community, including
Russia and China. Economic pressure can have a real effect
on Iran if the price of oil falls below $50/barrel. Israel
can support the international effort by sharing intelligence.


4. (C) Retired Major General and former NSC adviser Eiland
focused his remarks on Russia, which he said is opposed to a
nuclear Iran but assigns Iran a lower priority than several
other issues. He said the Russians have been clear in their
conversations with Israels that they are frustrated with
American policy. Russia's primary interests are to avoid
foreign interference in Russia's domestic politics, to keep
the former Soviet Republics under Russian influence, and for
Russia to be treated as an equal by the U.S. Eiland argued
that U.S. policy over the past five years has undermined all
three top Russian priorities. China and India are hiding
behind Russia. The only way to unite the international
community is a U.S. grand bargain with Russia in which the
U.S. addresses Russia's priorities in return for robust
Russian support on Iran. Eiland added that it may, however,

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be too late.

Engage Iran in Regional Dialogue
--------------


5. (C) Landau said she thought Russia was one of several
factors in handling Iran. Noting that she did not think Iran
would agree to suspend enrichment, Landau said the point of
international pressure must be to get Iran to negotiate
seriously. A regional solution going beyond the nuclear
issue must be the goal, and that requires the U.S. to engage
Iran on the full range of regional issues.


6. (C) Kam agreed that the Arab states, with the exception
of Syria, are alarmed by Iran's growing power, but they are
unable to contain Iran. Tougher sanctions, combined with a
credible military option can still convince Iran to halt its
nuclear program, but only if Iran understands it will face
attack unless it changes course. Ben Meir said he shared
Eiland's sense of Russia's priorities, but the U.S. also has
its priorities and cannot be expected to change its
principles in order to gain Russia's support on Iran. Ben
Meir doubted sanctions could compel Iran to change course in
any event. Instead, the U.S. should put a regional proposal
including incentives as well as the credible threat of force
on the table with Iran. Getting Iran to stop enrichment is
critical. Eran commented that the group had outlined two
separate Grand Bargains: one with Russia, another with Iran,
with the U.S. as the key to both. The Arabs play a double
game, signaling to Israel and the U.S. quietly that they
would not object if others would use force against Iran, but
failing to confront Iran and cautioning against force in
their public statements.

Don't Discount China
--------------


7. (C) While agreeing that a tougher Russian stance would be
useful, the Ambassador urged the Israelis not to discount
China. China claims that Iran is not for it a core issue,
but a war with Iran would affect China more than many other
countries due to China's dependence on imported energy. We
should look for ways to get China more engaged and to see
Iran as a problem for the international community rather than
a problem for the U.S. and Israel. The Ambassador pointed
out that a halt to enrichment and a regional approach are
related, but of different natures. We have a clear goal on
the nuclear program. Dealing with Iran's destabilizing
influence in the region is crucial, but the regional
dimension is more diffuse and efforts to counter Iran will
not yield quick or clear results. A nuclear Iran would be a
regional problem, so there should be a way to work with the
Arabs more effectively.


8. (C) On the issue of Arab support on Iran, other speakers
said the next U.S. Administration should be careful not to
raise options if it is not serious about pursuing them or the
U.S. risks losing credibility. The U.S. should also stop
talking about a nuclear Iran as primarily a threat to Israel,
since that makes it harder to build Arab support. U.S.
pressure on Israel to do more for the Palestinians and a more
explicit U.S. commitment to the security of the Gulf states
along the lines of the Carter Doctrine of the late 1970s
could also help with the Arabs.

U.S. Priorities
--------------


9. (C) Ben Meir commented that the Middle East may not be
the top priority of the next U.S. Administration. He said he
sensed "despair" in Washington about the Middle East in
general. Ben Meir cautioned that assigning a lower priority
to the Middle East could be dangerous since the problems will
only get worse if the U.S. does not behave proactively.
Landau noted that while she agreed with the Ambassador that
there are two agendas, the nuclear one and the regional one,
the international community is not succeeding in getting Iran
to stop enrichment. If Iran gets a bomb, its regional
position will be greatly strengthened. The goal should be to
start the regional dialogue sooner rather than later.
Iran Dwarfs All Other Issues
--------------


10. (C) Nuclear expert Askulai commented that enrichment is
only part of the problem since we do not know whether Iran
has a parallel secret program. For that reason, Askulai said
he was not sure that a military strike could achieve the
desired results. The timeline is getting shorter all the
time. Sanctions on Iran must be something like those once
imposed on Iraq: no trade except for food and medicine, and
a travel ban.

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11. (C) Eran summed up, saying that the Iranian challenge
would dwarf all other issues facing Israel in the next year,
and could even prevent Israel from taking action on other
issues. In the ongoing debate in Israel, some argue that it
is possible to deter a nuclear Iran, but others, such as
former Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh, are arguing that
if Iran obtains a bomb, it will mean a second Holocaust and
therefore that must be prevented.


12. (C) The Ambassador concluded that Iran will be a top
issue for the next U.S. Administration no matter who wins the
election. The U.S. has global interests, and Iran is at the
center of the most dangerous part of the world, with links to
Afghanistan, Iraq, the Gulf, and the Israeli-Arab issue.
Without seeking to prejudge the next Administration's policy,
the Ambassador said Iran will be at the top of the U.S.
agenda now and for the next Administration, and the U.S. and
Israel should work closely together over the next year. .



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