Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08TELAVIV2391
2008-10-24 15:40:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

KADIMA AND SHAS BRINKMANSHIP

Tags:  PREL PGOV PINR IS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO3598
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHTV #2391 2981540
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 241540Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8891
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 002391 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR IS
SUBJECT: KADIMA AND SHAS BRINKMANSHIP

Classified By: Ambassador James B. Cunningham. Reason 1.4 (B/D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 002391

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR IS
SUBJECT: KADIMA AND SHAS BRINKMANSHIP

Classified By: Ambassador James B. Cunningham. Reason 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Late on October 23, Kadima Party leader
Tzipi Livni issued an ultimatum to the Shas Party. Kadima
reportedly offered Shas some 650 million NIS (approximately
170 million USD) for family allowances, and Livni told party
activists that it was now time for Shas to decide. She also
indicated that she had requested a meeting with President
Peres on October 26 to brief him on whether she is able to
form a coalition or not. On October 24, Shas announced its
rejection of Kadima's offer and its decision not to enter
Livni's government. These latest examples of political
brinkmanship may not be the last, as there remain "38 hours"
in the words of one Kadima aide before Livni is slated to see
President Peres and convey her assessment of whether she has
a coalition or not. If she does not, Peres could intervene
and urge Kadima and Shas to make a last-ditch effort to forge
a compromise. If not, then early elections are in the
offing, as Livni is unlikely to opt to try to form a narrow
government, according to Kadima contacts. End Summary.

--------------
SHAS DECIDES NOT TO ACCEPT KADIMA OFFER
--------------


2. (U) On October 24, the Shas Party replied formally that
the party was unable to reach agreement with Kadima on two
issues: Jerusalem and family allowances for the poor.
Consequently, the party's spiritual leader, Rabbi Ovadia
Yosef, decided not to continue coalition talks, according to
Shas spokesman, Roei Lachmanovich. Shas Party leader Eli
Yishai gave a news conference in which he elaborated the Shas
position:

-- "More than a year ago a decision was taken that if
Jerusalem came up for discussion we would leave the
government and the rabbi (Ovadia Yosef) said that as long as
there was no commitment not to discuss Jerusalem we could not
join the government. Jerusalem is not for sale."

-- "Back in July (2008) we said that if the issues of the
poorer sectors and child welfare benefits were not dealt with
seriously then we would support dissolution of the Knesset."

Yishai concluded that Shas had been consistent on these
principles, adding that "the moment these two principles were
not accepted (by Kadima),the Council of Sages under its
chairman Rabbi Ovadia Yosef conducted a telephone
consultation and took a decision that Shas will not enter the
government." (Note: Shas officials have demanded a minimum
of one billion NIS -- approximately, 265 million USD. End
Note.)

-------------- ---
... BUT A WINDOW REMAINS BEFORE LIVNI SEES PERES
-------------- ---


3. (C) FM Livni's Foreign Policy Advisor, Tal Becker, told
POL/C on October 23 that he was not overly optimistic about
her chances and complained that the Israeli public has not
made more of a fuss about Shas' financial demands, since a
public backlash would help Livni hold the line. The
political advisor to the Kadima Faction head, MK Yoel Hasson,
told poloff October 24 that Livni's predicament did not look
good at this juncture. He assessed that the probability of
early, general elections was greater than her stated option
of forming a narrow government without Shas. Nonetheless,
Hasson's aide underscored that "38 hours is a long time in
Israeli politics," and he observed that the Shas decision to
reject the Kadima bid today, October 24, meant that time
remained for the two parties to come back from the brink and
resume negotiations on the morning of October 26 (after
Shabbat). Should the parties make headway, President Peres
always has the option to postpone meeting Livni and making an
appeal for Kadima and Shas party leaders to take another stab
at forming a coalition for the sake of political stability in
Israel. At that point, Livni would still have a full week
left, according to Israeli law, to form a government.

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