THE AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH AVIGDOR LIEBERMAN:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002148

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAL IR SY RU IS
SUBJECT: THE AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH AVIGDOR LIEBERMAN:
LAND FOR PEACE IS A MISTAKE, ECONOMICS AND SECURITY ARE THE
KEY

Classified By: Ambassador James B. Cunningham, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) Summary. During a September 15 meeting at the
Knesset, Yisrael Beiteinu (YB) Party leader Avigdor Lieberman
described to the Ambassador his views on the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict and other regional issues, his
concern over deteriorating U.S.-Russian relations, and his
robust political ambitions for YB as "Israel's only classic
right-wing party." Speaking two days before the Kadima Party
primaries, Lieberman was dismissive of both Tzippi Livni and
Shaul Mofaz, and predicted early elections leading to a
right-wing Likud-YB coalition government. Lieberman observed
that Western governments cannot fight terrorist organizations
effectively, but should instead go after their state
sponsors, Iran and Syria. The Ambassador noted the heavy
U.S. investment in stabilizing the West Bank through training
security forces, economic development, and institution
building. Regarding Russia, the Ambassador told Lieberman
that the U.S. is trying to find a way to continue working
with Russia on Iran despite the new tension in our relations.
The Ambassador also commented that Syria may be the weak
link in Iran's regional network. End Summary.


2. (U) The Ambassador, accompanied by Pol Couns, called on
Yisrael Beiteinu Party leader and former Minister for
Strategic Threats Avigdor Lieberman September 15 in
Lieberman's Knesset office. Lieberman was joined by former
Ambassador to the U.S. Danny Ayalon, who has recently become
a senior Lieberman policy adviser. Lieberman stated at the
outset that YB is "Israel's only classic right-wing party"
since it combines tough advocacy of Israeli nationalism with
free market economics and separation between synagogue and
state. Noting that Israel has had eleven foreign ministers
and nine defense ministers in the past ten years, Lieberman
called for establishing a presidential political system in
Israel.

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict "Small Part"
of Region's Problems
--------------


3. (C) Turning to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,
Lieberman called it a "small part" of the region's problems.
The Arab world today is weak: the strongest regional powers,
Iran, Turkey, and Israel, are all non-Arab. President
Mubarak is in bad shape, and the Muslim Brotherhood is poised
to take power in Egypt when he dies. Ninety-seven percent of
the conflicts in the Middle East in the past two decades had
nothing to do with Israel, he said, citing the Iran-Iraq war,
the two U.S.-led interventions in the Gulf, the Yemeni civil
war, and the bloodletting in Algeria. Arabs leaders exploit
the Palestinian cause to "excite the crowds." They are happy
Israel exists to serve this function.


4. (C) Lieberman asserted that "the State Department" has an
incorrect understanding of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Land-for-peace is a "big mistake" since the conflict is not
about territory but rather about Israel's existence. The
Arabs rejected Israel before 1967 and before 1948. Settlers
and settlements are not the cause of the conflict and it will
not be resolved if they are removed from the West Bank.
Instead there is a double conflict between the Israeli and
the Palestinian nations and between radical Islam and Israel
as the "frontline state of the West." 9/11, the bombings in
London, Madrid, and Bali had nothing to do with Israel, nor
did Bin Ladin's call for establishing a new Caliphate.

Israeli-Palestinian Interaction
--------------


5. (C) Lieberman described Israel's relations with the
Palestinians as operating at three levels: security,
economics, and politics. The first two need to be solved
before taking on the political aspects. In response to the
Ambassador's question how he would solve the Palestinian
issue, Lieberman said he supports a territorial exchange in
which Israel would retain the large settlement blocs in the
West Bank and in return give the Palestinians heavily
Arab-populated areas such as the "little triangle" in the
Galilee. While security is Israel's top priority, Lieberman
said economic development is the top Palestinian concern.
Palestinians earn an average of $300 a month, while average
monthly wages in Israel are about $2,300. In addition,
Palestinians face fifty percent unemployment. This kind of
inequality generates resentment and hatred, and must be
addressed.


6. (C) The Ambassador responded that the U.S. is investing
heavily in assisting the Palestinians in three areas:
training the PA's security forces, where we are seeing good
results, economic development, and institution building,

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including work on law enforcement structures such as courts
and prisons. The Ambassador noted that if Gaza is removed
from the equation, the economy of the West Bank may be
growing by four to six percent annually. This shows there is
a way forward for the Palestinians. Lieberman admitted that
he had changed his mind about Salam Fayyad, whom he believes
can become a "real partner" for Israel if he can remain in
power for two to three years. Lieberman called Mahmoud Abbas
"old and tired" and added that he did not support the release
of Marwan Barghouti because he thought Barghouti would
undermine Fayyad. The Ambassador noted that some Palestinian
local politicians are focusing on economic development.
Lieberman said it would only take five to ten local leaders
in the West Bank to start changing the economic situation.
Lieberman said that "Hamas should be suffocated" in Gaza.
The real threat is Iran working through its "outposts" in
Gaza and Lebanon.

Iran, Russia and the Security Council
--------------


7. (C) Lieberman said he had no faith in the Security
Council's ability to pressure Iran to stop its nuclear
program. Tensions between the U.S. and Russia were
undermining the Security Council's effectiveness. The West
must determine its priorities, it cannot do everything at the
same time. Fanatic Muslims are "like the Nazis," Iran's
drive to develop nuclear weapons must be stopped. Kosovo and
Georgia are lesser issues and can wait, Lieberman said.
Russia is also worried about Iran, and the Russians feel that
the West is pushing them into supporting Chavez and
Ahmadinejad.


8. (C) The Ambassador agreed that relations with Russia are
difficult, the tensions have been building for years. He
assured Lieberman that the U.S. is talking to the Russians
and trying to find a way to continue to cooperate on Iran
despite the tense state of our relations. We do not knw if
this will work, however, and we are disappoited by the
results of years of effort in the Secrity Council. The
Ambassador stressed that Iranwill be a top priority for the
next U.S. Adminisration regardless of who wins our election.

Deaing with Syria
--------------


9. (C) Liebeman said Israel's greatest mistake in the
Lebano War had been not going after Syria. Syria mustunderstand it will pay a
great price for its suppot for
Hizballah, he said, adding that President Asad must know that
the price will affect him personally. The Ambassador said he
hoped it would be possible to change Syrian policy without
destroying Damascus. Lieberman commented that a modern
Western country such as Israel cannot fight a terrorist
organization effectively, it must instead go after the state
sponsors, Iran and Syria. In dealing with Syria, Lieberman
said they should only receive one warning before being dealt
a major blow. The Ambassador noted that Syria may be the
most vulnerable link in the Iranian regional network. It may
be difficult to get at Hamas and Hizballah, and it is hard to
influence Iran. But there may be ways to influence Syria.

Political Prognosis
--------------


10. (C) Asked what he thought would happen after the Kadima
Party primaries, Lieberman blasted Kadima as responsible for
the Gaza disengagement and the Second Lebanon War. Sharon
and Olmert could not deliver, Livni and Mofaz would fare no
better. Lieberman said he expected elections by early 2009
and hoped to see a coalition of Likud and YB, but it might
not work due to YB's differences with Likud over religion and
state issues such as conversion and civil marriage.
Lieberman explained that these are key issues for his
constituents, both the former Soviet immigrants and
native-born secular Israelis. Lieberman called Likud Party
leader Bibi Netanyahu "smart and a good speaker," but
Netanyahu would also have to make tough decisions if he
becomes prime minister.

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