TZIPI LIVNI SQUEAKS BY TO WIN KADIMA PRIMARY OVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002134

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR IS
SUBJECT: TZIPI LIVNI SQUEAKS BY TO WIN KADIMA PRIMARY OVER
MOFAZ; SHE HAS SEVEN WEEKS TO FORM A COALITION

Classified By: Political Counselor Marc J. Sievers. Reason 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: FM Livni eked out a very narrow victory over
Shaul Mofaz, Meir Sheetrit and Avi Dichter to win the Kadima
Party primaries by just 431 votes. Pollsters faced a glum
morning-after -- what some commentators have called the "Yom
Kippur of polls" after exit polls substantially overestimated
the extent of her victory. Her 43.1 percent win nevertheless
means that she will be able to claim the mantle of party
leader without a second round of elections. Once PM Olmert
officially submits his resignation to President Peres --
which he has pledged to do, perhaps as soon as September 21
-- the clock starts ticking away at the time Livni has to
form a new government. Within a week of the resignation of
the Prime Minister, the President must formally ask an MK --
traditionally the leader of the largest faction in the
Knesset -- to try to form a new government. Livni will have
28 days, which can be extended by another 14, to cobble
together a coalition. Some insiders anticipate that the
coalition-forming process may prove difficult for her, and if
she fails early elections will follow. End Summary.

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EXIT POLLS - WAY OFF ONCE AGAIN
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2. (U) Moments before the Kadima Party balloting closed at
2230 local on September 17, exit polls broadcast on all three
of Israel's main TV stations predicted a greater-than
ten-percent margin of victory for Livni over her closest
competitor, Shaul Mofaz. However, participation rates in the
primary hovered just over fifty percent of the 74,000 party
members eligible to vote, a factor that Mofaz supporters felt
augured in their favor. During the afternoon of the 17th,
Livni's camp requested an extension of voting hours until
2300 to accommodate a late rush of voters, and the party's
election committee comprised by offering a 30-minute
extension -- over the objections of Mofaz and Sheetrit.
Although pundits generally agreed with the direction of the
exit polls, the final official tally was not completed until
early on the morning of the 18th. Pro-Livni votes in Tel
Aviv helped her narrowly beat Mofaz, who, at one point early
in the morning of September 18 was ahead in the official
tally, according to Embassy political contacts.


3. (U) PM Olmert called Livni to congratulate her shortly
after the exit polls, but she did not claim victory until
after the party's elections committee chairman proclaimed the
formal results around sunrise September 18. In her speech,
she said, "All of the rivals were rivals for a moment. We
have new tasks and we'll set out on the road together."
Mofaz, whose advisors had reportedly urged him to contest the
results, conceded the race, and the rest of Israel's
political establishment soon followed with congratulations.
One of Mofaz' attorneys, Yehuda Weinstein, told Israel Radio
that Mofaz "felt that considerations of leadership and public
office took priority over the possibility of winning the
appeal." Defense Minister Barak was the last major player to
call Livni -- late on the 18th, according to press reports,
though some of the Labor Party's other leaders, such as MK
Ophir Pines-Paz, did so much earlier.

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SEVEN WEEKS OF SUSPENSE AHEAD
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4. (U) Many anticipate that Olmert will tender his
resignation to President Peres following the September 21
cabinet meeting. Should this timeframe play out, Peres has
seven days to ask Livni to try to form a government.
However, should Olmert tarry, President Peres may not be able
to do so before he flies to New York to address the UNGA on
September 24. In any event, Livni is already exploring
options for forming a coalition as soon as possible.
Parliamentary procedure allows her an initial 28-day period
to cobble together a coalition, but she may need to avail
herself of an additional 14 days' extension since the weeks
ahead include the period of the Jewish High Holidays during
which the Knesset is in recess and the GOI shuts down for
almost a month. The 42-day (combined) clock keeps ticking,
with no pause for the holidays. In the event that she forms
a viable coalition within this period, she must then obtain
the Knesset's vote of confidence -- by a simple majority.


5. (C) Israeli commentators are having a field day debating
Livni's chances to form a coalition. Her first focus has
been on rallying the many voices within the Kadima Party
behind her, and Mofaz' concession aids her efforts
considerably. Many observers concluded that she has already
offered him a plum promotion within the government: perhaps
the foreign ministry, and, almost certainly, the position
"acting PM" that catapulted Olmert to power and served

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Livni's political ambitions as well. Barak, who confided to
an embassy contact that he is concerned that the Kadima
reshuffle and effort to form a coalition without general
elections will be perceived by the broader public as
"illegitimate," is busy brooding about his options. Barak's
unofficial spokesperson, MK Shalom Simchon, has come out
publicly in favor of early elections instead of remaining in
the coalition, but other Labor leaders (MK's Ophir Pines-Paz,
Ami Ayalon) want the party to remain in the government. Shas
Party leader Eli Yishai, who met with Livni on the 18th to
offer congratulations, wants to milk the transition for every
shekel he can for his party's priorities: child allowances
and state-funding for ultra-orthodox educational systems.
The two pensioner parties (one currently in the coalition and
one in the opposition),as well as left-wing Meretz,
reportedly want to be included as well. Likud leaders
continue to reject joining a coalition before new elections.


6. (C) Vice Premier Haim Ramon told the Ambassador September
18 that the close vote gave Livni a weak mandate, and Ramon
predicted that she would not be able to form a coalition even
if she keeps Mofaz on board the Kadima train. Ramon forecast
early elections sometime in the next six months, and said
that Opposition leader Netanyahu had a good chance of winning
the elections as Livni would not have a strong record of
accomplishments during this timeframe. In the meantime,
Olmert remains the caretaker prime minister until Livni is
able to form a government -- or, failing that, until early
elections are held.

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