EXPERTS CONSIDER AL-QAIDA IN ISRAEL ASPIRATIONAL,

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 001761

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2018
TAGS: ASEC KWBG PREL PTER IS
SUBJECT: EXPERTS CONSIDER AL-QAIDA IN ISRAEL ASPIRATIONAL,
NOT OPERATIONAL

Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR PETER VROOMAN FOR REASON: 1.4
(b) and (d)


1. (U) Summary: In July, the Israel Security Agency (ISA)
announced the arrest of two separate groups with links to
Al-Qaida, marking the first time any citizen of Israel has
been accused of affiliation with the terrorist organization.
On 23 July, members of the security cabinet met in closed
session to discuss Al-Qaida's threat to Israel. During a
symposium on Al-Qaida at the Institute for National Security
Studies (INSS),also on 23 July, experts said that Al-Qaida
is trying to penetrate Israel, but is not yet operational.
One expert posited that because every country on Israel's
border is currently fighting Al-Qaida for its own reasons,
they are inadvertently defending Israel. End Summary.


2. (U) On 9 July, ISA announced the indictment of two
Bedouin residents of Rahat, Taher and Omar Abu Sukat.
According to the announcement, Taher provided information to
Al-Qaida about the location of strategic targets in Israel,
including IDF bases and Ben Gurion Airport. According to
ISA, Omar was extensively involved in closed Al-Qaida
internet forums, including developing and distributing online
training and promotional material. Both Taher and Omar are
registered members of the Islamic Movement. In a separate
incident, ISA and the police arrested six Arab youth, two of
them Israeli citizens, for starting a terror cell which hoped
to get Al-Qaida assistance to attack the helicopter of
Presdient Bush during his spring visit.


3. (U) Experts are concerned that Al-Qaida might gain
strength in Gaza. Dr. Daniel Byman, visiting from Georgetown
University, stated at the July 23 symposium that Al-Qaida's
future in Gaza will be determined by Hamas. If Hamas tries
to negotiate with Israel, Dr. Byman believes that Al-Qaida
will attempt to gain strength in Gaza and try to spoil any
agreement.


4. (U) Dr. Byman's belief that Gaza will be central to
Al-Qaida's strategy in Israel is shared by members of the
Israeli government and academia. Dr. Shaul Shai, Deputy Head
of the National Security Council, stated at the symposium
that if Al-Qaida operates from Gaza, it would not look much
different from Hamas and, thus, it would not affect Israel's
intelligence strategy.


5. (C) Amos Gilad, Political/Military Director for the
Ministry of Defense told a visiting American delegation that
Al-Qaida is trying to gain a foothold in Gaza. He stated
that Tony Blair cancelled his trip into Gaza due to the
Israeli assessment of an Al-Qaida threat. Gilad noted that
Hamas is arresting terrorists. In fact, Gilad argued that
Hamas has been much more successful than the Palestinian
Authority in combating terrorism and at containing the other
terror groups under the ceasefire. He cited the example of
one powerful family in Gaza that was looking to form an
Al-Qaida cell. Hamas reportedly told the family that if they
continued their pursuit, they would "cease to exist." That
family is no longer pursuing ties to Al-Qaida, according to
Gilad.


6. (U) Yoram Schweitzer, Director of the Program on
Terrorism and Low Intensity Conflict for INSS, believes that
Al-Qaida is looking for an opportunity to attack in Israel.
However, he believes that Israel's best defense against
Al-Qaida lies in Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, and Hamas-controlled
Gaza. Each is fighting against Al-Qaida for its own reasons,
and, in doing so, is helping to prevent Al-Qaida from
establishing itself in Israel.

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