Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08TELAVIV1334
2008-06-20 16:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

NEAR-TERM KNESSET DISSOLUTION UNLIKELY

Tags:  PGOV PINR IS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4559
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHTV #1334/01 1721647
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 201647Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7242
INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001334 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2013
TAGS: PGOV PINR IS
SUBJECT: NEAR-TERM KNESSET DISSOLUTION UNLIKELY

REF: TEL AVIV 1333

Classified By: Acting DCM William Weinstein. Reason 1.5 (B/D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001334

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2013
TAGS: PGOV PINR IS
SUBJECT: NEAR-TERM KNESSET DISSOLUTION UNLIKELY

REF: TEL AVIV 1333

Classified By: Acting DCM William Weinstein. Reason 1.5 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: The Knesset is scheduled to hold its first
vote on Likud MK Silvan Shalom's bill to dissolve the Knesset
on June 25. Labor and Shas party leaders have indicated that
their parties will vote in favor of this preliminary reading
of Shalom's bill, but most political observers think that
this vote will merely constitute a "warning shot" aimed at
pressuring PM Olmert and his Kadima Party to move ahead with
plans to organize a party primary rather than a sign that
general elections are in the immediate offing. This tactic
has already succeeded in securing a Kadima commitment to hold
a primary. Labor Party Chairman Ehud Barak told the
Ambassador June 15 he is in no hurry to force general
elections. While the Likud dissolution motion may win a
majority on the 25th, it will, in our view, remain stuck in
committee debate and wrangling at least until the
cross-examination of Morris Talansky on July 17. In the
meantime, Kadima ministers Livni and Mofaz are busy readying
themselves for a party primary fight. End Summary.

--------------
How a Bill becomes Law
--------------


2. (U) The June 25 vote will mark the first time that MK
Silvan Shalom has put his bill forward for a vote. If his
bill fails to pass in the preliminary or any subsequent
readings of the bill, another vote on dissolving the Knesset
cannot be held for six months. Likud is confident of the
support of 38 opposition votes (Likud -12, Yisrael Beiteinu
-11, National Religious Party - 9; United Torah Judaism - 6),
and the leaders of the Labor (19 seats) and Shas (12 seats)
parties have announced their intention to support the bill.
Several Kadima MK's are likely to break ranks with the Prime
Minister as well, though a potentially larger number of Labor
MK's have announced that they will not support Party Leader
Barak's call to vote for the resolution to dissolve the
Knesset at this time. The Arab parties in the opposition
have indicated that they will not vote to dissolve the
Knesset, a move that they fear would hasten the return of
Netanyahu to power. Both factions of the Pensioners party
will vote against dissolution, as new elections will not
return them to office, according to a party aide. In short,

the alignment is currently stacked against the coalition in
this impending vote, but Vice Premier and Kadima Party
maestro, Haim Ramon, has been busy in the Knesset trying to
shore it up.


3. (U) A bill such as Shalom's must pass the preliminary
reading and an additional three "official" readings before it
becomes law. If it passes (by simple majority of members
present) on the preliminary reading, it will be referred to
the Law Committee for further review. Given the sensitivity
of a dissolution motion, the House Committee may also elect
to review the bill as well. The Kadima heads of both
committees have already indicated their interest in the bill,
which could lead to extended wrangling before coming out of
committee. By tradition, the second and third official
readings of a private member's bill are held in the same
plenary session, although two distinct votes are still
required (one by simple majority of members present, and the
final reading by an absolute majority of 61 votes).
--------------
Talansky II, then Kadima Primaries
--------------


4. (C) Most observers anticipate that Olmert will specify a
Kadima primary date only after his lawyers cross-examine
Talansky on July 17, at which point he will be able to judge
whether he enjoys sufficient political and public viability
to retain control of Kadima. FM Tzipi Livni, who is
currently significantly more popular than the PM and enjoys
positive polling on par with Opposition Leader Binyamin
Netanyahu, is reportedly eager for early primaries, but
Mofaz, her strongest competitor for Kadima leadership, is
busy recruiting party members and appears to be in no hurry
to oust Olmert (reftel). A mid-June Yediot Ahronoth poll of
Kadima supporters indicates that Livni would command 39
percent of the party vote, a figure that is slightly less
than her polling among the broader Israeli public. Mofaz,
however, does significantly better within the party, where he
is polled as capturing 25 percent (versus only 16 percent
among the general public). Knesset contacts attribute
Mofaz's party strength to his efforts to cultivate local
contacts, particularly in the Arab sector, though Mofaz told
the Ambassador on June 19 that it was very hard to recruit
new supporters for Kadima (while Olmert remains as the party
leader).


TEL AVIV 00001334 002 OF 002



5. (C) A Livni confidante told A/DCM June 19 that Livni's
best opportunity to win the Kadima primary is on her strong
reputation as a "clean" leader. However, the Kadima party
machine and decision-making still remains in the hands of
Olmert's people (namely Vice Premier Ramon and former Finance
Minister Avraham Hirschson). And Olmert has indicated he
intends to run in the primaries -- a move that most observers
believe is aimed to keep him politically viable through the
July 17 cross-examination. Indeed, should Olmert decide to
remain in the race he could still win -- no matter how poor
his polling, according to one Kadima source.

--------------
Barak Not Eager for Elections Now
--------------


6. (C) Labor Party MK's and staff told A/PolCouns that
Barak's preferred outcome of the current political storm is
to secure a change in government without general elections.
The Acting Kadima Faction chairman, MK Yoel Hasson, told
A/PolCouns that while he did not rule out a change in
leadership, he was not betting on general elections in the
fall of 2008. If Livni were to take over, she would remain
in power for the remainder of the current term of the Knesset
(2010) -- enough time for her bubble (of popularity) to
burst, as one Labor parliamentary aide put it. Another Labor
source speculated that if Mofaz took the helm, this would
allow Barak to mount a more effective center-left challenge
to a Likud-leaning Kadima bloc in subsequent elections. If
Olmert still holds the reins of the Kadima party after the
summer Knesset session, then Barak will face a difficult
choice: to renege once again on his call for change or to
plunge precipitously to general elections he is unlikely to
win.

--------------
Legal Speed?
--------------


7. (C) On the legal track, Dubi Weissglas told the
Ambassador June 16 that even though Attorney General Meni
Mazuz has instructed investigators to move head expeditiously
on the Talansky investigation, the legal process, which could
lead to an indictment, will take at least three-to-five
months and will thus be unlikely to outpace political
developments.

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