Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08TELAVIV1105
2008-05-23 14:24:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:
ISRAELI COMMENTS ON SYRIAN PEACE TALKS
how-toVZCZCXRO2089 OO RUEHROV DE RUEHTV #1105/01 1441424 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 231424Z MAY 08 FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6825 INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 4684 RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL PRIORITY 0165 RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001105
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2018
TAGS: PREL TU SY IS
SUBJECT: ISRAELI COMMENTS ON SYRIAN PEACE TALKS
REF: DAMASCUS 359
Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones, reason 1.4 (b) and (d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001105
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2018
TAGS: PREL TU SY IS
SUBJECT: ISRAELI COMMENTS ON SYRIAN PEACE TALKS
REF: DAMASCUS 359
Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones, reason 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (C) SUMMARY: On May 21, PM Olmert's office announced that
Israel is holding serious indirect talks with Syria over a
comprehensive peace agreement. Embassy Tel Aviv has reported
the existence of this channel since the summer of 2007, but
PM Olmert first announced indirect contacts with Syria
through Turkey during Passover interviews in April. The
talks will follow the Madrid Framework, be led by Yoram
Turbowicz, Olmert's Chief of Staff, and will be indirect,
through Turkish mediation. Senior MFA officials have told us
that Olmert only informed Foreign Minister Livni two hours
before his office released its public announcement.
Opposition members responded to the announcement by accusing
Olmert of attempting to distract the Israeli public from his
own legal problems, but several journalists noted that that
these talks began in February 2007, over a year before the
investigation began. END SUMMARY.
--------------
Politics of Peace
--------------
2. (U) An overnight poll released May 22 found a majority of
Israelis believe the timing of the announcement was intended
to distract from the latest corruption investigation against
Olmert. Opposition Knesset members from Likud and the
National Union-National Religious Party (NU-NRP) accused
Olmert of trying to sell the Golan to save himself. Within
the coalition, MK Danny Yatom of Labor also questioned the
Prime Minister's motives. Shas threatened to quit the
coalition if the government became serious about
relinquishing the Golan Heights "to the axis of evil."
Olmert, for his part, has denied Syrian claims that he
committed himself to a withdrawal from the Golan, preferring
to stick to the locution that he knows what Syria wants, and
the Syrians know what Israel wants.
3. (U) Meanwhile some recent polls have found that between
52% and 70% of Israelis are against conceding the Golan
Heights in exchange for peace. MK Yossi Beilin told
reporters that the polling numbers do not mean much, as he
believes that Israelis will accept returning the Golan
Heights when they realize peace with Syria would mean they
could "drive to Paris."
--------------
Is Peace Possible? Separating Syria from Iran
--------------
4. (U) On May 21, FM Livni told visiting French FM Kouchner
that a definitive break with Iran and all terror
organizations is a pre-requisite for peace with Syria. MoD
Barak said that he believes that "bringing Syria out of the
circle of hostilities is an important step but we need to
remain realistic...a peace agreement is still a long way
off." PM Olmert stated on May 21 that "negotiations will not
be easy, it will not be simple and it is possible that it
will take a long time and may eventually involve difficult
concessions. At the same time, after weighing all the
relevant data and hearing the opinions of all Israel's
security and intelligence bodies, I reached the conclusion
that the chances in this case outweighed the risks, and with
this hope, today we embark on this path." Olmert also noted
that former Prime Ministers Rabin, Netanyahu and Barak all
"invested efforts in this channel and were even prepared to
make painful and far-reaching concessions to achieve peace
with Syria."
5. (C) The former deputy National Security Advisor and now
MFA's new Director of Policy Planning, Eran Etzion, told
PolCouns May 22 that former National Security Advisor Ilan
Mizrachi deserves much of the credit for convincing Olmert to
move forward with the Syrian track as a way to drive a wedge
between Damascus and Tehran. Etzion said, however, that he
doubted the Olmert government would last long enough to see
either these or the Palestinian negotiations to their
conclusion given the seriousness of Olmert's political
problems.
6. (C) The head of MFA's Research Department (INR
A/S-equivalent) Nimrod Barkan confirmed to PolCouns May 22
reports that Olmert had only informed Foreign Minister Livni
two hours before the public announcement. According to
Barkan, Livni was upset that she had been kept out of the
loop, and also concerned about a potential negative impact on
the Palestinian track. Barkan noted that Barak and the IDF
strongly support the decision to open negotiations with
TEL AVIV 00001105 002 OF 002
Syria. Bashar Al-Asad, in his view, remains motivated by a
desire to resume normal relations with the United States and
may condition shifting the negotiations from proximity talks
to direct negotiations -- normally a key Israeli demand -- on
the U.S. replacing Turkey's role after the next
administration takes office. Barkan shared Etzion's
skepticism that the Olmert government would be able to see
these talks through to their conclusion, but he still
stressed that merely the announcement of peace negotiations
with Syria would constrain Syria's negative behavior in
Lebanon and keep the Iranians off balance.
7. (U) Itamar Rabinovich, who headed Syrian negotiations for
PM Rabin, summed up the major obstacles in an editorial for
Ma'ariv. According to Rabinovich, the main challenges are
lack of U.S. participation, Olmert's political crisis, and
the psychological barrier of changing Lake Kinneret (Sea of
Galilee) from an exclusively Israeli preserve to an
international body of water. Rabinovich also writes that
Syrian President Asad lacks the power to convince his people
to accept normalization with Israel, and that Asad does not
have the strength to break with Iran.
8. (U) In a commentary in Ma'ariv, Amir Rappaport writes
that IDF Chief of General Staff Gabi Ashkenazi and Israeli
Defense Intelligence (IDI) director Amos Yadlin were
skeptical but supported the talks, while Mossad Director Meir
Dagan had, until recently, counseled against them. Rappaport
noted a split between Yadlin and his deputy, Yossi Baidatz,
over whether the talks would succeed.
9. (C) Senior IDF officials, including the Ground Forces
Commander, have told DAO officers that "the road to solving
Lebanon, Hizballah, and disrupting the Iran chain of linkages
is through Damascus." Several months ago, Yadlin told PolOff
that he supported talks despite the fact that he does not
believe they will succeed in separating Syria from Iran, but
admitted that his Deputy, Yossi Baidatz disagreed and was
convinced Syria would abandon Iran for reconciliation with
the West. He also noted that the last time there were talks
with Syria, in 2000, Iran was a relatively minor
consideration and peace with Syria would reduce the threat
from Hizballah. He now believes that Iran, not Syria,
controls Hizballah, so peace with Syria does not necessarily
mean a peaceful northern border.
--------------
Structure of the Talks
--------------
10. (C) According to press reports, Olmert's Chief of Staff,
Yoram Turbowicz, and his chief foreign policy advisor, Shalom
Tourgeman, will regularly, but indirectly, meet with Syrian
officials in Turkey through a Turkish mediator. The PMO's
press announcement of May 21 (published simultaneously in
Jerusalem, Damascus and Ankara) stated that the two sides
"decided to pursue the dialogue between them in a serious and
continuous way, in order to achieve the goal of a
comprehensive peace in accordance with the (1991) Madrid
Conference terms of reference for peace." The Madrid
framework calls for establishing the border, setting a
schedule for Israeli withdrawal from the Golan, defining
security arrangements, and normalizing relations. Some press
reports say water rights will also be on the agenda. Even
before the announcement, veterans of past negotiations with
Syria have told us they have been busy putting together a
complete file on past negotiations and commitments, which
they have quietly shared with the Prime Minister's Office and
MOD Barak in order to help them prepare for substantive
negotiations.
11. (U) Yedioth Ahronoth political analyst Shimon Schiffer
wrote that sources within the Prime Minister's office told
him the Syrians have insisted on indirect talks until the
U.S. is involved. He also noted that there is little chance
of Israel moving past procedural discussion to real substance
until the two sides are talking face-to-face.
********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv
You can also access this site through the State Department's
Classified SIPRNET website.
********************************************* ********************
JONES
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2018
TAGS: PREL TU SY IS
SUBJECT: ISRAELI COMMENTS ON SYRIAN PEACE TALKS
REF: DAMASCUS 359
Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones, reason 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (C) SUMMARY: On May 21, PM Olmert's office announced that
Israel is holding serious indirect talks with Syria over a
comprehensive peace agreement. Embassy Tel Aviv has reported
the existence of this channel since the summer of 2007, but
PM Olmert first announced indirect contacts with Syria
through Turkey during Passover interviews in April. The
talks will follow the Madrid Framework, be led by Yoram
Turbowicz, Olmert's Chief of Staff, and will be indirect,
through Turkish mediation. Senior MFA officials have told us
that Olmert only informed Foreign Minister Livni two hours
before his office released its public announcement.
Opposition members responded to the announcement by accusing
Olmert of attempting to distract the Israeli public from his
own legal problems, but several journalists noted that that
these talks began in February 2007, over a year before the
investigation began. END SUMMARY.
--------------
Politics of Peace
--------------
2. (U) An overnight poll released May 22 found a majority of
Israelis believe the timing of the announcement was intended
to distract from the latest corruption investigation against
Olmert. Opposition Knesset members from Likud and the
National Union-National Religious Party (NU-NRP) accused
Olmert of trying to sell the Golan to save himself. Within
the coalition, MK Danny Yatom of Labor also questioned the
Prime Minister's motives. Shas threatened to quit the
coalition if the government became serious about
relinquishing the Golan Heights "to the axis of evil."
Olmert, for his part, has denied Syrian claims that he
committed himself to a withdrawal from the Golan, preferring
to stick to the locution that he knows what Syria wants, and
the Syrians know what Israel wants.
3. (U) Meanwhile some recent polls have found that between
52% and 70% of Israelis are against conceding the Golan
Heights in exchange for peace. MK Yossi Beilin told
reporters that the polling numbers do not mean much, as he
believes that Israelis will accept returning the Golan
Heights when they realize peace with Syria would mean they
could "drive to Paris."
--------------
Is Peace Possible? Separating Syria from Iran
--------------
4. (U) On May 21, FM Livni told visiting French FM Kouchner
that a definitive break with Iran and all terror
organizations is a pre-requisite for peace with Syria. MoD
Barak said that he believes that "bringing Syria out of the
circle of hostilities is an important step but we need to
remain realistic...a peace agreement is still a long way
off." PM Olmert stated on May 21 that "negotiations will not
be easy, it will not be simple and it is possible that it
will take a long time and may eventually involve difficult
concessions. At the same time, after weighing all the
relevant data and hearing the opinions of all Israel's
security and intelligence bodies, I reached the conclusion
that the chances in this case outweighed the risks, and with
this hope, today we embark on this path." Olmert also noted
that former Prime Ministers Rabin, Netanyahu and Barak all
"invested efforts in this channel and were even prepared to
make painful and far-reaching concessions to achieve peace
with Syria."
5. (C) The former deputy National Security Advisor and now
MFA's new Director of Policy Planning, Eran Etzion, told
PolCouns May 22 that former National Security Advisor Ilan
Mizrachi deserves much of the credit for convincing Olmert to
move forward with the Syrian track as a way to drive a wedge
between Damascus and Tehran. Etzion said, however, that he
doubted the Olmert government would last long enough to see
either these or the Palestinian negotiations to their
conclusion given the seriousness of Olmert's political
problems.
6. (C) The head of MFA's Research Department (INR
A/S-equivalent) Nimrod Barkan confirmed to PolCouns May 22
reports that Olmert had only informed Foreign Minister Livni
two hours before the public announcement. According to
Barkan, Livni was upset that she had been kept out of the
loop, and also concerned about a potential negative impact on
the Palestinian track. Barkan noted that Barak and the IDF
strongly support the decision to open negotiations with
TEL AVIV 00001105 002 OF 002
Syria. Bashar Al-Asad, in his view, remains motivated by a
desire to resume normal relations with the United States and
may condition shifting the negotiations from proximity talks
to direct negotiations -- normally a key Israeli demand -- on
the U.S. replacing Turkey's role after the next
administration takes office. Barkan shared Etzion's
skepticism that the Olmert government would be able to see
these talks through to their conclusion, but he still
stressed that merely the announcement of peace negotiations
with Syria would constrain Syria's negative behavior in
Lebanon and keep the Iranians off balance.
7. (U) Itamar Rabinovich, who headed Syrian negotiations for
PM Rabin, summed up the major obstacles in an editorial for
Ma'ariv. According to Rabinovich, the main challenges are
lack of U.S. participation, Olmert's political crisis, and
the psychological barrier of changing Lake Kinneret (Sea of
Galilee) from an exclusively Israeli preserve to an
international body of water. Rabinovich also writes that
Syrian President Asad lacks the power to convince his people
to accept normalization with Israel, and that Asad does not
have the strength to break with Iran.
8. (U) In a commentary in Ma'ariv, Amir Rappaport writes
that IDF Chief of General Staff Gabi Ashkenazi and Israeli
Defense Intelligence (IDI) director Amos Yadlin were
skeptical but supported the talks, while Mossad Director Meir
Dagan had, until recently, counseled against them. Rappaport
noted a split between Yadlin and his deputy, Yossi Baidatz,
over whether the talks would succeed.
9. (C) Senior IDF officials, including the Ground Forces
Commander, have told DAO officers that "the road to solving
Lebanon, Hizballah, and disrupting the Iran chain of linkages
is through Damascus." Several months ago, Yadlin told PolOff
that he supported talks despite the fact that he does not
believe they will succeed in separating Syria from Iran, but
admitted that his Deputy, Yossi Baidatz disagreed and was
convinced Syria would abandon Iran for reconciliation with
the West. He also noted that the last time there were talks
with Syria, in 2000, Iran was a relatively minor
consideration and peace with Syria would reduce the threat
from Hizballah. He now believes that Iran, not Syria,
controls Hizballah, so peace with Syria does not necessarily
mean a peaceful northern border.
--------------
Structure of the Talks
--------------
10. (C) According to press reports, Olmert's Chief of Staff,
Yoram Turbowicz, and his chief foreign policy advisor, Shalom
Tourgeman, will regularly, but indirectly, meet with Syrian
officials in Turkey through a Turkish mediator. The PMO's
press announcement of May 21 (published simultaneously in
Jerusalem, Damascus and Ankara) stated that the two sides
"decided to pursue the dialogue between them in a serious and
continuous way, in order to achieve the goal of a
comprehensive peace in accordance with the (1991) Madrid
Conference terms of reference for peace." The Madrid
framework calls for establishing the border, setting a
schedule for Israeli withdrawal from the Golan, defining
security arrangements, and normalizing relations. Some press
reports say water rights will also be on the agenda. Even
before the announcement, veterans of past negotiations with
Syria have told us they have been busy putting together a
complete file on past negotiations and commitments, which
they have quietly shared with the Prime Minister's Office and
MOD Barak in order to help them prepare for substantive
negotiations.
11. (U) Yedioth Ahronoth political analyst Shimon Schiffer
wrote that sources within the Prime Minister's office told
him the Syrians have insisted on indirect talks until the
U.S. is involved. He also noted that there is little chance
of Israel moving past procedural discussion to real substance
until the two sides are talking face-to-face.
********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv
You can also access this site through the State Department's
Classified SIPRNET website.
********************************************* ********************
JONES