Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08TEGUCIGALPA1073
2008-12-01 02:38:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Cable title:  

PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF HONDURAN PRIMARIES: LOBO

Tags:  KDEM PGOV SOCI EFIN EAID HO 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 001073 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2018
TAGS: KDEM PGOV SOCI EFIN EAID HO
SUBJECT: PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF HONDURAN PRIMARIES: LOBO
FOR THE NATIONAL PARTY AND SANTOS/VILLEDA FOR THE LIBERAL
PARTY

REF: TEGUCIGALPA 1072

Classified By: Ambassador Hugo Llorens, Reasons 1.4 (b & d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 001073

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2018
TAGS: KDEM PGOV SOCI EFIN EAID HO
SUBJECT: PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF HONDURAN PRIMARIES: LOBO
FOR THE NATIONAL PARTY AND SANTOS/VILLEDA FOR THE LIBERAL
PARTY

REF: TEGUCIGALPA 1072

Classified By: Ambassador Hugo Llorens, Reasons 1.4 (b & d)


1. (C) Summary. Honduran voters from the two main parties
(National and Liberal) went to the polls November 30 to elect
the candidates from their respective parties. The election
process was smoothly run, with all observers and the press
describing them as a clear success. At this point, they
appear to have been the cleanest primaries in Honduran
history. Preliminary results, show that Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo
won in a landslide in the National Party election and Vice
President Elvin Santos' stand-in Mauricio Villeda won a
decisive victory over President of the Congress Roberto
Micheletti in the Liberal Party election. The Embassy was
thoroughly involved in supporting the democratic process
through technical support throughout the year to the National
Register of Persons (which issues the voter credentials) and
the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). The Embassy also
provided ten of the 52 international observers under the
auspices of the Organization of American States (OAS),which
were sent to three departments and visited a total of over 50
polling stations (see reftel). Please see action request para

10. End Summary.


2. (U) With about eight percent of precincts reporting,
(including precincts in the biggest population centers) Lobo
had an overwhelming lead, taking 78 percent of votes
reported. Mario Canahuati came in a very distant second with
20 percent of the vote. In the Liberal Party, Santos and his
stand-in Villeda had a commanding lead with 57 percent of the
vote, as compared to Micheletti with 23 and Eduardo Maldonado
with 18. As of 8:30 p.m. local time, Canahuati had given a
graceful concession speech, but Micheletti had not yet spoken
publicly. Results are coming in very quickly thanks to the
rapid transmission of election results (TREP) being used by
the Honduran Elections Tribunal, which involves "real time"
cell phone calls from the individual elections tables to the
Tribunal with the complete results for the presidential

races. Official results for all races will take some days to
report.


3. (C) While Micheletti had not yet conceded, we understand
that he admitted to intimates that he had lost the campaign.


4. (U) OAS and local observers are reporting that these
elections went extremely well on a technical level. At this
point, the elections appear to have been the most transparent
in Honduran history. The Embassy was thoroughly involved in
supporting the democratic process through technical support
throughout the year to the National Register of Persons
(which issues the voter credentials) and the Supreme
Electoral Tribunal (TSE). The rules established by the
Elections Tribunal in conjunction with the parties made for a
transparent process and included the first-time use of
transparent ballot boxes, the TREP quick transmission
mechanism, voting at the tables that was open to the public,
and election registration lists at the tables that had the
photograph of the individual voters to match with their
national ID cards. Credit is also due to the Honduran
military, which plays a key role in this process, guarding
election material, delivering it to the polling centers,
providing security at the polls, and then returning official
results and all ballots to the TSE.


5. (SBU) This does not mean there were no hiccups. For
example, while the over 5,000 Honduran polling stations
(mostly located in schools) were to have opened at 7:00 a.m.,
our review of over 50 individual stations showed that all
opened late, some up to two hours late. This probably
explains the TSE's afternoon decision to extend closing time
by an hour. Most of our observers reported that voting was
extremely light in the morning, but that it picked up
substantially in the late afternoon. There were also some

TEGUCIGALP 00001073 002 OF 002


accusations of irregularities at individual polling stations.


6. (U) The Ambassador, DCM, and USAID Director spent the day
touring electoral sites and meeting with observer groups, as
well as receiving a briefing from the Honduran military on
its role in delivering and protecting election material. The
day started with the military briefing at the Estado Mayor,
also attended by the French, German, and Italian ambassadors.
Later in the day, OAS Observer Delegation Chief Raul Alconada
reported that the election process was going extremely well,
He agreed that the Honduran system was impressive and that
Honduras, only one of two countries in Latin America that has
national primaries ( the other being Uruguay),may have
lessons to teach many countries in the region. The Embassy
team also visited four polling sites, talking with poll
workers and votes. The press interviewed the Ambassador a
number of times, including a joint interview with the
European ambassadors at the Estado Mayor. The Ambassador
noted that the Honduran people had the final word and were
the true winners in this electoral process.


7. (U) The Embassy contributed 10 of the OAS' 52 observers
who fanned out around the country to make spot checks at a
number of polling sites. While only covering a small number
of the total sites, the OAS presence helped reassure
Hondurans nervous about past elections' irregularities.


8. Comment: (C) In contrast to Nicaragua, the Honduran
primary campaigns were great exercises in democracy. All of
the ten candidates represented a wide spectrum of ideological
views from the left to the right. There was a high degree of
debate and unimpeded campaigning across the country. The
process itself appears to have been a model.


9. (C) Lobo's lead was expected, but the strength shown by
the Santos/Villeda team is surprising. Pundits believed that
Santos/Villeda was ahead, but had predicted a closer race.
Lobo, who ran a strong law and order campaign, is expected to
easily unify the party and comes out of the primaries as the
favorite for the general elections scheduled for November

2009. A telling indicator of Pepe's strength is that the
National Party easily outpolled the Liberal Party. Santos
now has the popular mandate, but will need to bring the
Liberal Party together by negotiating the support of both
Zelaya and Micheletti. His huge victory will certainly
bolster, but not guarantee, his constitutional claim with the
Supreme Court that he be allowed to run (reftel and
previous). If Elvin is not allowed to run, Mauricio, the son
of great Liberal Party caudillo and President Villeda
Morales, will make a strong candidate in his own right. End
Comment.


10. Action request: Assuming that current trends are correct
and that reporting on Monday shows the primaries to have been
clean and have produced clear winners, the Embassy recommends
that the Department issue a press statement praising the
statement. The Embassy will email a proposed draft to
WHA/CEN tomorrow.
LLORENS