USUPASHVILI: UNITED OPPOSITION BROKEN, NO EASY END

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000473

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM GG
SUBJECT: USUPASHVILI: UNITED OPPOSITION BROKEN, NO EASY END
TO HUNGER STRIKE

REF: TBILISI 444

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Mark X. Perry for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary: On March 19, Republican Party Chairman David
Usupashvili told Charge that the leadership of the United
National Council of Opposition (UNC) and the New Rightists
(NR) parties, weakened by their ongoing hunger strike
(reftel),is nearly broken. According to Usupashvili, both
the UNC and NR, and the ruling United National Movement
(UNM),are looking for a way out of the current situation.
He said that negotiations have been taking place. However,
Usupashvili says that neither side wants to yield first. The
opposition Christian Democrats (CDM) and Republicans each
proposed separate compromises to break the impasse on March

18. Usupashvili briefed Charge on both plans and the
problems with the CDM initiative. Usupashvili said
Parliamentary Speaker Nino Burjanadze agreed his proposal had
merit. Although Burjanadze said she would present it to the
UNM's election team, Usupashvili was not optimistic that the
government will agree to his proposal. Regardless of which
electoral system exists on election day, Usupashvili said
that his party will participate. End summary.

--------------
Hunger Strike Takes Toll on UNC, NR
--------------


2. (C) On March 19, Usupashvili told Charge that the UNC and
NR leaders, including former presidential candidates MP Levan
Gachechiladze and MP David Gamkrelidze, are extremely
weakened by their ongoing hunger strike. Usupashvili said he
met with them earlier March 19, and both leaders are nearly
incapable of physically or mentally making decisions.
Usupashvili said that both the UNC and NR, and the ruling
United National Movement (UNM),are looking for a way out of
the current crisis, now entering its tenth day. However,
neither side wants to appear to have given in.


3. (C) Comment: This concurs with a brief exchange Poloff had
with UNM insider MP Giga Bokeria on March 18. Bokeria said
the UNM had no solution to the crisis which would allow the
UNC to end the hunger strike in any dignified way. End
comment.

--------------
Christian Democrats Leak Proposal?
--------------


4. (C) Usupashvili said that the UNC and NR were secretly
negotiating with Burjanadze via Industrialist MP Zurab
Tkemeladze. Usupashvili said a handwritten proposal was
drafted that would add 35 party list seats, allow opposition
parties to hold secretary positions on the district election
commissions, resolve the demand for a new Central Election
Commission Chair, and settle 31 May as the election date.


5. (C) According to Usupashvili, on March 18 the CDM (led by
former MP and Imedi TV anchor, Giorgi Targamadze) leaked this
proposal to increase the number of party-list MPs. The CDM,
which was not party to the talks, subsequently announced the
proposal as their party's solution to the crisis.
Saakashvili responded to this proposal with a statement from
New York that the government is willing to look at it,
provided all the opposition parties are in agreement.

--------------
Republicans Propose Alternative
--------------


6. (C) Usupashvili said the Republicans had to respond,
because the proposal to increase the number of total seats in
Parliament beyond 150 is a direct violation of the 2004
referendum. Usupashvili said no time remains to again amend
the constitution, which requires a one-month waiting period
prior to being discussed in Parliament. Finally, Usupashvili
said the current 75 party-list, 75 single-mandate
distribution also conflicts with the constitution, because
the constitutionally-required seats for South Ossetia and
Abkhazia are not accounted for in the system.


7. (C) Consequently, Usupashvili proposed a separate
compromise to Burjanadze on March 18. Usupashvili's
suggestion is to keep the 75 party-list seats, and then have
the 75 majoritarian seats elected in multi-mandate districts
- rather than single-mandates. Such a system would not
require amending the constitution and the multi-mandate
districts could include the separatist areas.


TBILISI 00000473 002 OF 002



8. (C) Usupashvili said that Burjanadze agreed his plan
seemed plausible and held merit. She said she would present
the proposal to the UNM's election team (which Usupashvili
said includes Minister of Internal Affairs Vano Merabishvili
and former Prosecutor General, and current Head of
Presidential Administration, Zurab Adeishvili) but she
expressed doubt that the UNM leadership would go for it.
Usupashvili was also not optimistic that the government will
agree to his proposal. He said the UNC is so worn down that
it is unlikely they will support it either, even though it
would better serve the opposition's chances in the election.


9. (C) Usupashvili said if nothing changes and the election
is held under the current system, his party would participate
in the election. In this case, he would try to make one
substantial change to the single-mandate seats: increase the
first-round threshold to 40 percent. (Note: Currently, the
seat goes to the candidate with the highest percentage of
votes after they surpass 30 percent. If no candidate
surpasses 30 percent in the first round, then the top two
hold a run-off within two weeks. End note.) Usupashvili
said a candidate could win the seat in the first round
without 65 percent of the district's support, under the
current threshold. Usupashvili said Burjanadze thought she
could get approval for 35 percent, but not 40. Usupashvili
said that if the UNC agrees to the CDM proposal, or the
current systems remains, the Republicans plan to participate
in the upcoming election.

--------------
Comment
--------------


10. (C) Charge told Usupashvili that the Embassy will
continue to advise the government that they are responsible
for strengthening democracy in Georgia and that President
Saakashvili is hearing the same message in Washington.
Still, it is important for the opposition to try to find a
way out of this situation, where disputes can be resolved in
Parliament rather than on the street. Charge thanked
Usupashvili for his offer to assist on Georgia's
consideration for MAP in NATO, and told him that he would ask
Washington if a joint statement by opposition parties
supportive of MAP would be helpful now.
PERRY