IRI NATIONAL VOTER SURVEY: NEW PUBLIC OPTIMISM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000437

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM GG
SUBJECT: IRI NATIONAL VOTER SURVEY: NEW PUBLIC OPTIMISM

REF: 07 TBILISI 2423

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Mark X. Perry for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary: The latest USAID-funded International
Republican Institute (IRI) poll, based on 1,500 surveys
conducted from February 19-27, shows more optimism about the
future than was seen in September 2007 (reftel). More people
said the country is going in the right direction than in
September. Likewise, satisfaction with the development of
democracy is up, and more people's economic situations
improved over the previous two months. Petty corruption
remains very low, and confidence in the patrol police remains
high. Trust in the courts is still low at 27 percent,
although this is five points higher than September. When
people are asked what should be the priority of the
government, both regaining the separatist regions and
creating jobs top the list. The ruling National Movement
(UNM) is seen as the most capable political party in
addressing people's problems. However, confidence in most
political parties also rose. The poll indicates as many as
five political parties could have enough support to be
elected to Parliament in the May election. Russia remains
the main threat in people's eyes, and the loss of the
separatist regions and war are the biggest fears. 92 percent
of Georgians would not trade Abkhazia for NATO membership.
Electricity and roads are still seen as the government's
biggest achievements, though roads and water follow
unemployment as the biggest challenges in the regions. IRI
said the poll indicates that approximately 50-60 percent of
the population currently supports the current government
regarding the coming parliamentary election. It also
indicated that businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili is the most
popular public figure, closely followed by President
Saakashvili and multiple opposition leaders. Overall, the
results are a welcome sign following the turbulent political
scene of the past six months. End Summary.


2. (U) The International Republican Institute (IRI),in
conjunction with The Gallup Organization, conducted a
USAID-funded poll across Georgia from February 19-27, 2008.
1500 adults (age 18 ) were randomly interviewed, and the poll
contains a margin of error of three percent or less.

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Optimism Increases
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3. (SBU) The poll shows more optimism (73 percent) about the
future than was seen in the September 2007 poll results (59
percent) -- close to the levels of February 2007. 41 percent
said the country is going in the right direction (compared to
36 percent last fall and 48 percent in February 2007).
Likewise, 45 percent of people are satisfied with the way
democracy is developing in the country (versus 38 percent in
September). 24 percent of people said the economic situation
improved over the past two months (compared to 18 percent in
September). 48 percent reported that their households'
financial situation stayed the same over the last two months.
11 percent said it improved (versus 8 percent in September).


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Rule of Law Holds Steady
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4. (SBU) People reported that petty corruption remains very
low. 95 percent said they had not paid a bribe for any
service in the previous six months. Confidence in the patrol
police remains high as well (at 77 percent). Confidence in
the courts saw a five percent increase versus September,
although it is still low at 27 percent.

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It's Still the Economy,
and the Separatist Regions
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5. (SBU) Unemployment and economic conditions are still seen
as the most important issues facing the country, just ahead
of maintaining Georgia's territorial integrity. Despite
this, when people are asked what should be the first priority
of the government, regaining the separatist regions edges out
creating jobs by one percentage point. However, 93 percent
of Georgians believe the separatist regions must be restored
through peaceful means.

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UNM Stays Strong, Opposition Also Stronger
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6. (SBU) 72 percent of respondents said they had a medium to
high interest in politics, the highest level in four years.
The ruling National Movement (UNM) is seen as the most
capable political party in addressing most of the nation's
problems. However, confidence in most political parties has
risen as well. Five different political parties polled at or
above the five percent threshold to gain seats in Parliament.
Georgians still want a strong, forceful president, but one
who is close to the people. 44 percent of respondents
believe the May parliamentary elections will be free and fair.

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Threats and Fears
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7. (SBU) Russia remains Georgia's main threat in people's
eyes. Losing the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South
Ossetia and war are the biggest fears. 92 percent of
Georgians would not trade Abkhazia for NATO membership, and
53 percent said Georgia should leave the CIS. Georgians
still consider the USA one of their country's best friends
and strongest supporters, after Ukraine.

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Successes and Failures
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8. (SBU) Electricity and roads remain the government's
biggest achievements. However, roads and water follow
unemployment as the biggest challenges facing the government
in rural areas. The government crackdown on November 7, 2007
was widely seen as the government's biggest failure, followed
by inflation and unemployment. Tbilisi Mayor Ugulava's major
failures are seen as violations of private property rights
and not reflecting public opinion with his decisions.

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Political Leader Ratings
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9. (C) Businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili topped the list of
public figures with favorable ratings (70 percent). Second
was President Saakashvili (63) and then Tina Khidasheli,
Levan Berdzenishvili, and Speaker Nino Burjanadze (each at 62
percent). David Gamkrelidze, Koba Davitashvili, and Levan
Gachechiladze each had 60 percent favorable ratings.
Following these were David Usupashvili (59),PM Lado
Gurgenidze (58),Zviad Dzidziguri and Kakha Kukava (57 each),
and Irakli Okruashvili (56 percent favorable). Tbilisi Mayor
Gigi Ugulava (48),Salome Zourabichvili and Shalva
Natelashvili (45 each),Goga Khaindrava (42),Konstantine
Gamsakhurdia (40),and Zurab Tkemeladze (39 percent) came
next. Many government officials did not fare so well.
Favorable ratings for these persons were as follows: David
Bakradze (37),PG Eka Tkeshelashvili (28),David Kezerashvili
(23),Gia Nodia and Vano Merabishvili (22),and Eka
Sharashenidze (16).

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Elections Implications
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10. (C) IRI Acting Chief of Party, Dima Shashkin, said the
poll indicated that approximately 50-60 percent of the
population supports the current government regarding the
coming parliamentary election. Conversely, it also indicated
that 30-35 percent of the population does not like
Saakashvili.
PERRY