Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08TBILISI27
2008-01-08 16:18:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tbilisi
Cable title:  

SAAKASHVILI TO WIN GEORGIA'S PRESIDENTIAL

Tags:  KDEM PGOV PHUM GG 
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VZCZCXRO7053
OO RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSI #0027/01 0081618
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 081618Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY TBILISI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8577
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000027 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2018
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM GG
SUBJECT: SAAKASHVILI TO WIN GEORGIA'S PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION WITH NARROW MARGIN

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS:
1.4 (B) AND (D).


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000027

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2018
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM GG
SUBJECT: SAAKASHVILI TO WIN GEORGIA'S PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION WITH NARROW MARGIN

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS:
1.4 (B) AND (D).



1. (U) Summary: In what has been the most
competitive presidential race in Georgia's history,
former president Saakashvili appears set to win the
January 5 presidential elections with 52 percent of
the vote. His biggest challenger, United
Opposition's Levan Gachechiladze, is set to achieve
25 percent of the vote. The International
Observation Mission assessed that Georgia's
election was in essence consistent with most OSCE
and Council of Europe commitments and standards.
It noted also significant challenges which need to
be addressed urgently, including a blurring of the
distinction between state activities and the former
president's campaign, unbalanced media coverage
which tended to favor the ruling party's candidate,
a number of substantiated cases of voter
intimidation, and many significant procedural
shortcomings in the vote count. Although trusted
NGO Georgian Young Lawyers' Association (GYLA)
assessed the election as "valid," Gachechiladze and
supporters pressed their way into the Central
Election Commission (CEC) January 8 and verbally
attacked the Central Election Commissioner for
allegedly falsifying vote summary protocols. The
opposition claims that the summaries posted on the
CEC's website do not match those obtained by their
observers in the precincts. The opposition has
called for protests from January 13 until 18,
starting the day the CEC must by law certify the
election results. End summary.

VOTE COUNT AS OF 5:00 P.M. ON JANUARY 8
--------------


2. (U) As of 5:00 p.m. local time on January 8, the
CEC had counted 3070 out of more than 3400 Precinct
Election Commissions (PECs) which showed
Saakashvili with 52.1 percent of the vote and
Gachechiladze with 24.98 percent of the vote. By
Georgian law, the CEC must certify the result by
January 13.

IN ESSENCE CONSISTENT WITH MOST INTERNATIONAL
STANDARDS
-------------- --------------
---


3. (U) A report released on January 6 by the
International Election Observation Mission (IEOM),

which includes the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly
(PA),Office for Democratic Institutions and Human
Rights (ODIHR),the Parliamentary Assembly of
Europe (PACE),and the European Parliament (EP)
assessed that the election was in essence
consistent with most OSCE and Council of Europe
commitments and standards for democratic
elections. It noted also significant challenges
which need to be addressed urgently, including a
blurring of the distinction between state
activities and the former president's campaign,
unbalanced media coverage which tended to favor the
ruling party's candidate, a number of substantiated
cases of voter intimidation, and many significant
procedural shortcomings in the vote count.


4. (U) The report commended the work of the CEC,
which it said prepared the election in an overall
professional manner and undertook significant
efforts to improve the voters' list, but criticized
the CEC for acting along partisan lines. It also
noted positively the Government's formation of an
Inter-Agency Task Force, set up by the Acting
President, to address concerns. He noted that the
Acting President at times intervened personally in
response to the opposition's grievances. The
report noted the election as the first competitive
presidential election and that it took place in a
highly polarized political environment which was
not conducive to a constructive, issues-based
campaign.

GOVERNMENT CRITICS CALL THE ELECTION VALID
--------------


5. (U) Respected local NGO GYLA's Head Giorgi
Chkheidze said that GYLA, which fielded observers

TBILISI 00000027 002 OF 002


across the country, found widespread irregularities
and technical problems during the election but not
overt signs of fraud. He said the election should
be considered valid. (Note: GYLA in general is
known to be a government critic. End note.)
Similarly, Ombudsman Sozar Subari, who has in the
past been unabashedly critical of the government,
said that while the ruling party's abuse of
administrative resources puts the broader fairness
of the election into question, the actual voting
was credible. He told the media on January 6 that
the election was much better than Georgians are
used to.

OPPOSITION CLAIMS FRAUD, CALLS FOR PROTESTS
--------------


6. (U) In dramatic fashion, opposition candidate
Levan Gachecheladze and supporters pressed their
way into the CEC early on January 8 to verbally and
publicly attack the CEC for allegedly falsifying
vote summary protocols. The opposition claims that
the protocol summaries posted on the CEC's website
do not match those obtained by their observers in
the precincts. The opposition has called for
protests from January 13 until 18.

EMBASSY SEES NO SYSTEMIC CONCERNS, A FEW
SIGNIFICANT IRREGULARITIES
-------------- --------------
--------------


7. (C) The Embassy fielded 20 teams throughout the
country. Embassy observers saw no systemic
concerns, although observers saw one instance of
ballot stuffing in Akhalkalaki (the ethnic Armenian
region) and many instances of procedural violations
including some voter intimidation and poor counting
procedures. Two of the Embassy teams' protocols
appeared on the CEC website with numbers that were
different from those received at the precinct and
benefited Saakashvili. Ambassador Tefft raised
this issue with CEC Chairman Tarknishvili, who
pledged to look immediately into it and prosecute
anyone found to have doctored election results.
End summary.
TEFFT