GEORGIA: ALASANIA SPEAKS BUT SAYS LITTLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002482

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: ALASANIA SPEAKS BUT SAYS LITTLE

REF: TBILISI 2268

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (SBU) Summary: In his first public statement since his
resignation, former Georgian Ambassador to the UN and newest
opposition figure, Irakli Alasania, addressed the Georgian
media on December 24th. His long anticipated "announcement"
consisted largely of common opposition criticisms of
President Saakashvili. Alasania largely avoided elaborating
on concrete policy differences between himself and the
Saakashvili government he is leaving, and also stayed away
from discussing in detail his future political plans and
alliances. Alasania called for new elections; said he was
consulting with various opposition figures but declined
specifics; and blamed Saakashvili for not avoiding the August
war. Interestingly, Alasania was much more cautious in his
private remarks to the Ambassador, acknowledging that Russia
was not blameless in the August conflict and that we was
carefully considering his options. Alasania then quickly
left for the United States to wrap up his affairs and is
planning to return to Tbilisi in January. End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: Alasania's much anticipated announcement
was a bit underwhelming and quickly faded from news coverage.
Although Alasania has extensive international experience and
a rising political future; the handling of his first public
appearance and nature of his remarks indicate he is still a
novice in the political arena. His comments appear to be
another iteration in the long history of new opposition
figures delivering a familiar message hoping the problem has
not been the message, but rather, the previous messengers.
Alasania's remarks placed him firmly in the non-parliamentary
opposition's rhetorical camp, though he was very careful not
to tie himself to any particular opposition figure. Alasania
is still being courted by many; however, his options have not
broadened since December. Alasania's general popularity will
only carry him so far, eventually the reality of being in the
opposition will force him to decide whether to lead, follow,
or get out of the way. End Comment.

LONG AWAITED PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT FAILS TO DELIVER


3. (C) Alasania delivered vague comments about his
political views and future intentions at a news conference in
Tbilisi on December 24th. Alasania explained that he decided
to resign because of a "fundamental difference in views" with
President Saakashvili. His first public remarks since
declaring himself opposition, did however place Alasania
firmly in the court of the non-parlimamentary radical
opposition. The most notable moment was when Alasania
sharply criticized Saakashvili, saying he fell into Russia's
trap and accused the president of engaging Georgia in "this
provocative war". Overall, Alasania presented a fairly
nuanced message on the war and its build up focusing mainly
on the lack of interagency coordination and institutional
policy apparatus to deal with developments in Abkhazia and
South Ossetia but his criticism of Saakashvili dominated the
headlines.


4. (C) Alasania called for greater transparency, and a new
focus on civil rights and fundamental freedoms. Alasania
also criticized the government for an absence of an economic
strategy. He used the press conference to lay out a laundry
list of criticisms of the Government but did not discuss any
major policy disagreements he has with the current
administration. Alasania repeated a call for new elections
though did not specify whether he preferred Presidential or
Parliamentary elections, only saying early elections "should
QParliamentary elections, only saying early elections "should
be held as soon as possible". Alasania's packed press
conference failed to generate any subsequent debate or press
coverage other than a denouncement by Labor Party Leader
Shalva Natelashvili who called Alasania part of an
(unspecified) American project.

WHILE RADICAL IN PUBLIC, FAR MORE CAUTIOUS IN PRIVATE


5. (C) While Alasania expressed more critical views
publicly, he adopted a more cautious tone in a private lunch
with the P-4 Ambassadors. In his public statements Alasania
directly blamed Saakashvili for the war, something many
Georgian see as playing into the Russians hands and expresses
a view that does not necessarily square with public opinion.
(Embassy Note: According to a new NDI poll conducted in
November and reported septel, 47% of Georgian's polled think
the war could have been avoided against 23% who said it could
not have. However, 59% said Russia started the war compared
to 11% who feel Georgia did, and 43% rated Saakashvili's
performance durig the war as good or very good versus 15%
who said poor or very poor with 26% viewing his performance
as adequate. End Note) However, in private he told the
Ambassador the Russians were not blameless in the conflict -
a message that would have much more resonance among the

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Georgian population, but that could be seen as supporting the
current government. Alasania's immediate calls for pre-term
elections also do not conform with public preferences.
Recent polling (septel) has shown once again that the
Georgian people do not want early elections.

WHERE WILL HE LAND, NOBODY KNOWS


6. (C) Alasania refused to engage questions on what
cooperation he will have with various opposition figures.
When asked if he planed to set up a separate political party,
Alasania said there were already too many parties. He said
the most important issue is to consolidate all the "healthy
political forces". Again, Alasania would not elaborate on
who the "healthy political forces" were but said he would
cooperate with all the groups that share his view on the need
to change the philosophy of the decision-making process.
Asked specifically about Nino Burjanadze, Alasania repeated
that he was having discussions with various parties adding
that he respects her and will hold consultations with her as
well.


7. (C) Alasania spent most of his time in Tbilisi meeting
with various opposition leaders and friends inside and
outside the government. After making the jump to the
opposition, Alasania has been widely courted by opposition
members under different terms and conditions. Alasania
appears reluctant to start his own party; remains still leery
of taking up David Usupashvili and David Gamkrelidze's offer
to lead their joint party; and is unwilling to be a number
two to Nino Burjanadze or Zurab Noghaideli. With snap
pre-term elections doubtful making his chances to win
elective office in the near term unlikely, Alasania might
ultimately decide that waiting a year or two to see what
unfolds politically before making any commitments is the best
course of action.
TEFFT