GEORGIA: PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE PREVIEWS FINDINGS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002420

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE PREVIEWS FINDINGS

REF: A. TBILISI 2016

B. TBILISI 2219

C. TBILISI 2225

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: The Chairman of the ad-hoc of the
Parliamentary Commission ("Commission") to look into events
during and preceding the August war between Georgia and
Russia, Paata Davitaia (Leader of "We Ourselves"
Parliamentary Opposition),briefed the Diplomatic Corps
December 17 on the upcoming release of the Commission's
findings and recommendations (an official English version
should be available early next week). Based on the briefing,
it appears many of the Commission's findings will support the
Commission's conclusion that conflict with Russia was
unavoidable due to repeated Russian (or their South Ossetian
and Abkhaz allies) provocation, law breaking, and aggression.
The Commission found that Russian aggression began in the
1990s and escalated in January 2008, reaching a peak in early
August. The Commission is also expected to be critical of
the GOG's response, or lack thereof, leading up to the August
events. In a separate meeting prior to the briefing,
Davitaia told us that the Commission will outline a number of
proposed recommendations including the replacement of select
Ministers (which has already occurred); better NSC and
Defense coordination; development of coherent foreign policy
coordination between the MFA and Georgia's Embassies; and a
more institutionalized approach to National Security
planning. In his comments to the diplomats, Davitaia noted
that the Commission was an ad hoc body not an investigatory
commission with the power to subpoena or investigate
individuals. However, he repeatedly mentioned the total
cooperation he and the Commission received from all Georgian
authorities. The Commission's report will be presented to
the public by Davitaia on live television beginning at 1800
Tbilisi time, December 18, and then released to the public in
writing on December 19. End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: From our vantage point, the Commission's
approach reflects an honest, professional, and thorough look
at what lead to the August conflict and how the Georgian
Government responded. The unprecedented and public
appearances of 22 high-ranking Georgian officials,
culminating with the five-hour appearance of President
Saakashvili before the nation, was historic and kept the
nation enthralled for several weeks. The Commission findings
are expected to highlight one important fact -- that this
conflict cannot and should not be boiled down to only what
happened on August 7. Although the findings are critical of
Saakashvili and his Government and how they handled the
conflict, the report focuses on structural issues rather than
attempting to assign blame on any particular individual.
President Saakashvili largely pre-empted many of the proposed
recommendations by his recent Cabinet shake up, which appears
to have taken place partly to take some of the political
sting out of Davitaia's impending recommendations. However,
this also indicates how seriously Saakashvili appears to have
taken this Commission, because of his decision to make key
Cabinet and personnel changes, and by his agreement to
testify in front of the Commission. The GOG's next challenge
will be to assess the findings and initiate institutional
changes to ensure future Georgian policies and decisions are
better planned and executed. End Comment.

COMMISSION FINDS FAULTS


3. (C) The Commission found a number of faults with the
GOG's handling of the August events. Lack of coordination
QGOG's handling of the August events. Lack of coordination
between the NSC and armed forces was specifically
highlighted. Leading up to and during the conflict,
decisions were made hastily on an ad hoc basis which often
lacked key input from other facets of government. The
Commission criticized the inadequacy of planning prior to
August 7, noting that no GOG governmental sessions were held,
and no preparatory meetings were organized to discuss how to
coordinate a response if Russia invaded or how to deal
institutionally with an up-tick of South Ossetian or Abkhaz
irregular activity. Considering the conflict had been
simmering for over a decade, the GOG could have been much
better prepared to deal with various contingencies of open
conflict in South Ossetia. The Commission also accused
Russia of openly aiding and abetting irregular forces engaged
in military activity in the two breakaway regions. The full
report will be read on live television the evening of
December 18 to inform the public of the Commission's
assessment, before being released in written form on December

19. An English-language version should be available the week
of December 22.

DAVITAIA TELLS US WHAT HE REALLY THINKS


4. (C) Davitaia also previewed the Commission's findings to

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visiting EUR DAS Bryza on December 16. He said that all
those Cabinet members and staffers who came under suspicion
for subpar or negligent performance have already been
replaced. He seemed pleased with the results, but was
serious about insisting for more institutional change.
Davitaia, an IDP from Abkhazia himself, harbors no illusions
as to who is ultimately responsible for creating an untenable
situation in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. He said the Russian
General Staff had already prepared a military attack order
and the Russians had been ramping up provocations since early
this year. He also said he believes the Russians used
tactical weapons such as Iskander and Tochka - U missiles
solely to show potential buyers (he named Syria) their
capabilities. Davitaia criticized the Russians for
continuing the conflict after the cease-fire was signed and
lamented that the Russian appear to be hardening their
positions.


5. (C) Davitaia told members of a visiting CODEL (the House
Democracy Assistance Commission) December 18 that although
different Commission members have different points of view on
the actors and the events (and are from different political
parties),the findings represented an uncontroversial
consensus. Davitaia pointed out that even GOG officials who
were interviewed by the Commission have publicly admitted to
shortcomings and mistakes. Because the Commission has no
investigatory power, all allegations that involve potential
legal repercussions have been turned over to the Prosecutor
General's office for possible investigation, including the
statements of former Georgian Ambassador to Russia, Erosi
Kitsmarashvili, who alleged that the U.S. gave Georgia a
"green light" to attack. Commission Member, Levan
Vepkhvadze (Deputy Speaker - Christian Democrats) added that
all claims of atrocities, including South Ossetian claims of
Georgian atrocities, have also been turned over to the
Prosecutor General's Office for formal investigations.
Finally, Davitaia expressed his hope and willingness to work
with Chairperson Heidi Tagliavini's EU investigation.
TEFFT