GEORGIA: NEW OPPOSITION ALLIANCE UPS THE ANTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002304

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: NEW OPPOSITION ALLIANCE UPS THE ANTE

REF: TBILISI 2189

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: David Usupashvili (Republicans) and David
Gamkrelidze (New Rights),two of the more moderate leaders in
the opposition outside of parliament, formally announced
their alliance, thereby making public their plans to work
together as an opposition voice. The two also extended a
public offer to Irakli Alasania to become the leader of this
new alliance at a press conference. Usupashvili and
Gamkrelidze called for new parliamentary and presidential
elections though did not specify any timetable. Both
downplayed policy differences between them, preferring to
focus on a yet-to-be-released joint policy platform. They
also ruled out any cooperation with former Prime Minister
Zurab Noghaideli, and said they would work with Nino
Burjanadze and her party on the condition she give up her
presidential ambitions.


2. (C) Comment: The move was widely expected and timed to
coincide with Alasania's resignation as UN Permanent
Representative. Previously, David Usupashvili indicated to
the Ambassador that Alasania's move to lead this new
opposition bloc was imminent. By going forward with the
announcement without Alasania's participation and publicly
offering the leadership role to Alasania, the two Datos (as
they are known here) made it appear as if Alasania might
still be weighing his options inside the government and out.
Without Alasania, the new alliance represents more of a
codification of existing political conditions than a new way
forward, and a visible sign that the opposition outside of
parliament is splitting into moderate and radical factions.
However, if Usupashvili and Gamkrelidze are true to their
stated intention of issues-based party building, the new
alliance could serve as a positive force for a more
productive political dialogue. End Summary and Comment.

Hey Irakli, Let's Make a Deal


3. (C) As David Gamkrelidze told us a few weeks ago, a new
alliance had been agreed upon and he and Usupashvili were
waiting for the right timing. Gamkrelidze and Usupashvili
have been focused on convincing Alasania to head up the new
coalition. By going public now, they have both separated
themselves from the more radical members of the
extra-parliamentary opposition and confirmed that they had
been talking with Alasania. At their press conference, they
went one step further by publicly offering their coalition to
Alasania. The public offer might be an attempt to force
Alasania's hand and get him to commit to joining the two
Datos in opposition. Gamkrelidze's and Usupashvili's offer
to Alasania represents the foundation of a ready made
centrist political party; access to funds and organization
(albeit it limited); and a top spot. The downside is that
joining their coalition also means taking on the baggage of
two national politicians who lack any natural constituency,
power base or real popularity. Alasania appears to be
weighing the offer, although with no scheduled elections, the
immediate upside of joining this newly-formed coalition is
greatly diminished and would make it hard for Alasania to
present himself as a new face on the political scene.

We'll Get To That Later


4. (C) Although socially very close friends, politically
there are significant policy differences between the "two
Dato's." When asked the obvious question as to who would
lead the alliance if Alasania demurred, they said they would
address the issue later. They were also asked about
immediate elections and calls for Saakashvili's resignation
Qimmediate elections and calls for Saakashvili's resignation
which New Rights favored and the Republicans opposed;
disagreements on governmental structure; and about its joint
platform. David Usupashvili simple stated that "(a)fter one
month, the coalition will present to the society its
platform, action plan and its leader, which will manage to
unite the democratic forces in the country to secure the
change of the current government." Privately both have
stressed to us that they understand the need to find a
message other than simply being anti-Saakashvili.
Unfortunately the focus on a personality based future
(Alasania); the absence of articulating a coherent
alternative message and governing vision during the
announcement of their coalition; and focusing on calls for
new elections show that old habits indeed die hard.

Partners Are Scarce


5. (C) In the May Parliamentary Elections, the
Usupashvili-led Republicans won 3.8 percent of the vote while
in the January Presidential Elections, David Gamkrelidze won
4.0 percent of the vote. (Embassy Note: In the
Parliamentary Elections, the New Rights party ran with United

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Opposition and not as an individual party so parliamentary
numbers are unavailable. End Note.) Following his
disappointing show in the presidential elections, Gamkrelidze

had embraced the more radical opposition outside of
parliament. The new coalition with Usupashvili shows his
return to the mode moderate center.


6. (C) At best, the new coalition represents a small
percentage of the voting populace and without some unlikely
multiplier effect, it will need to gain partners to act as a
more credible political force. The new coalition has
publicly ruled out Noghaideli and, as a practical matter,
Nino Burjanadze, who is clearly not willing to be anybody's
number two. Some press outlets are reporting that Ombudsman
Sozar Subari has had discussions about joining the new
coalition, although Subari has refused to confirm or deny the
matter and is reportedly happy to be politically active from
his ombudsman's office. Both David Gamkrelidze and
Usupashvili have told us that Levan Gachechiladze is welcome
to join under the condition he distance himself from the more
radical opposition. Gachechiladze is reluctant to do so as
of yet. Moreover, he does not bring a significant
organization or constituency to the coalition should he
decide to join. Privately, both Gamkrelidze and Usupashvili
rule out cooperation with others in the more radical
opposition. Although they may play a significant role,
absent Alasania or perhaps Subari, the new
Gamkrelidze/Usupashvili coalition has few if any obvious
avenues to further consolidate the larger opposition.
TEFFT