GEORGIA: CABINET RESHUFFLE TRIGGERED BY ALASANIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002268

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: CABINET RESHUFFLE TRIGGERED BY ALASANIA
RESIGNATION

REF: TBILISI 2189

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: Prime Minister Mgaloblishvili announced a
cabinet reshuffle on December 6 almost immediately following
the news that Irakli Alasania, Georgia's former Ambassador to
the UN, had resigned. Grigol Vashadze, current Minister of
Culture and former Deputy Foreign Minister, was named the new
FM. Nika Gvaramia, a former Justice Minister, has been named
the Education Minister. Defense Minister Davit Kezerashvili
was dismissed, replaced by his deputy Batu Kutelia. Although
another reshuffle was expected in early 2009, the timing of
this announcement came as a surprise to many including
incoming FM Vashadze, who noted at the news briefing
announcing the reshuffle that he had only learned about it a
half hour in advance. President Saakashvili insisted that
the move was in the works for weeks and was not a reaction to
Alasania's announcement. Saakashvili has been wooing
Alasania for months to take a major position in the Cabinet,
and reportedly formally offered Alasania the post of Foreign
Minister or Minister of Defense once he learned of Alasania's
resignation to try to stave off his defection to the
opposition, but Alasania declined. Alasania is expected to
explain his resignation and future plans publicly in the
weeks ahead once he returns to Tbilisi. He is in discussions
with and being actively courted by David Usupashvili
(Republican party) and David Gamkrelidze (New Rights party)
to head their newly formed opposition coalition. PM
Mgaloblishvili also announced that Kakha Lomaia will leave
his post as the Secretary of Georgia's National Security
Council but will continue his work in diplomatic service,
perhaps at the UN according to one press report.


2. (C) Comment: The Cabinet reshuffle on the heels of
Alasania's resignation appears to be an attempt by
Saakashvili to lessen the political impact of the Alasania's
announcement. Despite public assertions by President
Saakashvili that consultations about the reshuffle were
underway for weeks, it seems clear that Alasania's decision
to resign triggered Saakashvili's decision to move quickly
with the reshuffle. The fact that incoming FM Vashadze was
out of the loop on the reshuffle decision, that Zurab
Abashidze (former Georgian Ambassador to Russia) turned down
the post of Minister of Culture and the news that current
Minister of Education reportedly learned that he had been
fired from watching television are all indications that the
move may have been made hastily and without much
consultation. However, by moving quickly, Saakashvili has
also preempted what we understand will be one of the
recommendations of the Parliamentary commission investigating
the war -- to change key ministers. Saakashvili now finds
former United National Movement (UNM) allies such as
Alasania, former Speaker of the Parliament Burjanadze, and
former Prime Minister Nogaideli in the opposition's ranks.
As a result, the domestic political situation may just be
starting to evolve into the kind of multi-party competitive
political system that the USG has long advocated. End
Summary and Comment.

ALASANIA'S NEXT MOVE


3. (C) Rumors about Alasania's resignation have been
swirling since early 2008. He downplayed that his
announcement came as a surprise to President Saakashvili,
saying that he and the President had discussed it during the
UNGA summit in September. Alasania said he began to consider
QUNGA summit in September. Alasania said he began to consider
resigning his position in early May 2008, but then decided
against making a move due to the August conflict. He
postponed any announcement until after the NATO ministerial,
not wanting to prejudice any potential decision on MAP.
Alasania has been coy about his future intentions, refusing
to confirm publicly his plans and promising only that he will
provide details in the coming weeks when he returns to
Tbilisi. Regardless, Alasania appears poised to enter the
political arena, but may very well have not yet determined
under what guise. Although he has been in discussions with
David Gamkrelidze and David Usupashvili, he has made no
public promises about his political future with their new
coalition. Many of Alasania's confidants here in Tbilisi,
like Chair of the Parliament's Foreign Policy Committee Lasha
Zhvania, are concerned that joining an existing opposition
group like Usupashvili's Republicans or Gamkrelidze's New
Rigts will tarnish his image as a fresh face. Alasania
appears to be carefully weighing whether joining them would
result in a broad, credible opposition movement or simply
serve to damage his own public stature. Other commentators
have expressed the opinion that by naming Batu Kutelia as
Minister of Defense, President Saakashvili is keeping the
seat warm for Alasania in case he has a change of heart.

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Other new opposition parties, including those of Burjanadze
and Noghaideli, have also reportedly wooed Alasania to join
their respective groups, but both see Alasania aQqdQ#Qr
Minister. Vashadze is a dual national (Russian and Georgian)
and a former Soviet diplomat known for having very good
contacts in Russian political circles. The move could
signal, at least superficially, an acknowledgment by
Saakashvili that he intends to take a slightly different tack
in approaching relations with Russia. However, the hasty
nature and timing of the announcement seem to belie that
naming Vashadze as FM has some greater significance. For his
part, Vashadze says that Georgia's foreign policy will not
change under his leadership. With Vashadze taking over at
the MFA, the future of Giga Bokeria, Saakashivili insider and
current Deputy Foreign Minister, is also unclear. When
Vashadze moved from the MFA to Culture, he noted to us that
he was relieved to have left MFA because it was impossible to
work for a minister whose instructions were cou$QuQS#Cria will undoubtedly continue to have
a key role in the government, where that will be is yet to be
seen. Another familiar face, Nika Gvaramia, will take over
the Ministry of Education having been replaced as the
Minister of Justice last November.


5. (C) Batu Kutelia will move from Deputy to Minister at
Defense, a position that he was rumored to be in line for
prior to the conflict. The move leaves the door open for
Alasania and possibly preempted a likely Parliamentary
Commission recommendation to remove Davit Kezerashvili as
Minister of Defense and to make other changes in
Saakashvili's national security team. The Minister of
Culture position remains vacant as Zurab Abashidze declined
to take the job. President Saakashvili without apparently
noticing the irony, commented that the most recent cabinet
reshuffle would provide "new blood". Saakashvili-90QQir work and noted that not a single
one was being dismissed for poor performance.


6. (C) Though many had publicly called for the Minister of
Defense and Foreign Minister to be changed, opposition
H.Qign.
Conservative leader Zviad Dzidj)@sQokrgi Gugava (Labor) called the new Ministers
the "Last of the Mohicans" and predicted the imminent
resignation of President Saakashvili. Paata Davitaia, head
of the temporary parliamentary commission, called for
democratic changes for the entire political system and not
just at a staff level.
TEFFT