GEORGIA: SERIOUS INCIDENTS, FATALITIES ON THE RISE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 002176

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: SERIOUS INCIDENTS, FATALITIES ON THE RISE

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary and comment. Recent weeks have seen an
increase in the number and severity of boundary-line
incidents, including several fatalities. The one exception
is Perevi, where the withdrawal of Ossetian forces reduced
tensions -- although Russian forces still occupy a checkpoint
outside South Ossetia and control access to the village. The
arrival of Ossetian forces at other formerly Russian
checkpoints has created a new potential source of tension,
however. The seemingly deliberate nature of several of these
incidents suggests that there are forces in both Abkhazia and
South Ossetia trying to foment instability. End summary and
comment.

South Ossetia: Explosions, Shootings and Checkpoints


2. (SBU) Two recent incidents on the edges of South Ossetia
involving explosive devices reflect intentional mischief. On
November 17, two Georgian police officers were killed and
eight individuals wounded, including two children, in one of
two separate incidents involving apparent aerial devices.
The OSCE reported one device landed in Kere (just outside the
administrative boundary, east of Tskhinvali); it was found
and removed by Interior Ministry personnel with no further
incident. Another device landed in nearby Plavi. It was
found and removed by Interior Ministry personnel to what they
thought was a more secure location in the village, but it
then detonated, killing two and wounding eight. Explosives
were apparently packed into a compartment designed to hold a
camera. The OSCE had not seen any such device before. The
Interior Ministry said in a public statement that the device
was detonated remotely; the EU Monitoring Mission (EUMM)
thought it might have been detonated accidentally by the
officers.


3. (SBU) On November 10, two Georgian police officers were
killed by an explosive device rigged to a South Ossetian flag
placed in Dvani, outside South Ossetia, and three others were
wounded in a second explosion. The OSCE noted similar booby
traps were used in Northern Ireland and demonstrate a clear
intent to harm.


4. (C) Two recent incidents involving sniper attacks likewise
seem to reflect deliberate targeting on both sides. The OSCE
reported that on November 5, a sniper's bullet did not
injure, but hit the collar of a Georgian police officer in
Zemo Nikozi, just outside the administrative boundary south
of Tskhinvali. Also on November 5, South Ossetian press
reported that a sniper from outside South Ossetia shot and
killed a South Ossetian man, Oleg Disev, while he was driving
his car near the village of Korkula. In a November 20
briefing for the diplomatic corps, the EUMM noted that they
had collected evidence that Georgian Interior Ministry forces
had at their disposal a Brugger and Thomet sniper rifle, with
silencer. The EUMM characterized this as an offensive weapon
and expressed concern that it was not in keeping with its
discussions with the Georgians about the types of weapons --
defensive ones -- that Georgian forces would deploy in the
areas adjacent to South Ossetia.


5. (SBU) Other incidents may not reflect planned attacks, but
highlight the tense atmosphere around the administrative
boundary. On November 19, for example, a car carrying
officials from the South Ossetian de facto prosecutor's
office set out for Ksuisi, a village inside South Ossetia, to
investigate a murder. On the way, however, the car took a
Qinvestigate a murder. On the way, however, the car took a
turn that led them out of the South Ossetia, and it
encountered a Georgian checkpoint. The Georgians reportedly
fired warning shots, which led to an exchange of gunfire; one
Ossetian official was seriously injured. Noting the
confusing nature of the roads in the villages, the OSCE
suggested it was quite possible that the car took the road
out of South Ossetia by mistake. Whatever the reason for the
wrong turn, neither side appeared comfortable enough to
approach each and discuss the situation, but rather turned
immediately to their guns. The night of November 12 and 13,
extended gunfire occurred across the administrative boundary
near the village of Koshka; no one was reported injured. The
Interior Ministry told the OSCE that the shooting came in one
direction only, from South Ossetia into undisputed Georgian
territory. The OSCE was unable to confirm this.


6. (SBU) Over the past few weeks, the EUMM and OSCE have
observed that Ossetian forces have begun taking over
checkpoints from Russian forces. At the November 20
briefing, the EUMM noted that Ossetians have assumed control
of checkpoints near Knolevi, Ergneti, Monasteri and Odzisi;
in the case of Monasteri, the checkpoint has been moved to
nearby Mskhlebi. Neither organization has reported any

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specific incidents related to these changes of command, but
both noted that the change increases the potential for direct
confrontation between Ossetians and Georgians.


7. (SBU) One situation that has improved is that of Perevi,
where Ossetian forces departed the checkpoint between
November 15 and 16 in favor of Russian forces once again. On
November 18 representatives of the UN High Commissioner for
Refugees entered Perevi, and the OSCE entered on November 19,
under Russian escort. Estimates vary, but the OSCE thought
60% of the population remained in the village, and about 20%
of students were back in class; the OSCE called the security
situation in the village good. The OSCE also planned to meet
with Russian forces to discuss the establishment of contacts
between Russian officials and local administrative officials.
The EUMM noted that villagers expressed concerns about their
fields, some of which they said had been incorporated by
Ossetian de facto authorities into South Ossetian territory.
Without access to their crops, the villagers thus face a
difficult winter, and their future livelihood is also in
question.

Abkhazia: Shooting, Explosions and Harassment


8. (SBU) Three recent incidents near Abkhazia suggest
intentional efforts by Abkhaz forces to attack or provoke the
Georgian side. On November 20, two heavy exchanges of fire
occurred near Ganmukhuri, outside Abkhazia but north of the
Enguri River, at 0630 and 0905, each lasting about 10
minutes. UNOMIG found that all of the exchanges occurred
entirely outside the administrative boundary in undisputed
Georgian territory. No injuries were reported, although one
of the Abkhaz targets seemed to be a Georgian Interior
Ministry post. UNOMIG reports rocket-propelled grenades,
machine guns and small arms were used in the exchanges, and
two armored vehicles were used on the Abkhaz side; UNOMIG was
unable to determine who manned the vehicles. It is not clear
what initiated the exchanges, although Georgian Interior
Ministry sources called the first one a coordinated attack by
Abkhaz forces. Georgian press reported that the Abkhaz
forces left mines in their positions as they departed; UNOMIG
confirmed the presence of anti-personnel mines, but noted
that they were set with tripwires, would have demanded some
time to set. UNOMIG therefore speculated that Abkhaz forces
came into the area under cover of darkness, over the night of
November 19-20, and lay the mines at that time; UNOMIG also
speculated that discovery of these Abkhaz forces may have led
to the shooting. UNOMIG also reported two Russian
helicopters overhead during the second exchange, one MI-8 and
one MI-24.


9. (SBU) On November 15, the Georgian Interior Ministry
received reports of individuals being detained while trying
to cross the border into Abkhazia in the vicinity of
Kalagali, a village just outside the administrative boundary,
north of the Enguri River and northwest of Tsalenjikha.
Officers went to investigate, and while in the area came
under fire from unidentified forces in the woods. One
Georgian police officer was killed by a shot to the head.
EUMM and UNOMIG were informed and sent patrols to the scene
to investigate. At about 1515, heavy firing erupted,
although no one was injured. A UNOMIG investigation found
several hundred shells of four different calibers in the
area. Although Abkhaz press quoted de facto authorities as
Qarea. Although Abkhaz press quoted de facto authorities as
saying that the Interior Ministry forces were inside
Abkhazia, both EUMM and UNOMIG found that all of the events
occurred outside, though close to, the boundary. UNOMIG
found one and possibly two firing positions on a hill
overlooking the area and determined that the attack was
likely planned in advance.


10. (SBU) On November 14, an explosion damaged an electric
transformer in Muzhava, shutting off power to three local
villages. UNOMIG reported that some kind of improvised
explosive device caused the explosion, possibly detonated
remotely. The EUMM noted that two cows were killed as well.
As of November 20, villagers in Muzhava and Eritskali told
UNOMIG they still did not have power.


11. (SBU) The situation along the boundary has become more
tense in other ways as well. UNOMIG has received several
reports of documents, including passports, being seized at
the boundary by both Abkhaz and Russian forces and either
removed to a regional office, where individuals have to make
a special request for their return, or destroyed. UNOMIG has
also received reports of Abkhaz forces seizing and burning
Georgian-language textbooks. Both EUMM and UNOMIG continue
to receive reports of difficulties individuals face in
crossing the boundary. EUMM itself remains unable to enter
Abkhazia. On November 4, an EUMM patrol entered Abkhazia

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near Eritskali; shortly after it crossed the boundary,
Russian and Abkhaz forces forced the monitors to depart
Abkhazia at gun point. Abkhaz de facto officials told EUMM
Head of Mission Haber in Geneva on November 18 that they
would not allow EU monitors into Abkhazia. UNOMIG continues
to have freedom of movement for the most part, but it has
encountered resistance as well. Both Russian and Abkhaz
forces confronted a UNOMIG patrol in a "particularly hostile
manner" throughout their patrol through the Gali sector on
November 19. An Abkhaz drew his weapon at a UNOMIG patrol on
November 15 near Saberio, about which UNOMIG complained to a
regional commander; the next day the personnel at that same
checkpoint were "unusually polite."

An Attack Taxonomy


12. (SBU) The deputy head of the EUMM offered at the November
20 briefing his analysis of recent incidents. He saw three
types of events occurring. First, attacks designed to
destroy property and complicate the life of residents; the
explosion of the transformer in Muzhava is an example.
Second, inadvertent escalation of confrontations between
forces on the two sides, such as the exchanges of fires near
Kalagali. (Note: Post is not convinced that the Abkhaz
presence near Kalagali was either inadvertent or benign and
would suggest the incident near Mereti is a better example of
this category. End note.) Third, intentional, malicious
attacks designed to kill or maim, such as the booby-trapped
flag or the UAVs; he saw these types of events as the most
pernicious.

Comment: A Deliberate Increase in Tension


13. (C) All international observers agree that the last two
weeks have seen an increase in the frequency and severity of
incidents along the boundary line. The EUMM's three
categories probably reflect different motivations for
violence, but it is noteworthy that incidents in all three
categories seem to be on the rise. Even though some of the
incidents can be attributed to the inherent danger of having
armed enemies in close proximity to each other, it seems
clear that there are parties inside Abkhazia and South
Ossetia trying to increase tensions and stir up trouble.
TEFFT