DAS BRYZA MEETS CIVIL SOCIETY MEMBERS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000204

SIPDIS

USAID
STATE FOR EUR DAS BRYZA

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUMKDEM GG
SUBJECT: DAS BRYZA MEETS CIVIL SOCIETY MEMBERS


1. (SBU) Summary: In a meeting with DAS Bryza and Ambassador,
representatives of civil society discussed the problems of the
Presidential election and what impact it would have on Saakashvili's
second term. The group was divided on whether Saakashvili won in
the first round. Many thought that a second round would have
ensured Saakashvili's legitimacy and without it, he may be hard
pressed to implement his initiatives with the new (and likely more
divided) Parliament. They thought the opposition is whipping up
Anti-American sentiments for its own means, since it is widely
perceived that Saakashvili's government is supported by the U.S.
administration. To counter this, they recommended that the U.S.
should demonstrate that it supports the Georgian people and not a
particular person or political party. Despite setbacks on November
7 and the imperfect election, all said the country has matured
politically and Georgian society overall has emerged as a stronger
democratic institution: Georgia is experiencing a competitive
system for the first time, where one candidate or one party does not
control everything. Respected NGO leader Alex Rondeli summed it up,
saying that when we look back, we will assess that Georgian
democracy had taken a big step forward-but he feared how Russia
might take advantage of the situation during this time and advised
of the need, especially now, for continued U.S. support. End
Summary.


2. (SBU) On January 18, DAS Bryza and Ambassador met with civil
society representatives Alexander Rondeli (Georgian Foundation of
Strategic and International Studies, GFSIS),Tamar Kekenadze (New
Generation New Initiative-nGnI),Gia Nodia (Caucasus Institute),
Shalva Pichkhadze (Georgia for NATO),Giorgi Chkheidze (Georgian
Young Lawyers Association, GYLA),Eka Siradze (International Society
for Fair Elections, ISFED),Tamar Karosanidze (Transparency
International, TI),and Eka Kvesitadze (24 Hours) to talk about the
presidential election and what impact it would have on Saakashvili's
second term.

Debate Over the Results
--------------

3. (SBU) The group was divided on the issue of whether Saakashvili
had won an outright majority in the first round, although all agreed
Saakashvili would have won in a second round. Some believed that
even though Saakashvili would have won a second round, the process
would have been better served had the election gone on to two
rounds. Many thought a second round would have ensured
Saakashvili's legitimacy and without it, he may be hard pressed to
implement his initiatives with the new (and likely divided)
Parliament. ISFED conducted a parallel turnout tabulation on
election day at 394 Precinct Election Commissions. Based on this
representative sample, ISFED determined that Saakashvili garnered
50.8% of the vote.


4. (SBU) The group attributed Saakashvili's high success rate in
minority regions to the trend that minorities in Georgia typically
vote for the incumbent president and in far away regions, like
Javakheti, residents simply do not know other candidates. To
illustrate, GFSIS's Rondeli said that Shalva Natelashvili, Labor
Party, traveled briefly to Akhalkalaki to campaign and his message
was, "Georgians in Tbilisi don't want Saakashvili, why would you
here?" and promptly left. There continues to be a vacuum of
information, which translates to votes for the incumbent.

Concerns About the Process
--------------

5. (SBU) TI's Karosanidze assessed that the pre-election period was
problematic due to reports of abuse of administrative resources and
easy access to the media by the incumbent versus the other
candidates. She characterized election day as satisfactory, even
though procedural violations were observed. She and nGnI's
Kekenadze both expressed concern about the problems seen after the
close of the polls, especially including counting procedures of the
red ballots (same day registrants). Chkheidze said that he was
concerned at the lack of a transparent process to track complaints
and indifference with which the courts had perfunctorily dismissed
GYLA's 230 cases linked to election day violations. TI, GYLA, and
ISFED representatives agreed and said in many instances their formal
complaints were ignored by the precinct election commissions (PECs)
and the district electoral commissions (DECs). GYLA alleged that in
many instances, their concerns were not addressed at all, whether it
be at the PEC, DEC or even through the court system. Chkheideze
maintained that GYLA was less interested in who won than in the
transparency of the tabulation results. He believed that "final
result" of the election was still not clear.


6. (SBU) Comparing the elections with latest local elections of
October 5, 2006, the group said that the latter were much better
than presidential elections since there were fewer irregularities.
However, all said in a more general sense that the presidential
elections were better for Georgian democracy overall in that they
were moving Georgia forward to a multi-party system.

TBILISI 00000204 002 OF 002



The Ugly Rise of Anti-Americanism
--------------

7. (SBU) Nodia attributed the possible increase of Anti-American
sentiments to the perception that Saakashvili's government is
supported by the U.S. administration and the opposition may be
whipping up these feelings for its own end. All stressed that the
U.S. should demonstrate that it supports the Georgian people, and
not a particular person or political group by investing in
institutions and groups rather than individuals.

What it Means for Georgian Democracy
--------------

8. (SBU) Rondeli said the past month's internal turmoil has turned
Georgia into a more mature country with a stronger democratic
society. While November 7 events were a misstep on Georgia's long
road to NATO, Georgia's further development with a potentially
multi-party parliament and stronger democratic institutions would
work positively for Georgia's integration in the Euro-Atlantic
community. He went on to say that Georgia has never known such a
competitive political environment as has developed over the last
months. Previously, there was principally one party but now
multiple parties are evolving. He believed that when we look back,
this period will have been a big step forward for Georgian
democracy. Rondeli said this was a positive change, but relayed his
concerns that Russia may take advantage of the situation, and
advised of the need, especially now, for continued U.S. support.

What it Means for the Second Term
--------------

9. (SBU) All agreed that the inclusion of more voices in government
and Parliament would result in a slow down of reforms during
Saakashvili's second term, but didn't see this as necessarily bad.
They believed that the benefits of checks and balances in the
leadership outweighed the risk of political paralysis-although they
all worried how Russia might take advantage of the situation.


10. (U) DAS Bryza cleared this cable.