GEORGIA: LOW TURNOUT EXPECTED FOR NOVEMBER 3 ELECTIONS IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002018

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CARC

E.O 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: LOW TURNOUT EXPECTED FOR NOVEMBER 3 ELECTIONS IN
ADJARA AND TBILISI

REF: A) TBILISI 1072


1. Summary and comment: On November 3 elections will be held for the
Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Adjara, which is
institutionally an important component of Adjara's autonomy but a
plays a minimal national role. By-elections for the national
Parliament will also take place in two districts of Tbilisi. The
seats in Tbilisi were vacated by opposition politicians who declined
to take their seats following the May elections. Seven political
parties are participating in the Adjara elections and five are
running in Tbilisi. The ruling United National Movement (UNM) and
Industrialists are participating in the Adjara elections, but not in
Tbilisi; UNM chose not to run in the Tbilisi by-elections, partly to
allow space for opposition parties in the Parliament, given their
current majority. Public interest and media coverage of the
elections are generally low. The UNM is likely to win the majority
of the Adjaran Supreme Council seats. The Christian Democrats, who
are getting positive public feedback for taking their seats in
Parliament are favored in Tbilisi. Results are unlikely to affect
policy in Tbilisi, but some analysts will undoubtedly interpret the
results of these elections as an indication of public views on the
Government's performance during and since the August conflict with
Russia. End summary and comment.


2. On November 3, elections will be held in Adjara (a
semi-autonomous region in southwest Georgia, bordering Turkey) for
the Supreme Council, or local Adjaran parliament. The Adjaran
Supreme Election Council is conducting the elections. Seven parties
are competing for 18 seats. Three of the parties, the
Christian-Democratic Movement (CDM),"We Ourselves," and "Qartuli
Dasi" (Georgian Group),make up the minority in Georgia's national
Parliament. The other four parties include: the ruling UNM,
Industrialists, "Georgian Politics," and the United Communist Party
of Georgia. Most opposition parties, including those that were part
of the united opposition coalition, are boycotting the elections
(despite their calls in Tbilisi for new parliamentary or
presidential elections). The Conservative Party publicly admitted
that it registered for the elections only to take advantage of
guaranteed televised airtime allocated to parties during the
electoral campaign. Although the Conservative Party has not
nominated candidates, the party is using the airtime to call on
voters to boycott the election and support the Conservatives'
agenda.



3. Most opposition parties boycotting the elections cite the new
political reality they claim has emerged since the August conflict,
as their reason not to participate. However, the Labor Party
announced its boycott before August. Other opposition parties,
including the Republican Party (which is historically strong in
Adjara),say that there are more important priorities than the local
elections in Adjara, including working out joint opposition tactics
on how to achieve an early general election. According to the
results of NDI focus groups in Adjara, voters see the Supreme
Council as not affecting their daily lives in any way and are
therefore, not interested in participating in these elections


4. By-elections are also scheduled for November 3 in the Vake and
Didube single-mandate constituencies of Tbilisi. The Central
Election Commission (CEC) is conducting these by-elections. Both
contests were called following the June resignation of the
candidates elected in May (reftel),the New Rightists' Davit
Qcandidates elected in May (reftel),the New Rightists' Davit
Gamkrelidze and Davit Saganeldze, in protest at what they called
"the fraudulent May 21 parliamentary elections." The recent
International Republican Institute poll on political attitudes
indicated that the Georgian public supported the CDM's decision to
enter Parliament and work within existing political frameworks.
This was reflected in increasing public confidence in the CDM, and
significant drops by the non-Parliamentary opposition.
Interestingly, the CDM is running a candidate only in Vake district
and not in Didube. This may lend credence to claims by some that
the CDM is colluding with the UNM. However, CDM's candidate, Tamaz
Kvachantiradze, was Minister of Education under Shevardnadze and is
well-known and respected . The CDM may be focusing its limited
resources on just one candidate in order to maximize efforts. The
CDM is also working hard, en masse, in the Adjara campaign. This
may be yet another sign that the party is further pursuing its
public agenda of creating a grassroots party.


5. Most opposition parties are also boycotting these majoritarian
by-elections in Tbilisi. The UNM has refused to nominate
candidates, "since the seats were won by the opposition." In
addition, a win by the UNM in either constituency would simply add
additional seats to its already lopsided parliamentary majority.
The opposition Industrialists and Conservatives are refusing to run
in Tbilisi. The Conservatives are not putting candidates forward
for the parliament, as they consider the current Parliament
illegitimate due to flawed elections in May 2008. While the
Industrialists have not publicly explained why they are not running
a candidate in Tbilisi, it is likely due to their solidarity with

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the New Rightists who renounced seats in parliament following the
May election. Only six parties have registered candidates for
Tbilisi: the CDM, We Ourselves, Qartuli Dasi (Georgian Group),
National Democratic party (NDP),"Georgian Politics" and the
Radical-Democrats.


6. Public interest in both the Adjaran and Tbilisi elections is
low. The Georgian public, having already experienced a presidential
and parliamentary election in 2008, appear to have election fatigue.
In addition, the August conflict with Russia has many citizens
thinking of security and not elections. Consequently, public
interest in the elections is low. The public does not view the
elections as a referendum on Saakashvili, his management of the
conflict or the National Movement party.


7. Both the CEC and international election-related organizations
expect low turnout. Media coverage during the pre-election period
was low, and lingering questions about the quality of the voters'
list (i.e. names of deceased, others not in Georgia remaining on the
list) could also be potentially problematic. Embassy Tbilisi and
USAID will send three teams of election observers to Adjara, as well
as visit polling stations in Tbilisi. The UK Embassy and some
others will also observe; ODIHR and OSCE will not be formally
observing these races.

LOGSDON