GEORGIA: IRI NATIONAL VOTER SURVEY: GEORGIANS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 001987

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM RU GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: IRI NATIONAL VOTER SURVEY: GEORGIANS
UNITED BEHIND SAAKASHVILI

REF: TBILISI 437

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Kent D. Logsdon for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).


1. (C) Summary: The latest USAID-funded International
Republican Institute (IRI) poll, based on 1,500 surveys
conducted from September 23 to October 1, showed that the
August war with Russia dominated the national mood. IRI said
the poll showed that Georgians believed that Russian
aggression was an ongoing effort, and their government was
not responsible for starting the war. President
Saakashvili's performance during the war was viewed
positively, and only nine percent supported a call for his
resignation. Despite the war and economic pressures, the
country remained optimistic. Slightly more people said the
country is going in the right direction than did in February
(reftel). Confidence in nearly all public institutions has
increased, and petty corruption, according to the
respondents, remained low. Georgians continue to value an
opposition, dialogue, and the democratic process.
Respondents approved the Christian-Democratic Movement's
(CDM) decision to enter Parliament. Those parties that
refused to enter Parliament lost influence. Georgians
overwhelmingly expressed a desire for internal stability in
the country and were strongly opposed to internal political
instability. War and Russian aggression were people's
biggest fears. Not surprisingly, regaining the separatist
regions had surpassed job creation as a priorities for the
government. Georgians rejected the concept of independence
for Abkhazia and South Ossetia's and they believed the
regions will again be part of Georgia, but only through
peaceful means. Georgians supported Saakashvili's efforts to
integrate Georgia in to NATO and EU membership. Those polled
cited "electricity" and "roads" among the government's most
significant achievements. The ruling National Movement (UNM)
was regarded as the most capable political party in
addressing people's problems, and Saakashvili's approval
rating led all political figures in the poll.


2. (C) Comment: The poll results indicated a patriotic surge
of support and solidarity for the country, its government,
and institutions following the war and in the face of
continuing Russian pressure. Strong support from the
international community appears to have reassured the
Georgian populace, and they continue to look to the West for
support, security, and development. This poll suggests that
the government has an opportunity to pursue its mandate for
democratic reforms and economic growth, which would likely
benefit the country long-term. More immediate influences on
the national mood will be Russia's next actions and how
winter progresses. Suprisingly few respondents raised free
media or the need for more participatory democracy as
priorities for the Government. IRI briefed the results of
the poll to both Government officials and opposition
politicians, both in and outside of the Government. The only
part of the poll not released to political leaders is the
"ballot test" of how many votes each political party would
receive if a vote was held immediately; instead, each party
received only its results for how well it polled with the
public. End Summary.


3. (U) The International Republican Institute (IRI),in
conjunction with The Gallup Organization, conducted a
USAID-funded poll across Georgia from September 23 to October
1, 2008. 1500 adults (age 18 ) were randomly interviewed
face-to-face, and the poll contains a margin of error of
three percent or less. (Note: an electronic version of this
Qthree percent or less. (Note: an electronic version of this
poll has been sent to EUR/CARC. End note.)

Confronting Russian Aggression


4. (SBU) Above all, IRI said the poll shows that Georgians
believed the country was still at war against Russian
aggression. They believed their government was not
responsible for starting the war. These critical points
explain Saakashvili's widespread support and the lack of
support for the non-parliamentary opposition who have called
for his resignatin. His performance during the war was seen
positively by 77 percent of the population, and only nine
percent of Georgians support calls for his resignation at
this time. They believe this would play into Russia's goal
of toppling Saakashvili's government.

Optimism Despite Failures


5. (SBU) The war was seen as the government's biggest
failure, leading ahead of losing the territories of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia and the government crackdown on November 7
last year. 62 percent of people reported a worsening

TBILISI 00001987 002 OF 003


economic picture as well. Still, the country remained
optimistic about the future (76 percent reporting themselves
optimistic versus 18 percent pessimistic). More people said
the country was going in the right direction (47 percent)
than did in February (41 percent).

Confidence in Institutions Rose, Corruption Reported Low



6. (SBU) Confidence in nearly all public institutions has
increased since February. The Georgian Orthodox Church
remained atop the list (with a 92 percent viewing it
favorably). Tied for top place was the Army. The police
increased as well (84 percent citing confidence versus 77
percent in February). Public perceptions of the performance
of both the army and police during the war was high. The
Central Bank (62 percent down from 65) and Education system
(56 down from 58) slipped only a few points from February.
The media basically stayed the same with 72 percent viewing
it favorably (compared to 73 in February). Reports of petty
corruption remained very low, 96 percent of respondents say
they had not had to pay a bribe for any government service or
decision in the previous 12 months. Only 0.7 percent said
they had been asked to pay a one-time bribe.

Domestic Politics, Dialogue, and Internal Stability


7. (SBU) The democratic process remained important in
Georgians' eyes. They expressed the desire for additional
democratic development. 86 percent (up from 84) said an
opposition is important to Georgia's governance. The same
percentage wants to see dialogue between the opposition and
the government. Georgians overwhelmingly wanted internal
stability in the country. Only six percent said that
internal political confrontation would be acceptable now.
Respondents (67 percent versus 18 against) approved the CDM's
decision to enter Parliament after the May election.
Similarly, 60 percent opposed the United Opposition members'
decision to not join Parliament, and only 19 percent
supported it. Those parties that refused to enter Parliament
(Labor, the New Rightists, Conservatives, United Opposition)
have lost public confidence in their ability to solve
problems. And the CDM is now viewed as the second-most
recognizable opposition party (some had previously considered
it pro-government) after the Labor Party (in February they
were fifth).

Separatist Regions More Important than Economy


8. (C) People were asked what should be the top priorities of
the government. Regaining the separatist regions (60 percent
as a first priority) surpassed creating jobs (22 percent),
despite 62 percent of people saying the economic situation
had worsened over the past two months. Integration into EU
and NATO (15 percent) and implementation of reforms (3
percent) followed. The ruling National Movement (UNM) was
seen by 40 percent of respondents as the most capable
political party in addressing people's problems (it was 39
percent in February). 35 percent said they did not know
which party was most capable. Although the CDM earned itself
second place with 5 percent (below its 11 percent in
February),this was ahead of the next closest opposition
party -- Labor with only 2 percent confidence. (Comment:
Again, this indicates that the CDM's constructive engagement
and criticism in Parliament, the media, and the regions is
paying dividends for the new party. End comment.)

Fears Remain, Longing for Territories


9. (SBU) Resumption of war and Russian aggression top he
list of people's fears, followed by the loss of Georgia's
territorial integrity. Georgians (91 percent) said they
Qterritorial integrity. Georgians (91 percent) said they
would never accept Abkhazia's or South Ossetia's independence
(only 4 percent said yes). However, respondents
overwhelmingly said they supported reintegration of the
separatist territories only via peaceful means.

Government Credited with Gaining International Support


10. (SBU) Electricity and roads remained the government's
biggest achievements, although gaining international support
was a new mention. Support for NATO and EU membership was
strong at 86 percent. A majority (54 percent) supported NATO
military bases in Georgia, with 33 percent opposed. Poll
responsdents overwhelmingly appreciated their country's
external relations - Ukraine and the United States topped the
list of favorable relationship ratings at 97 percent each.
France and the EU both received 94 percent favorable ratings.
Lithuania and Germany were 92 percent, Poland was 89
percent, Turkey 88 percent, Azerbaijan 86 percent, Armenia 65

TBILISI 00001987 003 OF 003


percent, and Iran 49 percent. Relations with Russia were
viewed as "bad" by 97 percent of respondents.

Political Leader Ratings


11. (C) The poll again tracked ratings of political leaders,
asking the respondents to rate them favorably or unfavorably.
Topping the list was President Saakashvili (75 percent
favorable and 21 percent not). A surprising second was
Public Defender/Ombudsman Sozar Subari (70 percent favorable,
15 percent unfavorable). As additioNEQQ=QAHwVQc>, CDM leader Giorgi Targamadze tied for third with 70
percent. In descending order of favorable approval ratings
came the following: businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili (65),
former Speaker Nino Burjanadze (63),PM Lado Gurgenidze (57),
Tbilisi Mayor Gigi Ugulava (57),Irakli Okruashvili (56),and
Giorgi Baramidze (53) and parliamentary Speaker David
Bakradze (52). Most opposition members fell somewhat.
Republicans Tina Khidasheli (51) and David Usupashvili (50),
New Rightist David Gamkrelidze (49),Levan Gachechiladze
(45),Koba Davitashvili (44),Kakha Kukava (43),and Shalva
Natelashvili (33) all slipped from their February ratings.
Some ministers improved, including FM Eka Tkeshelashvili
(43),MOIA Vano Merabishvili (33),and Economic Minister Eka
Sharashidze (31). CDM Vice Speaker Levan Vepkhvadze (18
percent favorable and 23 percent unfavorable) was largely
unheard of (44 percent said they did not know the name).
LOGSDON