TBILISI ELECTIONS UPDATE 01/04/2008

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TBILISI 000019

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2008
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM GG
SUBJECT: TBILISI ELECTIONS UPDATE 01/04/2008


Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Opposition--We Won't Back Down
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1. (U) On January 4, DCM, the diplomatic community, and
ODIHR's Ambassador Boden, met with opposition members Levan
Gachechiladze, United Opposition Candidate, Tina Khidasheli,
Republican Party, Salome Zourabichvili, Georgia's Way, and
Kakha Kukava, Conservative Party. The tone of the candidates
suggested they are spoiling for a fight. Gachechiladze was
first to say that the elections have already failed, as the
opposition has had not enough time to campaign, there is no
media to cover them, and widespread intimidation exists.
Khidasheli said the United National Movement some time ago
had filed a permit for the dates January 5-14 to allow them
to have public manifestations at Rike. According to
Khidasheli, the UNM plan is to hold an exit poll, declare
victory, and then celebrate in the streets. When this
occurs, she vowed the United Opposition will also take to the
streets and confront them, saying, "We won't give in on
anything. We will meet them action for action. We know our
country and we won't just let them take it."


2. (C) Khidasheli said the problems on election day will be
at the District Election Commissions (DECs). In contrast to
past elections where she alleged ballot stuffing was used, on
January, she alleges that more sophisticated means will be
used such as carousel voting. All political party
representatives acknowledged that they will trust the ISFED
parallel voter tabulation. All of them dismissed the
validity of an exit poll.


3. (C) Kukava complained bitterly that all concerns the
opposition had raised have been ignored by the
administration. The DCM asked if the opposition has filed
the complaints with the Government's Interagency Task Force,
the body which was designed to address such issues, but
Kukava was vague in his reply.

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Gachechiladze Says Elections Not Fair
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4. (U) On January 4, Levan Gachechiladze made a public
statement that the elections taking place in Georgia are not
free, since the opposition does not have the same access to
resources that Saakashvili has, opposition supporters are
being terrorized, and black PR is being unleashed against the
opposition. Gachechiladze called on the international
community not to close its eyes to this, since the West "does
not need a Georgia where fraudulent elections occur." He
again called on supporters to stand "by each ballot box" and
each precinct to ensure victory and save Georgia.

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January 6 Plans
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5. (U) According to news sources on January 4, the United
Opposition is calling for a public rally on January 6 to
directly announce to the public the results of vote results.
Kakha Kukava said he does not trust the media to be accurate
in the announcement of the results, and therefore, will hold
a public forum to announce the results. A Tbilisi
municipality contact told us privately that the opposition
had applied for a permit to demonstrate from 0500 on January
6 through January 12 from Rike park to Rustaveli Avenue.
According to news sources on January 4, the opposition has
been denied the permit to hold a rally for the above dates on
the grounds that the paperwork was not submitted on time. We
also understand the National Movement has requested a permit
to rally at Freedom Square on January 6. The law states that
such requests should be filed five days prior to the
beginning of the event.

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Patriarch Plans Christmas Procession
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6. (U) According to news sources on January 4, the
Patriarch is organizing a Christmas procession for January 7,
Orthodox Christmas, as part of its annual activities, on
Rustaveli Avenue, the likely site of election demonstrations.

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Imedi Films on Election Day
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7. (U) Vladimir Voronov, President of News Media Russia and

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a close associate of Badri Patarkatsishvili, is currently in
Tbilisi working with Lewis Robertson, News Corp Caucasus CEO
and Imedi General Manager, to try to assemble a staff and get
Imedi back on the air at the soonest possible moment. The
journalists who left Imedi are unwilling to return, and most
other journalists are also unwilling to work under the
current circumstances. Voronov was trying to assemble a
staff and restart broadcasting before the election.
Journalists were concerned that Patarkatsishvili would use
Imedi to orchestrate protests. Robertson does not feel that
it will be possible to start broadcasting before January 7,
but wants Imedi to play a role in reporting on the aftermath
of the election.


8. (U) One large group of former Imedi investigative
journalists now plan to form an NGO and to work as an
independent studio to produce stories. They will make a deal
with Prime Time Media and the government which will permit
them to control the content of the reporting, the government
will guarantee placement of the product, and they will be
able to use the Primetime (TBC) equipment. Their wish is
eventually to get grants to have their own independent radio.
Imedi will have camera crews taking footage on Election Day
for their archives.

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CEC Promises Prompt Posting of Results
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9. (U) According to the Chairman of the Election Commission
(CEC),the release of official results will be posted by 2000
on Sunday, January 6. The CEC is required to release the
final results, according to the electoral code, on Sunday,
January 13.

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INTERAGENCY TASK FORCE
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10. (C) On January 3, DCM and other members of the
diplomatic community met with the Interagency Task Force to
discuss election issues. Eka Zguladze, Deputy Minister,
Ministry of Internal Affairs, said that they continue to
actively investigate cases which are linked to election
infractions. She cited that two public servants in Adjara
have been fired for misuse of administration resources, one
policeman was issued a warning for his activism while on
duty, and heavy handed United National Movement activists
have been reprimanded. Currently, there are 25 criminal
cases linked to illegal election activity including three
kidnapping cases. Zguladze said that MOIA needs more
information to pursue cases, and in most instances, the
complaints they receive are too general and are without
specific details.


11. (C) Eka Tkeshelashvili, Minister of Justice, said that
in the present polarized environment, emotions are running
high and the smallest incident is blown out of proportion.
She said she spends more time dealing with perceptions than
reality. She cited a recent example from David Usupashvili.
Usupashvili alleged that a group of his activists had been
illegally stopped by the police in Kutaisi during a rally and
that he would provide to MOIA actual video footage to
validate his charge. Tkeshelashvili said that she has never
received the video footage. When she checked she learned
that the alleged infraction was nothing more than a policeman
requesting a bus load of the activists to move because it was
blocking traffic, but that the small incident had been
somehow dramatized into something much more.


12. (C) With regards to police plans for Election Day,
Zguladze said that the MOIA has no preventive plans, only
reactive ones. Now that the opposition plans to have their
activists outside the precincts, she didn't want to compound
the problem by having additional overt police presence to
antagonize the situation. Her biggest fear is that the
United National Movement and the United Opposition activists
will both take to the streets on the day after the elections,
thereby placing the police in the awkward position of being
in the middle of two opposing forces.


13. (C) Zguladze said the MOIA hotline has received 640
calls, 512 of which were complaints about the voter's list,
31 which were general election questions, and the remainder
were calls which were not election related. The number of
complaints they had been receiving about voters being asked
for their identification numbers have significantly dropped.
The ones which have been received recently can be linked to
either CEC efforts to verify voter information, activists
attempting to clarify their support base, or the government
office requesting the information for verification of

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financial disclosure.


14. (C) Tkeshelashvili said claims of abuse of
administrative resources by the United National Movement's
(UNM) use of two government helicopters are without merit.
The UNM paid for both of these services and have provided the
contracts as evidence of this fact.

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Badri-He's Back
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15. (U) On January 3, Badri Patarkatsishvili announced that
he will not withdraw his candidacy from the presidential
elections scheduled for January 5th. He cited his change of
heart to a telephone conversation with the Georgian Patriarch
Ilia II. In response, the Patriarch released a statement
refuting earlier information disseminated by
Patarkatsishvili's Office to the effect that
Patarkatsishvili's decision to run was inspired by his
conversation with the Patriarch. The Patriarch's speaker
said that the only subject of the conversation was
congratulations on the 30th anniversary of the Patriarch's
enthronement. The Patriarch's speaker expressed concern that
the church was used for political speculations.


16. (U) On January 3, Goga Zhvania resigned as
Patarkatsishvili's campaign manager in protest of
Patarkatsishvili's reversing directions and rejoining the
race. On January 4, Patarkatsishvili made a televised
statement in which he said, "The election campaign in Georgia
is becoming more and more similar to the election campaign in
Pakistan, still with one difference--no candidate for the
highest office has yet been killed in Georgia, although the
request for assassination was placed with terrorists."

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VOTING IN GALI
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17. (U) According to news sources on January 3, Abkhaz de
facto government set on fire houses of several ethnic
Georgians who openly intend to participate in the elections
and support Saakashvili. According to Georgian sources,
several dozen Georgians have been detained by the Abkhaz
police. De facto Abkhaz foreign minister Shamba said during
a telephone interview with the press on the subject that, "If
Georgians want to vote in Georgia, they should go live
there." Contrary to some media reports, UNOMIG has verified
that the administrative borders in Gali are not closed and
there is freedom of movement to permit voting.

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Intimidation in Marneuli
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18. (C) In a December 31 meeting with DCM and two other
representatives from the diplomatic community, Tina
Khidasheli and Kakha Kukava alleged wide-spread intimidation
of voters by the local Gamgebeli (mayor's office.) As
evidence of their claims, they brought with them 12 witnesses
from Marneuli and Rustavi. The witnesses alleged that they
had either been fired or were threatened with the possibility
of being fired if they did not support the National Movement.

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Protests
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19. (U) On December 29, about 5,000 people gathered at
Rike, an open area in downtown Tbilisi, in support of Levan
Gachechiladze, the nine-party opposition coalition
presidential candidate. The United Opposition alleges the
authorities are planning to rig the elections and that the
United Opposition will not tolerate such an action. The
rally promoted the theme that voters must protect their votes.

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Maisashvili Campaign Seeks Middle Ground
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20. (SBU) We met December 28 with Giorgi Gaganidze, campaign
manager for Giorgi Maisashvili, a former ally and economic
advisor to Saakashvili, who is one of the lesser-known
presidential candidates. Gaganidze raised many of the same
concerns about administrative resources as other opposition
campaigns, and complained that Maisashvili was particularly
disadvantaged because his new party was not considered to
meet the requirements for state financing -- and therefore
did not get free air time as most other campaigns have.
Despite his objections to the pre-election process, Gaganidze

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stressed that his campaign was the only one that could
conceivably "legitimize" a Saakashvili victory by accepting
it, something he was sure other opposition campaigns would
never do.




TEFFT