GEORGIAN ELECTION AND AFTERMATH: THE GOG ESTIMATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L TBILISI 000017

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR DAS BRYZA, EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/04/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIAN ELECTION AND AFTERMATH: THE GOG ESTIMATE
OF THE THREAT AND PLAN FOR DEALING WITH IT


Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) In recent meetings, Prosecutor General (PG) Adeishvili
and key officials at the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MoIA)
have expressed serious concerns about security on election
day and opposition protests after the election. Having
uncovered Patarkatsishvili,s coup plot, the MoIA has taken
steps to respond to the threat. But the threat remains. The
PG said the level of risk from Patarkatsishvili depends on
how much cash he can smuggle into the country to buy
agitators. The Georgians are aware of attempts by
Patarkatsishvili to establish many small accounts at banks
around the country at amounts below the National Bank of
Georgia,s requirement to report cash transactions. The PG
said he knows of withdrawals from existing Patarkatsishvili
accounts, but believes the cash available will be much less
than Patarkatsishvili had planned for. But the PG said
Patarkatsishvili,s supporters are not the only ones they are
worried about. He said the MoIA has credible evidence that
supporters of the United Opposition candidate, Gachecheladze,
plan to have weapons and Molotov cocktails available for use
after the election.


2. (C) MoIA officials have said their first worry is
security of polling stations on election day. With 3,400
precincts spread across the country, the MoIA doesn,t have
enough police to protect them all. In his secretly taped
conversation with MoIA official Kodua, Patarkatsishvili laid
out his scheme to ruin the election on January 5 by having
agitators interfere with polling stations. The call by
opposition leaders yesterday for supporters to gather outside
of polling stations on election day has increased concern by
the MoIA. The MoIA admits the polling stations are
vulnerable. Their plan is to have police units poised to
react to trouble at the precincts rather than try to take
preventative measures, so as not to inadvertently provoke
confrontations.


3. (C) The MoIA,s next worry is concurrent rallies
beginning on January 6 that could lead to clashes between
supporters of different factions, with the police caught in
the middle. Opposition leaders have fed this concern by
declaring that if the United National Movement (UNM)
celebrates by public gatherings immediately after the
election, they will call their supporters to the streets to
protest. Both the UNM and the opposition have requested
permits for rallies following the elections: UNM to take
place at Freedom Square and the opposition starting at Rike
Park across the river and continuing to Freedom Square.


4. (C) There is plenty of talk in Tbilisi about how many
supporters the opposition parties can bring to the streets to
protest the elections, motivated either by greed or by
principle, and whether they will be armed. The MoIA will
have a better idea once they see what happens and judge the
temperature on election day. The PG estimates the opposition
will have far fewer protesters than the 50,000 who came out
for the November 2 demonstrations, but even 20,000 determined
protesters can pose a serious threat. As a Deputy Minister
told us yesterday, the MoIA is hoping for the best but
preparing for the worst.


5. (C) The MoIA has a more thoughtful plan and is better
equipped now than in early November. They have equipped the
police with modern riot gear and acquired armored personnel
carriers in case the police need protection from firearms and
Molotov cocktails. We have heard the plan involves putting
police inside government buildings while leaving the
demonstrators free to carry out peaceful protests on the
streets. If the protestors try to storm buildings or resort
to violence, the police will respond quickly to disburse the
demonstrations. The PG told us they will not allow a street
mob to overthrow the government and will take whatever steps
are necessary to enforce the results of the election.


6. (C) Comment: The attitude of opposition leaders has
grown more defensive, aggressive and combative as the
election has approached. They seem to recognize that
Saakashvili will likely win, are frustrated and spoiling for
a fight. If Saakashvili wins, all sides expect rallies and
protests starting on January 6. The extreme political
polarization and high emotions of the people make a
combustible mix. Meanwhile, a major snowstorm has descended
on the country and the snow is forecast to continue through
Sunday, January 6. The snow not only will decrease voter
turnout but will dampen the enthusiasm of demonstrators. The
weather combined with Orthodox Christmas on January 7, will
hopefully reduce or at least delay the threat of violence.
End Comment.
TEFFT