Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08TBILISI152
2008-01-31 14:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tbilisi
Cable title:  

REPUBLICANS VOTE FOR SEPARATE PARLIAMENTARY

Tags:  PREL PGOV PHUM GG 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSI #0152/01 0311447
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 311447Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY TBILISI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8769
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000152 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA, AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM GG
SUBJECT: REPUBLICANS VOTE FOR SEPARATE PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTION PARTY LIST

REF: TBILISI 125

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000152

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA, AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM GG
SUBJECT: REPUBLICANS VOTE FOR SEPARATE PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTION PARTY LIST

REF: TBILISI 125

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: On January 30, opposition leader and
Republican Party Chairman David Usupashvili told the
Ambassador that the Republican party will not join the United
National Council of Opposition (UNC) on a joint party list
for the coming parliamentary elections. Former presidential
candidate, MP Levan Gachechiladze, asked the Republicans to
stay with the UNC and join the UNC party list, but the
Republicans decided to run on their own. Usupashvili
acknowledged the risk of the decision. He expects criticism
from UNC members and President Saakashvili's supporters
alike. In the end, Usupashvili said his party could not
continue to pursue the one-track agenda put forth by some
members of the UNC, which consists simply of getting rid of
Saakashvili. End Summary.


2. (C) On January 30, opposition leader and Republican party
Chairman David Usupashvili told the Ambassador that his party
will not join the UNC on a joint party list for the coming
parliamentary elections. Usupashvili said this was a
difficult, risky decision for his party. They are not
severing all of their ties or participation with the UNC.
However, the Republicans felt they could neither uphold their
party's values nor pursue its future by being tied to the UNC
party list during the election. Usupashvili said his party
believes the UNC needs stronger leadership. He said they are
unsure if UNC leader and former presidential candidate, MP
Levan Gachechiladze, can "keep the UNC together."


3. (C) Gachechiladze had encouraged the Republicans, and
specifically Usupashvili, to stay with the UNC. The UNC
offered the Republicans 12 spots of the first 50 for the
UNC's party list. Usupashvili told the Ambassador that the
Republicans have around 5 percent support in the country. In
a best-case scenario they can reach out to disaffected voters
that previously supported Saakashvili and win up to 15
percent of the vote. Usupashvili said that his party is also
prepared for the worst, whereby they would not gain 5 percent

of the vote and lose all representation in Parliament.
(Note: For the parliamentary election, 100 of 150 seats will
be assigned by party list. In a nationwide vote, whereby a
voter can select one party, the parties which receive more
than 5 percent of the popular vote will be assigned a
corresponding number of seats to the percentage they receive.
Each party submits a party list in advance, whereby their MP
candidates are rank-ordered how they will fill seats won in
the election. End note.)


4. (C) Usupashvili expects that members of the UNC will
harshly criticize the Republicans for not running on the UNC
party list. He also anticipates the media and ruling
National Movement (UNM) will present this as a huge split in
the opposition and use the attention to press the UNM's
political advantage. He said some people may explain the
split by calling the Republicans "a tool" of the USG. He
thought that news of the Republican decision may get out
before he departs for Washington, DC on February 2.


5. (C) In the end, Usupashvili said his party could not
continue to pursue the one-track agenda put forth by some
members of the UNC. Their focus on obtaining two-thirds of
Parliament and ousting Saakashvili is contrary to his party's
vision of Georgian government. Still, Usupashvili
acknowledged that challenges remain. He believes that if the
parliamentary election is truly fair, no party will end up
with more than 50 seats (of the 150 total.) Usupashvili
continues to hope that Parliamentary Speaker Burjanadze can
develop more independence from the UNM, as this would help
ease the transition toward a Parliament and government no
longer dominated by only one party. However, Usupashvili
noted that key members of the UNM are threatened by any loss
of power, and Burjanadze is not strong enough yet to make her
own way.


6. (C) In a brief update on the status of negotiations that
he has been leading (reftel) with Burjanadze, Usupashvili
said that no meetings were scheduled, but he would see her
the night of January 30. Usupashvili said it would be clear
by January 31 which of the opposition's demands the UNM would
agree to, what they would not, and where there was room for
negotiation. Usupashvili said that some negotiations would
be harder now, due to public rhetoric used by both the
opposition and the UNM. He said that the negotiations will
likely require international help to ensure follow-through.
He also warned that he expected there to be opposition
demonstrations beginning on February 15, and would continue
indefinitely, if the negotiations with the government have

TBILISI 00000152 002 OF 002


not concluded.

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Comment
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7. (C) This is the first (expected) fissure of the UNC. Time
will tell whether the UNC can survive as an opposition force
after the departure of one of its largest (and most moderate)
component parties. Usupashvili has privately confided to us
over the past two months the serious misgivings within the
Republican party (as well as his own) over being so closely
allied with much more radical parties. The Republican party
decision will now force other members of the opposition to
decide with whom they will ally for the elections. They will
no longer be able to ride on the Republicans' coattails as
many had undoubtedly planned.
TEFFT