THE CASE FOR INTENTIONAL TARGETING OF GEORGIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 001404

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CARC, TASKFORCE-1, INR/SPM, EEB/ESC/ISC AND E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2018
TAGS: EPET ENRG PREL MOPS GG RU
SUBJECT: THE CASE FOR INTENTIONAL TARGETING OF GEORGIA
PIPELINE BY RUSSIA

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft, reason 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: After visiting the site of the August 9 and
August 12 Russian bombings of the Western Route (Baku-Supsa)
pipeline, the Embassy believes a reasonable case can be made
that the bombings were intentional. Three lines of craters
cross the pipeline, and one missile, reportedly an SS-26
equipped to do damage to underground structures, hit nearby.
The orientation of the bomb attack indicates it did not
target military objects in the wider area around the
pipeline. We recommend that aerial photos of the area be
compared to the photos provided by the Georgian Government
(emailed to EUR DAS Bryza, EUR/CARC and the Task Force) and
the first-hand account that follows to help in analysis of
the attack. End Summary.


2. (C) On August 19 Emboff visited the site of the Russian
bombs and missile that fell on the Western Route (Baku-Supsa)
oil pipeline. The site is between kilometer markers 25 and
27 of the pipeline (measured from the Azeri border) in the
open country east of Rustavi. Vaziani military base is over
some hills about four kilometers to the north. There is also
the base,s airfield and a long-abandoned, ruined Soviet base
in the area.


3. (C) While Emboff is not an expert in analysis of bomb
craters, we believe a reasonable case can be made that the
Russians were intending to hit the pipeline. Aerial pictures
of the area would show clearly the location of the craters
vis a vis the pipeline and the military base and assist in
analysis.


4. (C) Emboff's observation indicates that there were three
lines of bombing that occurred on August 9, all north-south,
nearly perpendicular to the line of the pipeline. In
addition, a missile that the MOIA has identified as an SS-26
Iskander ground to ground missile landed in the vicinity of
kilometer 27 of the pipeline on August 12 and scattered two
or three large bomblets or fragments around the site of its
initial landing point.


5. (C) Most of the bomb craters are about 10 meters in
diameter and between 2-3 meters deep. The pipeline is buried
1.5-2 meters deep and is not visible, although jeep tracks
run along it at various distances from it. It appears the
bombs were dropped nearly exactly vertically on the ground,
but by the way the soil was heaped up in some craters it
appears the line of attack was from the north. The first
line of craters is 25 meters east of kilometer marker 25.
Seven or eight craters begin about 100 meters or more to the
north, cross the pipeline and end about 100 meters or more
south of it. A second line of craters starts about 50 meters
south of the pipeline and heads off to the hills on the
southern horizon. A third line begins north of the pipeline
just east of the 26 kilometer marker, crosses the pipeline
and continues south. The rim of one of the craters in that
line is only one meter from the course of the pipeline, and
the bottom is quite deep, maybe three meters. There may in
fact be damage to the pipeline that has not yet be
ascertained at that point. However, the pipeline is not
operating now.


6. (C) The Iskander missile hit the ground about 25 meters
east of the pipeline (which turns north at kilometer 26).
The MOIA took away the main body of the missile, but Emboff
was told that the trajectory indicated it was fired from
the south, probably from a Russian base in Armenia. The MOIA
believes the missile was equipped with a "volume
detonated" element that is intended for destroying
underground installations.


7. (C) We recognize that an argument could be made that the
attacks were failed runs at the military base to the north
or the airfield. However, the line of the bomb craters does
not line up with the axis of the airfield. The military
base, four kilometers to the north, is really a field for
tank exercises. It is over a range of high hills and
completely out of sight of the pipeline and the craters. We
estimate that either three planes, or one plane making
three runs, did the damage. All attackers would have to be
mistaken at the same time. Also, if the planes did come
from the north, they would have had to seriously over-fly the
military base before dropping their ordnance. Aerial
photos would be helpful to display the facts on the ground.


8. (C) A counter-argument is that the Russians have
controlled large parts of the same pipeline in other areas
and have
not yet damaged it, to our knowledge. The existence of the
low-value military targets in the area also raises the

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possibility of a targeting error.
TEFFT