GEORGIA: SITREP 14 - THE WAITING GAME CONTINUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 001403

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC AND TASKFORCE-1

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON GG RU
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: SITREP 14 - THE WAITING GAME CONTINUES

REF: TBILISI 1372

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary: Faint and uncertain signs of a Russian
withdrawal are reported, but there is as yet no unmistakable
sign of a pullback. Russian troops attempted August 19 to
oust Georgian soldiers from a base in Western Georgia, to
which the Georgians had retreated in conformity with the
six-point agreement, but did not press on August 20 after the
Georgians refused entry. The OSCE Chairman in office arrives
in Tbilisi August 21, and is expected to have two of the new
20 monitors with him; the rest will be on the ground within
ten days. More than one hundred civilians are reported to be
held hostage in Tskhinvali, and the Russians seized 20 or
more Georgian soldiers in Poti at the same time an exchange
of all known prisoners took place outside Gori on August 19.
Returned Georgian prisoners alleged mistreatment by their
captors. The GOG is reporting that 215 Georgians have been
killed in the conflict and 1469 wounded. A UNHCR convoy was
allowed to enter Gori today, accompanied by the UN High
Commissioner for Refugees and the German Ambassador. A U.S.
citizen journalist was detained in Gori August 19 and held
overnight by Russian troops and released without incident;
four Amcit photographers were also detained for several hours
in Gori August 20 by Russian troops before being released.
Georgians confronted Russian troops in peaceful protests at
checkpoints on the way to Gori and in Senaki. Opposition
Georgian politicians are doing their best to hold back
criticism of President Saakashvili, with some success. A
recent poll shows the president with about 2/3 support in
Tbilisi. End Summary.

RUSSIANS STILL ACTIVE, FEW SIGNS OF A PULLOUT
--------------


2. (C) Evidence of the beginning of a Russian pullout of
Georgia is equivocal to say the least. Russian troops are
reported to have removed two checkpoints from the town of
Gori, possibly the beginning of a pull back. Two checkpoints
remain on the north side of the town. A UNHCR humanitarian
aid convoy, led by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees and
including the German Ambassador, was permitted to enter Gori
by Russian troops. They met with the mayor and report that
there are few people in the city. However, damage is limited
to a few small areas of the city. Five U.S. citizen
journalists were detained by Russian troops in Gori in two
separate incidents. All were released unharmed. Explosions
were heard on August 20 from the military base in Osiari,
apparently as base infrastructure was neutralized. UNOMIG
has told the Embassy that Russian troops are still moving
freely about in Western Georgia.


3. (SBU) On August 19, Georgian police prevented a Russian
column from entering the Sachkere military base in Western
Georgia. The Russian commander threatened to return and use
force to enter the base, but no reports of any forceful
action have been received as of noon on August 20. Georgian
troops had regrouped at the base, assuming they were in
conformity with the six-point agreement. The Georgian MFA
regards the attempt to oust the troops from the base as a
provocation and a violation of the agreement. It protested
the continued "entering of cities, destroying military and
civilian infrastructure, looting and robbing peaceful
populations, dropping firebombs on forests, blowing up
bridges, establishing new illegal checkpoints on highways,
etc."


4. (SBU) The Georgian Orthodox church reported on August 19
that the Gori-Samtvisi Eparchy was raided by Russians and/or
Ossetians. The Archbishop's car, cellphone was stolen and
other priests in Gori had property taken from them. A bomb
is reported to have hit the Nikozi Eparchy. Nuns were forced
to leave convents in the Kodori Gorge and in Akhalgori in
South Ossetia.

MORE HOSTAGES AND POW'S TAKEN
--------------


5. (SBU) Georgian soldiers released by the Russians
yesterday in the prisoner exchange say they were tortured.
Doctors who examined them found signs of beatings with blunt
objects on the head and chest, burns and other bruises.
Meanwhile, reports are that the Georgians taken prisoner by
the Russians in Poti number about 20, and that they have been
taken to Senaki. The governor of Samegrelo and the mayor of
Poti are negotiating with the Russian commanders to secure
their release.


6. (U) A journalist for the UK's Guardian newspaper reports
that the number of Georgians held hostage in Tskhinvali is

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now 131, including some women and a 12-year-old girl.

TOLL OF GEORGIAN CASUALTIES
--------------


7. (U) According to the chairman of the parliamentary
committee for defense and security, 215 Georgians have been
killed in the conflict with Russia. Sixty-nine of them are
civilians, 133 are military personnel, including four
reservists and thirteen Ministry of Interior troops. Seventy
soldiers are missing. He reports that 1,469 people have been
injured of whom 446 are still in the hospital.

OSCE MONITORS NUMBER AND DEPLOYMENT UNCERTAIN
--------------


8. (C) Existing OSCE monitors have gotten permission to
enter Tskhinvali from the Russian commander there. However,
the head of the mission told us that she will not be sending
observers into South Ossetia until she has assurances from
the Russians that the monitors will be safe. OSCE Chairman
in Office, Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb, will
arrive in Tbilisi on August 21, and is expected to be
accompanied by the first two of the additional 20 monitors
authorized by the OSCE on August 19. Officers at OSCE's
Tbilisi office report that the 20 monitors are expected to be
on the ground in Tbilisi in the next ten days. Monitors will
initially work out of Tbilisi for the first 2-4 weeks. Once
additional monitors arrive (from the additional 80 monitors
expected) and if the security situation allows, OSCE hopes to
set up a base in Gori and eventually, in Tskhinvali.

PROTESTERS CONFRONT THE OCCUPIERS
--------------


9. (U) The press reported that Georgian students, young
people, trade unionists and businessmen protested the Russian
occupation at the checkpoint in Igoeti on the road from
Tbilisi to Gori. They faced off against Russian soldiers,
who were backed up by a tank. The message was that Georgians
will not be intimidated by the Russians. Another
demonstration by 3000 protesters took place in Senaki near
the Russian-occupied military base.

DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITIES
--------------


10. (U) British Foreign Secretary David Miliband arrived in
Tbilisi on August 19 from the NATO ministerial in Brussels.
In a press conference he expressed the UK's support for
Georgia and its people. Earlier, in Brussels, he termed the
Russian occupation a violation of international law. A
delegation from the Council of Europe and the European
Parliament arrived on a fact-finding mission the same day.


11. (SBU) A French Embassy representative is continuously
monitoring six Russian battalions between Zugdidi and Senaki.
Senators Lieberman and Lindsay Graham, accompanied by Rep
Chris Smith, are in Tbilisi August 20, meeting with President
Saakashvili and the Prime Minister. They will also visit an
IDP shelter in Tbilisi and observe the off-loading of a U.S.
military humanitarian assistance flight. The Senators will
depart Tbilisi the same day; Rep. Smith plans to remain in
Tbilisi to support the repatriation of several American
citizen minors who are unable to get back to Tbilisi because
of continued Russian troop movements on the main highway.

AMCIT ARRESTED, EXPELLED FROM GORI
--------------


12. (C) An American journalist (representing a San Diego,
California newspaper) who had found his way into Gori was
arrested and held by the Russians overnight on August 19-20.
He was released and returned to Tbilisi on August 20 after
intervention by Embassy Moscow. The journalist was not
abused or mistreated. On August 21, a group of four U.S.
citizen photographers were detained by Russian troops in
Gori. They were released without incident after several
hours and were in the process of returning to Tbilisi.

POST-INVASION POLITICKING SLOWLY BEGINS
--------------


13. (U) Former Speaker of Parliament Nino Burjanadze
publicly criticized President Saakashvili in a Reuters
interview on August 18. She said the government will face
"tough questions" about what led to the conflict with Russia.
She promised to play an active political role after the
crisis abates. Burjanadze had formerly been closely allied
with Saakahsvili. Opposition leader Levan Gachechiladze
talked to the Financial Times about the need for new

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elections as soon as possible. However, he and other
opposition politicians later called for a moratorium on
confrontation with the government until after the Russians
leave Georgia. For the moment, a GORBI telephone poll shows
Saakashvili's popularity is higher than it has been, as 69
percent of Tbilisi residents approve of how he is handling
his job. A majority still favor Georgia's NATO membership.
Eighty-five percent are holding on to a favorable view of
Western countries.
TEFFT