Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08TBILISI1327
2008-08-04 14:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tbilisi
Cable title:  

GEORGIANS SEEK CALM IN SOUTH OSSETIA AND ARE

Tags:  PGOV PREL RS GG 
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VZCZCXRO5464
PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSI #1327/01 2171417
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 041417Z AUG 08 ZDK PER YOUR RUEHMO #4236
FM AMEMBASSY TBILISI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9848
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 001327 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL RS GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIANS SEEK CALM IN SOUTH OSSETIA AND ARE
PUZZLED BY RUSSIAN MFA ACTIONS

REF: A. TBILISI 1317

B. TBILISI 1161

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 001327

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL RS GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIANS SEEK CALM IN SOUTH OSSETIA AND ARE
PUZZLED BY RUSSIAN MFA ACTIONS

REF: A. TBILISI 1317

B. TBILISI 1161

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Begin Summary and Comment: On the evening of 1
August sniper activity erupted around South Ossetian villages
and soon expanded into mortar fire which continued until the
morning of 2 August when events calmed. OSCE military
monitors said that the use of mortars by both sides and the
range of the shelling, usually confined to the
Southwest/Southeast of Tskhinvali spread on these dates from
the Northeast to Southwest of Tskhinvali. Such wide-scale
fighting has not been seen since 2004. It is unclear who
initiated the preliminary volleys, as well the number and
types of casualties who were affected by it. During the
weekend's events, the Saakashvili administration remained
level-headed, with President Saakashvili and State Minister
for Reintegration Temuri Yakobashvili assuring Acting Russian
Foreign Minister Denisov that the Georgians had no intentions
of resuming hostilities and requesting Denisov speak with de
facto South Ossetian leader Kokoity to dial down the
rhetoric. Denisov agreed, but on the following day the
Russian MFA reversed course and issued a statement about
imminent war, Kokoity announced evacuation of South
Ossetians, and Abkhaz de facto leader Bagapsh talked about
not going to Berlin for talks on the Abkhaz-Georgian
conflict. Tensions have been rising for the last couple of
weeks in South Ossetia, due to the assassination attempt on
Sanakoyev (ref A) and a double IED attack on August 1 (ref
B),but the Ministry of Interior has denied the Georgians
mounted a retaliatory strike which began this weekend's
firefight. OSCE expects to release its official report of the
events which occurred August 1-2 on Monday August 4. End
Summary and Comment.

Fog of Battle
--------------


2. (C) Sniper fire began at 1800 on Friday August 1 in
South Ossetia and grew into what became an all-night
firefight 20 minutes later, with Georgia and South Ossetia
sides using mortars, until 0700 on Saturday August 2 when
events calmed. Earlier Friday there were casualties on the
by-pass road due to two IEDs (ref B). Although OSCE military

observers cannot pinpoint who initiated the opening volleys
of the firefight, President Saakashvili told Ambassador that
the shelling that took place early Saturday morning was
started by the Ossetians. They had shelled a Georgian
village. Initially the Georgians had not responded, but
after a second village was shelled, Georgian MOIA troops had
returned fire. The Georgians report the death of one
policeman and ten wounded, and the Ossetians claim six dead
and 13-15 wounded. It is still unclear if those who were
wounded were militia or noncombatants. The use of mortars
can cause indiscriminate deaths as they cannot be employed
with precision accuracy.

Russian MFA--We'll "Shut-Up" Kokoity
--------------


3. (C) President Saakashvili called the Ambassador at 1830
on Saturday August 2 to express his personal concern over the
Ossetian evacuation from Tskhinvali, and to make sure U.S .
officials understood that Georgia did not want further
conflict. He reiterated that Georgian forces had stood down
and did not want to initiate hostilities. They had conveyed
this message to the Ossetians through every channel they
could. Saakashvili was particularly upset by what he deemed
to be a reversal of Russian policy from Saturday August 2 to
Sunday August 3. On Saturday August 2 Russian Deputy Foreign
Minister Denisov had talked to Georgian Deputy Foreign
Minister Vashadze and both sides agreed to work to prevent
further violence. Saakashvili said that Denisov said that if
the Georgians undertook not to resume fighting, "We will shut
Kokoity up." This agreed strategy had worked and there was
no violence from Saturday until Sunday. A moderate statement
had been issued by the Russian MFA.

The Russian Tone Changes
--------------


4. (C) Then on Sunday August 3 the Russian tone changed.
The South Ossetians started evacuating inhabitants from
Tskhinvali, the Russian MFA issued a shrill statement
claiming war was imminent, Abkhaz de facto leader Bagapsh
announced he would not go to Berlin to meet with Georgians on
resolving the Abkhaz conflict, and Russian television implied
war was about to break out. There were those on the Georgian
side who feared that Russia might be trying to instigate a

TBILISI 00001327 002 OF 002


conflict, and had suggested Georgia mobilize. Saakashvili
told the Ambassador that he had decided not to do that, for
fear it would play into the hands of those wanting war. That
said, Saakashvili wondered what the Russian game was. He did
not think Russia wanted war, but was the action in South
Ossetia being used to justify some further Russian military
move in Abkhazia? Was the weekend violence stimulated by
Kokoity and his Russian security advisors led by de facto
Minister of Defense Mindzaev, or was there some larger
Russian plan unfolding? He asked the Ambassador for any
information U.S. intelligence might have on the situation,
particularly anything which could explain Russian motives.

Something Is Rotten in Moscow
--------------


5. (C) The Ambassador called Saakashvili later in the
evening on Sunday to brief him in general terms on EUR
Assistant Secretary Fried,s telephone conversation with
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Karasin. Saakashvili was
grateful for U.S. efforts to calm the situation. He returned
again to the question of Russian motivation. Did they want
war, or were they just reacting to Kokoity and Mindzaev? He
made clear that the weekend,s violence had started with the
IED attack on Georgian police on the bypass road to Georgian
villages on Friday morning August 1. Saakashvili said he had
been told that the Ossetians had fired 500 shells at the
Georgian villages, which his experts calculated cost $3.5
million dollars. There was some damage but the villagers
would pull through. Again, Saakashvili asked who authorized
this shelling and who is going to pay for it?

Georgian Economy: Butter, Not Guns
--------------


6. (C) Saakashvili closed with two additional points.
First, the Georgians did not target civilians in Ossetia as
the Ossetians and Russian television were claiming. The
Georgians understood that only South Ossetian militia were
killed in the early Saturday firing. Second, Saakashvili
said he wanted Washington to know that he recognizes this
kind of violence is a strong disincentive for businessmen to
invest in Georgia. News about the violence flies around
quickly via the wire services and the internet. Georgia does
not need nor want such violence, because it needs more
foreign direct investment. He said that the Georgian
government had recently reduced its GDP projection for
calendar year 2008 from 10 percent to 8 percent growth. More
violence in the separatist regions will only exacerbate the
economic problems for Georgia.

Fresh Look on a Monday
--------------


7. (C) Ryan Grist, Deputy Chief of the OSCE in Tbilisi,
told Poloff on Monday August 4 that it appeared that Yuri
Popov, Russian Chief Negotiator for South Ossetia, would be
returning by week's end. Grist was encouraged that
Yakobashvili's offer to meet with South Ossetian counterparts
had not been refused. Grist discounted that the
"evacuations," some still underway in the early morning of
August 4, were related to the weekend's events. He said also
that there are no indications that the Georgians are
reinforcing their positions or bringing in additional heavy
weaponry out of the ordinary, but opined there has been less
control of reinforcement by both sides in the last months due
to the lack of JCC talks. Grist did say that OSCE monitors
are on the look-out for outsiders from the Northern Caucasus,
as their appearance could be a bad omen of things to come.
The OSCE report of the weekend's events is expected to be
released on Monday August 4. Dmitri Manjavidze, Georgia's
Chief Negotiator for the JCC, told Poloff that the exodus of
busloads of women and children were planned four months ago
as part of a normal August ritual in South Ossetia and this
was being politicized in light of the past weekend's events.

TEFFT