DAS BRYZA'S JANUARY 19 MEETING WITH GEORGIAN PRIME

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 000116

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CARC, EEB/ESC/ISC AND INL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ETRD ENRG KCRM USTR GG RU
SUBJECT: DAS BRYZA'S JANUARY 19 MEETING WITH GEORGIAN PRIME
MINISTER GURGENIDZE

REF: TBILISI 3098

TBILISI 00000116 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft, reason 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (S) Summary: In a January 19 meeting with Georgian Prime
Minister Lado Gurgenidze, EUR DAS Matthew Bryza said that
following Embassy Tbilisi's extensive review, the USG did not
agree with opposition claims that massive fraud occurred or
skewed the outcome of the January 5 presidential election,
but did find there were serious irregularities which should
be corrected before the parliamentary elections this spring.
Gurgenidze promised the GOG will make improvements in
election procedures. The Prime Minister expressed concern
about Russian recognition of Abkhazia's independence after
Kosovo's independence is recognized by the United States and
other countries. He agreed with Bryza that vigorous
diplomacy is needed to demonstrate to Russia it would be
isolated were it to recognize Abkhazia. Bryza suggested that
in any event, the focus of Georgia's friends in their
Abkhazia diplomacy should shift to the bigger question of how
to resolve the conflict. Gurgenidze said that Georgia is
going to change its energy policy, and to reserve use of
cheaper gas it receives for pipeline transit from Azerbaijan
and Russia to supply residential customers and power
generation. Industrial customers will have to pay the price
demanded for gas, and the economy will have to absorb the
shock. He expressed concern about the security implications
of the upcoming transfer from Georgia of an Iranian arms
dealer to the United States for prosecution. He also told
Bryza that Georgia intends to pursue Badri Patarkatishvili
and his assets, wherever they are, based on charges of
treason. He alluded to the GOG's uncovering of still another
failed coup plot involving Patarkatsishvili after the January
5 election. While U.S. company News Corporation may be
interested in buying Imedi television, he said that it would
be better for News Corp to establish an entirely new station
on a different frequency if it is interested in doing
business in Georgia, rather than seek to revive Imedi. End
Summary.

TOWARD A BETTER PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION
--------------


2. (C) DAS Bryza congratulated Gurgenidze for President
Saakashvili's impending inauguration. Gurgenidze promised
his government would improve election procedures further in
advance of the Spring parliamentary elections. Bryza agreed,
saying this is crucial for Georgian democracy and for its
NATO membership aspirations. He told Gurgenidze the USG
view, following Embassy Tbilisi's extensive review of fraud
claims, is that there were some serious election
irregularities, but not massive fraud as alleged by the
opposition. The U.S. Embassy and OSCE, as well as DAS Bryza
himself, had brought the irregularities to the attention of
the government, which had provided explanations, and
expressed willingness to improve. Bryza said that in his
meetings with opposition leaders, they seemed to be beginning
to understand the opportunity they now enjoy to win real
power in Parliament, if they focus on developing and selling
electoral platforms to voters rather than remaining focused
on claims of fraud in the presidential election. Bryza told
Gurgenidze that opposition leader Levan Gachechiladze seems
worried that the radical elements of the opposition cannot be
controlled. At the same time, Gachechiladze seems willing to
move on, despite his refusal to admit the legitimacy of the
Saakashvili government. Gurgenidze agreed the opposition has
a good chance to succeed in the parliamentary elections, if
they can articulate a message that is attractive to the
voters. The National Movement knows it has its work cut out
for it, he said.

KOSOVO INDEPENDENCE AND RUSSIAN
RECOGNITION OF ABKHAZIA
--------------


3. (C) Gurgenidze expressed deep concern about the impending
declaration of independence by Kosovo and recognition of it
by the U.S. and EU. He sought clarification about when this
might happen, and Bryza said that it may occur after
elections in Serbia. Gurgenidze said he hopes it will take
place after February. Bryza said that although previously it
seemed that the Government of Russia was aware what a
Pandora's box recognition of Abkhazia's independence would
be, hard-liners in the Kremlin seem to be gaining strength.
A Russian recognition may be becoming more likely, he said.
Therefore, it is important to deploy a plan to isolate Russia
on this issue, including vigorous diplomacy around the world.
Gurgenidze said that Georgia is already working hard to
secure a non-recognition pledge from European governments.


TBILISI 00000116 002 OF 003



4. (C) Regarding the UN Friends process on Abkhazia, Bryza
expressed regret that the international community is focusing
solely on minutiae, such as the number of civilian police or
a no first use of force pledge by Georgia, rather than on the
urgent need for a political resolution of the Abkhazia
conflict. There are tensions between Moscow and Sukhumi that
offer opportunities, he said. Gurgenidze observed that
tension would be exploitable only if Russia refuses to
recognize Abkhazia's independence. Bryza said that a Russian
recognition would change the rules of the game in the region,
generating a new level of instability. The Abkhaz do not
want to be absorbed by Russia, he said, and we need to
determine whether the authorities in Sukhumi could in fact
accept a confederation, or some other solution, but not get
stuck on technicalities. Abkhaz de facto president Bagapsh
is a pragmatist, with a Georgian wife, he noted. Gurgenidze
worried that the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics will bring a lot
of money to Abkhazia that no pragmatist could resist. Bryza
suggested that Moscow's desire for a secure environment for
the Olympics may deter recognition. Georgia and the
international community need to play to the desires of the
Abkhaz who do not want to be part of Russia and offer an
alternative vision of economic cooperation with Georgia
related to the Olympics.

HOW TO IMPROVE RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA?
--------------


5. (C) Gurgenidze told Bryza that for him, it is hard to say
what, if anything, Georgia can do to make recognition harder
for Russia. He finds Russian overtures to end the wine ban
disingenuous, although it is good there is a semblance of
dialogue. In fact, he said, he does not care about or need
the Russian market anymore, given Georgia's reorientation of
its trade relationships. Russia's WTO accession is a card in
Georgia's control, he said, and Georgia has not changed its
position (reftel). The ball is in Russia's court to respond
to Georgia's proposal to solve the deadlock. He said that if
Russia does not respond to the proposal by the end of
November, he himself may attend the next Russia WTO accession
working group meeting in Geneva. Georgia will use the time
remaining before Kosovo's independence to try to find ways to
improve bilateral relations with Russia, but there is little
to work with beyond the wine and WTO issues. Bryza told
Gurgenidze that senior Russian Foreign Ministry officials had
recently acknowledged that South Ossetian de facto president
Kokoity's days are numbered, and seem to be looking for a way
forward, though Kremlin hard-liners may think differently.
The Sochi Olympics might offer some prospects, he said,
because Putin's personal reputation depends on their success.
Gurgenidze summed up by saying that Georgia is ready to
improve Russian relations and move forward.

CHEAP GAS FOR HOUSEHOLDS AND POWER ONLY
--------------


6. (C) Gurgenidze announced a change in Georgian policy on
natural gas imports. He said that the government had been
paternalistic toward the market, trying to maintain a low
overall blended price of gas for all consumers. Now it will
reserve cheaper gas received in return for pipeline transit
for household heating and power generation, and require
industrial customers to buy gas at any price they can from
Gazprom or Azerigaz. He predicted that Georgia will not need
its thermal generating plants as much if its plans for more
hydroelectric power production are realized in the near
future. "The government will no longer go begging around the
region for gas supplies," Gurgenidze said. He expects that
the new policy will cost the Georgian economy about 2 percent
of GDP, a blow the economy will be able to absorb, in his
opinion. He reported that Georgia's attempts last year to
persuade BP to be more flexible about supplying "reinjected
gas" to the Azeri government had gone nowhere, but he
understood BP's reasons for refusing to do so.

CONCERN ABOUT TRANSFER OF AN IRANIAN CRIMINAL
--------------


7. (S) Gurgenidze said that the GOG is very concerned about
Iran's reaction to the upcoming transfer of Iranian arms
trader, Amabeli, to the United States for trial. "It could
get very nasty," Gurgenidze said. The Ambassador told
Gurgenidze that the transfer would take place very fast to
minimize dangers surrounding it. After that, he said, the
Iranians may not make their objections public or follow
through on their threats, in order to avoid further damage to
their reputation. Gurgenidze was only partially reassured,
saying that in some measure the Iranian reaction depends on
how the USG plays the matter. He asked for a U.S. statement
underlining our strong support for Georgia, both on this

TBILISI 00000116 003 OF 003


matter and in general.

PATARKATSISHVILI STILL PLOTTING,
IMEDI NOT WORTH PURSUING BY NEWS CORP
--------------


8. (C) Bryza told Gurgenidze that the head of News
Corporation's European operations, Martin Pompadour, is
interested in working out a deal with the Georgian government
to take control of Imedi Television from its owner Badri
Patarkatsishvili, who admitted to offering USD 100 million to
a senior Ministry of Interior official in a possible coup
plot. Gurgenidze said that he had been speaking to Pompadour
every day until recently, but had not heard from him in the
past few days. It seemed to Gurgenidze that Patarkatsishvili
is not interested in selling the station. Pompadour had
suggested to Gurgenidze that a deal could involve getting
Patarkatsishvili out of Imedi and out of Georgian politics,
while allowing him to retain some of his assets. However,
Gurgenidze continued, Imedi has very few assets, and he
thinks News Corporation would be better off bidding for a new
television frequency and starting afresh. Such a deal would
contradict Georgia's intention to pursue Patarkatsishvili on
criminal charges of treason and subversion wherever he is.
Gurgenidze said the government has evidence of a failed plot
involving Patarkatsishvili and internal security officials
which occurred even after the January 5 elections.
Patarkatsishvili needs relatively small amounts of money to
continue such subversion and that is why the GOG wants to tie
up as many of his assets as possible around the world,
Gurgenidze said. Bryza emphasized that the USG does not want
to interfere with the rule of law or a Georgian prosecution
of Patarkatsishvili.


9. (U) This telegram has been cleared by DAS Bryza.
TEFFT